Stuie
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Posts posted by Stuie
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Fancy the ECM and Steve Murr both backtracking in the same day! that must be a meteorological first.
Nice to see Steve that the models are showing your "flavour".
Edit:
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This could be a case of "Careful what you wish for" scenario if this is anything of a trend. I think I said that in Dec.
Edit : typo
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If Carlsberg did weather forecasts. Considering this is T90 and was not showing any signs of a snow risk until Sunday, this to me, being 4 days away is closer than we were in Dec (albeit the GFS). It does get better over the weekend if it does pan out.
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If only. FI is for life not just for Christmas.
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Things must be edging west somewhat because images like this were nowhere to be seen over the weekend. Maybe a little battle could end up over us even if it is just the eastern areas. As I said this is new charts/hope.
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Considering it is Dec 11, spring is far from being around the corner. With the monster high out east it must help out at some point to feed in some cold air, just like that movie "From Russia with gloves"
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With all interest being focused on the East and the West (for cold), how about the North? It is FI but a surprise from a northerly? The Russian high moves north and joins the PV whilst in the mean time the Azores High is allowed to pay a visit but then gets crushed by a N/NW?
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Some very nice photo`s here. Here is an effort I was really happy with earlier this year. Currently a member of Ephotozine.
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Yes just edited, sorry! My GCSE French failed me pour une minute
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Oh, oh, we might a little sprinkling tomorrow in this neck of the woods (Anglia). I know it is not the 6 feet we were going to have via the crazy easterly but better than nothing, possibly.
EDIT: Tuesday morning
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Wondered which way it was going until this point. Brr
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I have always wanted snow as per probably 90% of posters recently. If this does come off it could be a case of "be careful what you wish for". Imagine the total meltdown of the country, today was a mess here in north Essex with 3cms but regardless of any snow, being extremely bitter would affect members of the elderly community who in this scenario, would be in trouble.
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Nice this morning in North Essex :-)
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No, Gibby is describing a cold pattern
BFTP
Ah ok. Always thought being under the JS meant warmer but I suppose with all other aspects that is not true. Thanks mate.
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The Jet Stream shows that the UK lies as the target for the South-eastwards moving flow for some considerable time as it moves down to Southern Europe where it continues East. later next week it ridge High over the Atlantic and crosses East to the North of the UK before turning SW from Scandinavia to the UK and South to Spain.
Hmm to me, with all my knowledge (sarcasm), this will introduce "warmer" air than we are having currently?
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It may be useful to those who are downbeat or are searching into the future for cold to look no further than the next few days.
tomorrow
Weds
-Courtesy of NW Extrasome snow about as those little features comes south in the cold northerly flow
Maximum temps.for my location are modelled to be 5,4,4,5C Tues to Fri and closer to freezing for more northern locations.
The cold is here and the way the 500hPa pattern is evolving this could well be the prelude to the main event.
Well maybe my post wasn`t as bad as I first thought. I sort of said the same thing but not as technically.
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I am interested in the later part of this week for the Anglia region. I have taken Ian`s comments on board from yesterday regarding precipitation and how it is a really bad aspect to look at if wondering if a model is performing/not performing.
With this in mind and not model judging, Friday has a lot of precipitation for most of the country which does appear wintry for northern areas.
Looking at the ECM and UKMO for Friday
When combined with this GFS precipitation prediction, the Anglia region could produce more than rain? Sorry in advance.
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Oh the ECM has changed it tune from the earlier run. The cold sets back in.
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How do we know that a model is 'performing badly' if things haven't happened yet?
Very true. 1 way of benchmarking I suppose you could monitor precipitation forecast. Lets see is the GFS is correct on Thursday (when it comes). With it only being 4 days away that seems a reasonable time frame to get it right or wrong. (Good/Bad)
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Looks like snow showers for the NE of the country on Wedneday
Enough for a covering in places I would think.
I would say a fair chance for most eastern areas including the south.
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After my optimism this morning of possible snow for E Anglia on Monday, the GFS precipitation run is totally agreeing with Ian Ferguson`s information earlier in this thread that it will be confined to the NE of England and into Scotland.
but it could be a sleety affair as it does move through the Anglia region.
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Quite like the look of this for Wednesday. Could be an interesting week.
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GFS rainfall almost identical to yesterdays run regarding precipitation for Monday. Am I reading this wrong as I see potential in E anglia for snow when this moves through Monday night morning? Not a lot being mentioned about this.
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Obvious rain for me and the rest ov wales .
It was the leading edge towards the East which I was pointing at. Just noticed you have edited.
Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
If this all goes Pete Tong this time, what are the mod`s going to do with all their spare time?