Summer Sun

Nice

A warmer GFS this afternoon thanks to an easterly not often we say that!! Welcome the heat from the east

A warm easterly is knocking on the door this afternoon UKMO heading towards an easterly as well

UKMO is fine and settled for the weekend The new working week see's the high firmly in place with lows getting forced up to Iceland and Greenland

TBF we can really get much worse than 2012 realistically that must surely but one of those 1 in however many year events

Taking a look at the Birmingham ensemble we see temperatures hitting average from early next week onwards to mid June Rainfall remains low through-out with the only slight peak around June 8th

spring will be coldest in 50 years, Met Office says This spring is on track to be the coldest for more than 50 years, provisional Met Office figures suggest. This month has seen lower than average temperatures and it has been wetter than usual, forecasters said. The UK's mean temperature for spring - based on figures from 1 March to 28 May - is currently 6C. If conditions stay the same in the last days of May, it will be the coldest spring since 1962, and the fifth coldest since records began in 1910. The Met Office said earlier figures from 1 March to 15 May suggested spring was on track to be the sixth coldest since records began, and the coldest since 1979. But cooler than average weather in the past fortnight has pushed the mean temperature for the season slightly lower, it said. 'Cold air' The provisional temperature for this spring goes against recent form for the season, forecasters said, with eight of the past 10 years seeing warmer than average springs compared to the long-term (1981-2010) average of 7.7C. The main reason for the low temperatures in spring was a colder than usual March, which had a mean temperature of 2.2C to 3.3C below the long-term average. This made it the coldest March since 1962. The forecasters added that the colder than average conditions had been caused by frequent easterly and northerly winds, bringing cold air to the UK from polar and northern European regions. Earlier this month, snow hit Shropshire and Devon and Cornwall, while Wales saw widespread snow in March. Rainfall amounts for March and April were below average, but May is already wetter than average, with the average area receiving 86mm of rain up to the 28th day of the month - 70mm is the average. The Met Office said this suggested that spring overall would be slightly drier than average - but not as dry as the springs of 2010 and 2011. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22718944 Following the cold spring of 62 maybe of our "older" members all know what happened the following winter..................

There were no warnings issued at all as far as I know Just took a look at the radar pressure maps and high pressure is now moving into western Ireland the leading edge is currently around Cork

I can remember June 2012 well for the wrong reasons the first 3 days had highs of just 13.5c, 12.2c and 12.0c

Out of the t144 models this morning UKMO (left) is the pick of the big 3 for sure (GFS middle ECM right) Beyond T144 ECM is the pick with the high never leaving All in all a good start to summer coming up much better than 12 months ago

Hot across TurkeyUnsettled across EuropeIssued: 0530hrs Thursday 30th May 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Fine across the Mediterranean Today Some rain to come across southern Britain may become heavier across France. The south of France will be very windy but dry and sunny. Showers are forecast across Holland with rain across Belgium into southern parts of Germany while frequent and heavy showers affect most parts of Italy. Rain to come across Czech Republic and Austria with the risk of some heavy showers today across Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Slovenia and Poland with the risk of thunder. Lots of fine, sunny weather will prevail across Greece, Bulgaria, mania, the Ukraine and Turkey. Heavy showers are expected to affect Belarus, Russia and the Baltic States. Norway will see some outbreaks of rain but largely dry and sunny across Sweden and Finland. Fine, dry day across Spain and Portugal with long sunny spells and he looks fine eastward across the Balearics into Corsica and Sardinia. Friday A dry day across England today. Continued unsettled across France with showers and loner spells of rain. A strong mistral affects a sunny southern France. Fair and dry across Belgium, Holland and Denmark while rain is forecast across Germany. Heavy rain is expected across Austria with lots of heavy showers across the Czech Republic, Croatia, Serbia, Romania, Hungry and western pasts of the Ukraine. The eastern Ukraine, Belarus, southern Russia, Greece and Turkey will be very warm and dry with sunny spells. Hot today across Turkey. A showery day to come across Italy, some heavy with sunny spells. Heavy rain moves into Poland with lots of heavy showers across the Baltic States and northern Russia. Just a few showers across Finland and Norway otherwise dry. Sunny and dry across Sweden today. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20130530

Becoming drier Warmer Low gives way to high pressure http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130530

Yes its seasonal for once which is a dam sight better than what we've had at times this year so far

The ECM ensemble run provides another positive update certainly to a week Thursday

Either mother nature has decided she's has enough of giving us rubbish summers or its the clam before the Atlantic Hurricane season gets underway

ECM has finally updated albeit not on wetterzentral yet and its looking fine we've had worse updates Low pressure anchored across Greenland is a huge positive

Whilst we await the delayed ECM Liam Dutton has put together a detailed blog on next weeks potential taste of summer http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/taste-summer-2/3798

ECM is running late this evening so it will be later than normal before it updates fully

Another settled run from the GFS ensemble

No worries of a trough developing on UKMO at t144

Looking at the early stages of this afternoons 12z and Friday sees the first rise in temperatures with 20c getting reached across the south Saturday see's mid to high teens widely with 20c possible in the south but a tad down on Fridays values Into Sunday and the south see's temperatures in the high teens again 20c is possible with mid teens further north the far north and west of Scotland is the coolest place with temperatures just into double figures UKMO shows the high moving in on Friday before moving further east during the weekend GFS is developing a tough to the east early next week which needs watching as rain would be around if it comes off in the east however UKMO looks a lot more settled for Monday than GFS is so who knows a case of watch this space The high is firmly in place on UKMO at t120 a lot better than GFS at the same timeframe

The ensembles have very little scatter on them this afternoon for the uppers temperatures looking like we'll run at or just above average as we move into next week and beyond Some areas are going to be seeing very low rainfall over the next few weeks if these prove to be correct

Cool, cloudy and damp in darlo today the rain appears to have left now roll on the weekend when the sunshine and high pressure returns

June settles in June is nearly here and summer is around the corner - but will the weather play ball? Stav Danaos looks ahead to this weekend. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/22704656 Weekend Mainly dry Sunny spells

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Jun 2013 to Thursday 27 Jun 2013: Probably staying rather changeable with further spells of unsettled weather, but some drier and brighter interludes are likely too. Mostly likely a northwest - southeast split with the best of any drier brighter weather in the north and west, with the south and east more likely to see the most unsettled conditions. Temperatures generally near, or on the cool side of normal, although still feeling pleasant in sunnier interludes. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=regionalForecast&fcTime=1369782000