smithyweather
-
Posts
783 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by smithyweather
-
-
These are astonishing charts for the run up to mid october from tonight's Ecm 12z op run, we have had 2 EPIC runs this evening, the Gefs 12z mean and now this, if either are anywhere close, we will have indian summer conditions becoming established next week which could then persist until beyond mid month with one of the most prolonged warm, dry & sunniest october spells for a long while.
Again I don't know what the excitement is because we all know this is going to be cloudy and 18c. We cannot sunbathe in that and we certainly cannot swim in the ocean because it is far too cold.
So really it is not good.
-
3
-
-
Very good nice to see the end of this awful awful awful tropical crap. I am looking forward to my first snow and frost at the middle or end of the month.
-
1
-
-
Naw I don't think we will. We are all eager to get off. Could you actually explain why its beneficial??Well then
I think this is a bit too early, but this is the kind of chart I am personally looking to see signs off appearing at the end of October going into November.
Coldies need to hang tight for a couple more weeks, the sluggish jet will allow us to move onto the cold side when the time is right, what we don't want is a repeat of October 2011 where we had a similar set up which then broke down when the polar vortex set up over Greenland and set up a zonal pattern for the next 3 and a half months. Just because it's warmer than average now doesn't mean it will stay like that for much longer (beyond mid-month)
-
An easterly is not good here.Some coldies need to look at the bigger picture and see that this pattern is helping to build snow over Siberia and hold up sea temperatures in the north Atlantic. It puzzles me why they would want full blown zonal weather which would mean a raging polar vortex over Greenland.
....unless they are not coldies at all
And lets be honest we are all struggling to see what benefit this mild weather is doing!!
-
It says the winter temps will rise by 1.7c...
-
I think the BLOCK could hold until november,
well if that happens i'm going to have to have a nervous breakdown!! 1 month of cloud!
of coarse plus five is average for October.
and of coarse low pressure of this magnitude up against heights that is already retreating then its very possible low pressure will win in the end settled till November could well be possible but very unlikely as interaction with season change is almost certain at some point.
keep an eye on the teleconnections all those that are bored of this type of weather.
It won't give cold weather though and usually we get a few days of subzero uppers each October.
-
2
-
-
Thanks for reminding us.
-
Cooler air filtering south midweek as the high repositions itself but remaining warm in the south west.
Thank bloody god!!!
-
To be honest I will take the euro high set up, look at the ECM ensemble mean, there could be snow cover over most of the North-eastern half of Russia in 10 days time, certainly will be cold enough.
I think you've made that aware these days.
-
I know they go on about how great it is and how its gonna be sunny but it never is!!!Autumn?? Last nights low here was 15.2c. Have not seen a single digit temp since 19th sept. It just seems like near constant warmth now since early july (bar some cooler days during sept) and im getting rightly fed up with it. Humid dull mild nonsense. Then we have certain people in the MOD thread with their little agendas,HP this Hp that blah ,blah blah. The same stuff now for how many wks??
-
1
-
-
I don't think it will though. Each night is double figures and it does not cool down.I think this October is different though. The jet stream is once again exhibiting some strange behaviour. Far from flat and zonal. We happen to be on the warmer side of the jet but other mid latitude locations are looking to get an early pasting of winter. It's symptomatic of how the jet has been for 5 or so years now.I don't think we'll have a record challenger of an October though anyway. I suspect fog and frost will become more common as we progress through the month.
-
1
-
-
I am extremely doubtful about mid 20s
-
NOT 16c at night!!!!!!!What is proper October weather though? Looks pretty decent after Friday.
-
1
-
-
16c
Cloudy.
For goodness sake. When the hell is this ever going to end.
-
Its 16c at 7 in the morning here right now.
For god sake...
-
Wow thats a pretty big gain.
So much for this theory of no big gains due to large snow cover.
-
14c out,
In 2nd October at 10pm, honestly...
-
Maybe. Not sure but it is not normal to have the trees this colour.There is more colour and it seems to have started earlier this year, maybe regional variation, maybe the cold March ?
-
But what weather would that give us?Whilst not as warm the ECM creates an absolute beast of a high, big core of 1040mb, only the far north of Scandinavia and Russia is not kept settle under that
Any breakdown would be a long way off here.
Wouldn't mind sunshine and frost.
-
Well here the leaves are very bright theres lots or oranges and reds and yellows which tbh is uncommon here. It's more of an american thing.
-
Nope happens every single year.
-
Alot of cold air in Greenland.
-
Leaves started turning here in August. A few trees are now empty of leaves. I noticed this first today.
-
I hope I don't regret saying this. But I hope that the cold comes and kicks a few members in the ass after rubbing in all this warmth over this past few weeks. Those irritating smiley faces...
-
3
-
Have you turned your central heating on yet ?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Perhaps you should get a smaller house then.
Not here, we don't really get 16c mins in October where I live. This is far from normal.