cheese
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Posts posted by cheese
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What a difference a single run makes (so far)! The high doesn't appear to be as favourably positioned this morning, being further west with slightly lower pressure levels (1030mb centred of Ireland instead, and then only Northern Ireland later on), not to mention cooler upper temperatures - in fact, 8C uppers start filtering down the east coast of the UK, even into East Anglia, although it does appear to be bringing the high pressure further east later in the run,but upper temperatures continue to decline until the bulk of the UK is covered by sub-10C uppers. Maximum temperatures look alright still until the 10th, when maximum temperatures will be 18 - 23C for most of the UK - that would definitely be very disappointing after the hype this spell has received so far. Ireland still shown to have 27C though.
Hopefully just a slight wobble, and the 06z is better.. or perhaps a trend? Could we all about to get kicked in the nads?
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Ireland being the warmest place during a heatwave is like the south west of England being the snowiest place during a cold spell - it just ain't right! lol
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There was a spell of very warm summer weather around the 2nd week of July 2005, it may turn out similar to that spell this year.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezp88CeVnJY
I'm hoping for something a little better than that - the month as a whole in this part of the world turned out to be extremely unremarkable. I think I'd take the preceding June just because temperatures exceeded 30C.
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Unfortunately it does look like that weak front that will affect on Scotland during Saturday evening will affect a fair few Northern parts on Sunday leading to a cloudier and not as warm day you would of thought although the front should be nothing more than just a bank of cloud. Hopefully as the high stays over the UK,the cloud should just melt away.
I think it looking more likely the hottest conditions will be reserve for western areas, the West Midlands area could look a good spot for the highest temps. Be interesting what will be the highest maximum in this hot spell will be.
As far as I can tell that front does not reach northern areas of England until after peak temperature times, around 20:00 or so, so I'm under the impression that it will have little impact on the maximum temperatures - GFS goes for 28-29C in the Vale of York on Sunday. I think this area of England will prove to be one of the warmest on most days as the GFS charts illustrate bar one day. Guess we'll wait and see - might be like the May 2012 spell which had a western bias, but still pipped 27C here in Yorkshire.
But yes, it would be ironic to get rain at 1030mb when we have struggled to get much rain over the past month with much lower amtospheric pressure! Sod's law and all that.
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Not liking the look of GFS once again being very progressive with the arrival of the front into northern areas of England - it actually looks fairly substantial on this run. Hopefully it won't be there come the 06z as GFS is having a hard time handling the trajectory, and it would be really, really bad to have rain ant 1030mb! Plus GFS is showing 27C at the same time for some of the rain-affected areas so I'm inclinded to believe it is being too progressive. Plus, few members actually support this outcome.
Maximum temperatures look a little better until Monday when 25C is confined to a narrow strip in the far S of England with values of 21 - 23 elsewhere, but these temperature projection charts aren't the most reliable - the high pressure is still strong, very strong even with 1035mb widespread, and I think GFS is really undercooking the values and doesn't take into account that the longer the high persists, the hotter it is likely to get, similar to 1976 albeit not as prolonged or hot. Definitely think 30C will go, almost certain actually.
Looking pretty good so far, only a few minor points to nitpick, the general theme is the same. Into the unreliable timeframe the retrogression of the high pressure really isn't pronounced at all, low pressure stays well at bay and uppers remain above 10C for the bulk of the British Isles.
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I can't understand why people judge a run by a couple of degrees on a notoriously poor models temperature charts. Seriously, there isn't much difference between 25oc and 27oc, so I'm not sure why people moan about it. Sun is sun, warm weather is warm weather - enjoy it.
There's a big, noticeable difference between 26C and 22C, however, the temperature I am now expected to see on Sunday. It's just one run, but then I am a naturally pessimistic person and never like to get my hopes up, and prefer to use reverse psychology in the hopes that I will be proven wrong!
I just want a hot spell, too - a warm, settled spell is fine, but from a weather enthusiasts point of view, a rather average 22C is extremely unremarkable and pretty boring. I am hoping for the hottest spell since July 2006, but if this up and coming spell of weather does only provide 25C at the very best, then it will be bested by other hot spells of recent summers, notably 2009.
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12z GFS rolling out now
This run isn't as hot for the north on Sunday (12z left 06z right)
See, this is what irritates me about the GFS temperature projection charts - as far as I can tell there is absolutely no reason why the temperature should be significantly lower on this run compared to the 06z when there is no nearby precipitation, it's practically the same as the 06z. So much variation from run to run seriously diminishes the credibility of the GFS.
And to make matters worse- the following day now only has a maximum temperature of 21C at the very best in the bulk of England, with only a very narrow strip of 25C in the far south of England. WTF? All of this under an area of high pressure as high as 1032mb. Sorry GFS, you're rubbish.
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Somebody has forgotten to tell the Hebrides that it's almost summer!
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Much milder today and, what's this, a big yellow ball in the sky? Oh my god.. what on earth could it be
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Rain here in east Leeds, not sure about back home. 2.1C here.
Rain here in east Leeds, not sure about back home. 2.1C here.
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Snowed here too. Left a slushy diposit on the ground, that's 10 days of snow falling so far in 2011.. here's looking to March.
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It's even 1.5C at Osmondthorpe, 56 meters asl. So maybe sleet or wet snow. If it's going to rain in Leeds then it'll rain everywhere else too, especially in Castleford which is even lower in elevation than Leeds city centre..
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I think March will prove interesting. Nothing extraordinary, but snow seems likely for northern and eastern areas especially with frosty nights. Winter isn't over yet.
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Temperatures have not really been higher than 3c over the past few days, but night time temperatures have been above freezing, mostly.
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- ^ It's been a wonderful day, for sure. Worried February would turn out snowless when it is usually the snowiest month of the year. These snow depths (5-10 cm) were only forecast for places above 300 meters and have reached 11 cm in places, but being at 198 meters above sea level, I am not overly surprised. There's 4cm of snow in Whitkirk, east Leeds, 90 meters above sea level, pretty impressive and a decent cover in the centre of Leeds, which sits in a valley.B)
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Moderate snow, radar shows it will come to an end soon, then the thaw will probably follow.
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Snow flakes becoming small now, probably the last time we'll see snow til next winter.
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Brother in east Leeds telling me that the snow is melting there a bit, can only imagine the same will happen here shortly.:unsure:
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Still snowing here but not as heavy.
Friend tells me no lying snow in Leeds city centre (60 meters asl), 1-2cm in Whitkirk (90 meters asl) on the eastern outskirts of Leeds.B)
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2 - 3 cm by the looks of it. I'll measure it soon when I find a ruler.B)I'm in Cookridge!
How much lying snow do you have?
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Oh how disappointing!
What part of Leeds are you in, or your elevation?
Cookridge, so not far from you. My elevation is in my signature.
My brother in east Leeds is telling me the snow is getting heavier and is settling more rapidly.
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Moderate snow after rain and sleet.
According to my brother in east Leeds, (90 meters asl), it's slushy and has only left a dusting on the grass.
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2.0c here, been steady all morning. We're actually the coldest place in the UK (excluding mountains).
Hot and settled spell discussion and temperature reports July 2013
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by cheese
True - but this is also the season for women wearing things far too right for them and getting muffin tops as a result.
Please, everyone, only wear revealing clothes IF YOUR BODY PERMITS!!