StingJet

Likewise mate, had sweet nada thus far this winter here save a 3hr 5mm drop couple of Sunday's back.. Patience tested but we continue to hope. The Extended Outlooks still remain very positive for a continuation of cold, with the odd "milder" incursion, and significant potential for widespread snow events .. hang in there !

Sorry yes , edited my post to reflect your comment

Today's Fax 12z detailing some beautiful Convergence lines (streamers) with significant east to west penetration of heavy wintery hazardous stuff Even way out west here on the IoA. North Wales (@15:45)

noted and actioned. That said my original post was purely aiming to provide some substantiation of the outputs from the Mets' Fax charts for the end of the week.

I used the BBC graphics purely to demonstrate the "potential" of the up and coming battleground event towards the end of the week. From my point of view, the Beeb are as good as any at this range. "Be out of date now anyway" this is true , just updated at 15:04. That said that applies to just about everything to do with "The Weather". unless you are at T +0

At the moment mate too far off to call, I'll be keeping a close eye on the Fax charts to see how the LPs out in the Atlantic develop as we run through the week. From the Beebs perspective though - Thursday pm the "Battleground" is poised (all very much "potential" at this range) Thursday into Friday By Saturday 06z

Keeping a close eye now on the formation of convergence lines over the north sea ("Streamers"), as these will have a big impact on where heavy, prolonged snow showers will form / fall over the coming days. The current NetWeather radar imagery is tracking the first convergence line to form across the north sea, into north east Scotland 06z Fax Monday T+24 06z Monday T+36 12z Tuesday T+48 00z Tuesday T+60 12z Wednesday T+72 00z, also note the occlusion off over northern France, potential for the South Coast? Wednesday T+96 12z, easterly wind easing somewhat, thus reducing the penetration of showers across the country east to west By Friday as the wind veers more to a south easterly, loose the fetch loose the potential for Convergence Shower bands (Streamers) Eyes then on the LP trying to push in from the w / sw with its associated fronts interacting with the "in place" cold air mass over the UK

850 Anomaly is off the richter scale

lol .. just returned to the laptop after a break to watch "Greenland" on Amazon .. to see the end of the 18z GFS run ..... talk about "Eye Candy" .. is the P6 also dialling in a shift of the earth's axis .. aka Iceland is the new North Pole

Interesting model ends run for the ECM, begs the question of what will the HP Cell over the UK do next ....? If read in conjunction with the GFS 12z @ +240 a shift back north / north east is plausible, opening the door for the 975mb LP south of Greenland to track Se , under cutting the HP,.. classic slider anyone ?

lol apart from that dark green blob over me ..... nonetheless ... fascinating potential over the next few days and out to months end for the UK as whole

A snip of ECM 0z @ +216 now compared to the ECM 12z @ +216 Euro cold 850s fighting back

I concur, and more than likely extended into March

T+48 for Monday 12 noon , Convergence potential through middle England to North Wales, and more fun for north east Scotland. The Occlusion off Kent still delivering the white stuff too

If only the face of the "beast (from the east)" , as depicted on the +216 would raise its "lower jaw" the uk would be in the line of fire for some exceptionally low 850's

lol .. may be she got her units mixed up and meant 3f

What we have seen over the past 24 hrs is a classic pincer movement by the ECM Op to shame the GFS Op into embarrassment. The ECM Op for the past few days has been a major outlier with its own mean. Of late the 3 have been reasonably consistent out to +144hrs. Post +144hs we saw a major change with the high pressure system around Svalbard. The GFS Op stalled it, the ECM Op continued to transition the HP through Greenland dissipating over Canada, leaving the north Atlantic in a typical winter zonal flow. The GFS Op 18z is very much a kin to the 24-48hrs old pattern of the outlier ECM Op that of a zonal flow with very little chance of a Scandi block and resultant mini / major, long / short term BFtE. I am now happy that the ECM Op has now switched and consistent with the MetO extended outlook , as you would expect it to be. Now the ECM has revealed its somewhat guarded hand for a cold easterly incursion , and laid its cards on table , it will be just a matter of time before the GFS realises what the ECM has done and switches back to be more commensurate with that of the ECM / MetO evolution Just to note: The transition of the ECM Op to a colder evolution, is not as some would see it "getting on board" the path to this cold evolution is completely different pattern than that portrayed by the GFS ... i.e. as above with respect to the large HP around Svalbard. The ECM would never align itself with the GFS ..lol that would be "sacrilegious"

I'd be with you on that TI. Yesterday evening I had a stab a raising a discussion of MetO and Beeb extended outlooks vs ECM OP , but failed miserably with no conclusive evidence to support my observations over recent weeks of the aforementioned two's extended outlooks running reasonably close to the ECM Op. Today's MetO extended outlook is consistent with their previous updates and still eludes to northern blocking / Scandi High for the run into the middle of Feb. As to the ECM Op still scratching my head on that one ..somewhat running to a Bartlet'eque solution at run's end

It will be interesting to see how the next week or so pans out, from my observations thus far during this "winter" the extended outlooks from the "two" have both been fairly consistent with each other and ECM Op. The MetO extended outlook at 4pm today has dialled in the potential for cold (er) synoptics for the UK into Feb, which does tally with the ECM mean, the outlier at present is therefore the ECM Op , as others have eluded to, and appears to be sticking to its guns. ECM Op for me has always been the "form horse" happy to stand corrected though

There was just a touch of sarcasm in my post ... Yes of course mate all models chop and change run to run, it has been noted though that when the ECM consistently delivers a certain "trend" i.e. in this case the UK still dominated by a fairly mobile west - east flow of LP systems heading our way off the Atlantic with mild sectors alternating with post cold front "cold pools" , with no signs of northern / scandi blocking or beast'esque synoptics, then it does have an uncanny knack of verifying, again substantiated by the Beeb and MetO extended outlooks.

The ECM is unfortunately always correct. Especially when you cross reference its outputs with the Beeb and MetO extended outlooks, which tend to be aligned with the ECM out to 240. I spent many years running the UK Stormtrack Topic on the GPS Speedsurfing Website , with the primary objective of calling off Speedsailing events here in the UK, the ECM / MetO have always been the form horse and tend to verify more often than other models such as the GFS .. .as you would well know mate

I am quite intrigued by the GFS 850 animation (Metociel) from say T300h to T384h portraying a tsunami of super cooled 850s coming across Scandi west towards Iceland, with the "lip" the "-12s" curling back and breaking over Scotland with -8s, nice feature. Better than making head or tail of the ECM 12 run ..

The Storm is forecast to bag out Friday as it moves further north and east, I would anticipate that the wraparound northerly will be markedly reduced in strength come Friday, to that effect minimising any notable storm surge down the east coast .... Nonetheless the north sea not the most hospitable of places come Thursday, Sorry for the duplication .. I don't post often Spent most of my forum time over the years on the GPS SpeedSurfing Site running the UK StormTrack Topic.

The Storm is forecast to bag out Friday as it moves further north and east, I would anticipate that the wraparound northerly will be markedly reduced in strength come Friday, to that effect minimising any notable storm surge down the east coast .... Nonetheless the north sea not the most hospitable of places come Thursday

GFS 12z still dialling in an F10 Bomb for Thursday, support from the Jet Stream is also amplified from this mornings 06z run, MetO 12z also amplifying Thursday's Storm, but the Jet taking the Storm further east towards Denmark. I cannot recall a Storm of 950mb located over the North Sea in my 30+ years of Storm Tracking; Oct 87 and Jan 2007 being the most notable.