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smithyweather

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Posts posted by smithyweather

    Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I would say low to potentially mid 70's F for the south & east and potentially low 20's c for the north and west would be summery by early to mid october standards, the near continent, the azores and southern europe is still very warm and that is where our air will be coming fromPosted Image these are the best charts you could wish for at this stage of the autumn..huge potential with an anticyclone becoming centred to the east enabling a warm flow.

    So you say that its gonna be 21c and sunny here next week? Right... Well i'm not gonna bet on that happening.
    • Like 2

    Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On the 20th Dec 2010 in N IRE all i could find was these;Ballykelly (5 m) -11.0 °CBallypatrick Fst (156 m) -3.0 °CBelfast/Aldergrove AP (68 m) -12.0 °CCastlederg (50 m) -18.0 °CGlenanne (160 m) -10.0 °CLough Fea (227 m) -13.0 °CPortglenone (65 m) -10.0 °CSt Angelo (47 m) -13.0 °CDo you any info on -23 ?

    Ballykelly reahced -13c and st angelo -17c i think.

    Got to agree with you there. That cold just sat there completely still for days on the runup to Christmas Day. Rural Shropshire where I was for Christmas hit -18C and if it had extended into Jan, some temperature records would have been beaten during what is our coldest month.

    Agree here I think I could've reached -25c if it had've continued for another 10 days or so. The problem in british isles is every time we get near -20 or -30c the cold ends.

    Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I don't think it will be a cloudy high, patchy cloud cover yes but not overcast apart from early mornings before it breaks up,, although winds will initially be a moister sw'ly drawn up from the azores, the wind direction then looks like backing more to due south to se'ly and we will then import drier continental air and clearer skies with longer sunny spells and warmth.

    Now is this for England or is it British isles wide?

    Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by smithyweather

    I have no idea how you would do that. I am still finding difficulty after all this time, tbh most of the members just post charts and say 'oh this would be brilliant for cold or warmth' but they don't explain why. 

     

    I don't know what a cloudy or clear high would look like i'm just basing it on experience on where I live and usually here the azores high will bring cloud and low diurnal ranges. 

    As for what makes it a cloudy high? Not got a clue but i'm going to take a wild guess and say that the moisture from the atlantic (azores high) produces high humidity which is condensed into clouds and since the sun is not strong enough the cloud just stays for days on end. 

    Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by smithyweather

     

    But what is so good about 18c and cloud in mid-October? Isn't about time we have some more autumnal weather???

    We've got ample time for cold weather yet

     

    we've got the second half of October, November, December, January, February and possibly march

     

    Something more unsettled / cooler is bound to arrive at some point but now those seeking cooler weather need to have a bit of patience

     

    Any way ECM ends settled but cooler which could allow fog to  develop overnight and maybe some frosts in sheltered parts

     

    Posted ImagePosted Image

     

     

    Yea but it's October and not August. Maybe you didn't notice but it's warmer in the British isles more than it is colder so I think we've already had ample warmth it's about time we have some cold. So no there actually is not ample time for cold.

     

    All i'm asking for is frosts and sunshine, i'm not expecting snow or anything just some cold nights i.e not 12c...

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Another UPGRADE..The GEFS 12z mean looks even more settled than the 6z and also better than the 12z last night, high pressure doesn't just hold it's ground, it takes ground and forces the lows further away from the uk, eventually the anticyclone slowly drifts further east and we continue to have a warm southerly sourced airflow..this is looking like a very pleasant spell on the way from saturday onwards towards mid month at least, no sign of a breakdown here, just a gentle erosion of the fine weather across the far northwest as time goes on.Posted Image

     

    But what is so good about 18c and cloud in mid-October? Isn't about time we have some more autumnal weather???

    • Like 2

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Actually for northern Ireland it's 12.5C for maximum temperature and that's over the whole month, mid-teens is average for this point in the year generally.Single figure maxima is unseasonably cold for October in the most part, just as temperatures still reaching 20C is unseasonably warm.

    The average high for today is 14c.

    Actually for northern Ireland it's 12.5C for maximum temperature and that's over the whole month, mid-teens is average for this point in the year generally.Single figure maxima is unseasonably cold for October in the most part, just as temperatures still reaching 20C is unseasonably warm.

    The average high for today is 14c.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    would rather have the hp spell, its 0ctober, no snow for me yet, lets have it warm and sunny until Nov

    Yes its October an autumn month. By 15th October my average high is 9c not 20c. I do not want 20c and sunshine in a month with single figure average highs. As someone said earlier I prefer my seasons to be seasons.
    • Like 2
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