Summer Sun

WSI expecting another poor summer for the UK There track record aint the best mind so who knows they forecast March to be warmer than normal in the UK early this year and we all know what happened............

The ECM ensemble run keeps up the growing trend for pressure to build later this week

BBC weather for the week ahead

Looking at the models tonight and summer could well start on a settled warm note a far cry from 12 months ago when we had rain, rain and more rain

ECM 12z ends potentially iffy for the north with the low across Iceland just extending southwards a bit but all in all a superb run not to be sniffed at

And there we have it ECM is there just a day behind UKMO And with the low getting forced into Greenland that's a positive sign. Another positive is that high pressure is having a say in things this year unlike 12 months ago a decent start to summer is on the cards

Well ECM isn't bringing the high in as quickly as UKMO at t144 Where as UKMO has this ECM is going in the right direction just not as quickly as UKMO it won't be until mid week before we see good agreement on things for the weekend but the signs are certainly there now

East of the pennines should see hazy sunshine for a good part of tomorrow certainly well into the afternoon before the rain arrives later in the day with temperatures around 15 to 17c

A good set of ensembles as well with low rainfall for the foreseeable and a trend upwards for the uppers What a difference 12 months makes!

Indeed there been very cautious however this afternoons UKMO run for the end of the week could see that changed come tomorrow

Now UKMO is on board in the semi reliable we should begin to see the met office move from the cautious side to the more positive side (providing it lasts more than one run of course!) A BBQ weekend in store for many if UKMO is right this afternoon

10.4c to the 25th

The sun is saying we're going to have the longest cold spell since 1968 with June, July and August are set to be cooler than average We know what happens when the papers come up with these stories the opposite happens just like in winter http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4942798/Brrritains-cold-spell-is-longest-since-68.html#ixzz2UO5IQ5Eo

Britain to bask in Bank Holiday sun...briefly http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/402645/Britain-to-bask-in-Bank-Holiday-sun-briefly SUN LIKE IT HOT... FOR NOW http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/316718/Sun-like-it-hot-for-now/

Showers, rainFine across the MediterraneanIssued: 0530hrs Sunday 26 May 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Best across Greece and Turkey Today A windy day across north central parts of Europe. Continued quite windy again through southern France. Largely dry today across much of England and Wales. Western and southern parts of France should also be dry with sunny spells. A scattering of showers is expected across eastern France with an area of more persistent and heavy rain expected for Belgium across through Holland, all of Germany into western parts of Poland and across Austria. Lots of showers are forecast for eastern Poland down through Hungary, the Czech Republic across into Croatia, Serbia, and northern parts of Italy. Southern parts of Italy looks mostly dry and sunnier. Lots of warm sunshine is forecast across Greece to Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. Just a few sharp showers develop across the Ukraine and Belarus otherwise a dry mostly sunny day there. Most of Scandinavia looks settled with sunny spells expected from Norway across Denmark through Sweden and Finland. Very warm with some heavy showers and sunny spells across Russia. Another warm day across Spain and Portugal with lots of sunshine and just the odd afternoon shower across central and southern parts of Spain. A fine day with long sunny spells expected from the Balearics eastward across Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily. Monday Rain comes in western England today. Lots of fine, dry weather will extend from eastern England into France, Belgium and Holland. Showers are in the forecast for Denmark with rain across Germany, Austria, Poland and the western Ukraine. Heavy showers are expected across Belarus and Russia. The weather looks fine and dry across Croatia into Serbia into Slovenia, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. Fine and sunny as well across Italy, Corsica, Sardinia to the Balearics. A few showers develop across eastern Spain with western Spain and Portugal dry and mostly sunny. Unsettled and windy across Norway and Sweden with showers and rain while Finland should be fair and dry. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20130526

Unsettled then drier Temperatures closer to normal Low then high pressure http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130526

Maybe not so great in the south but those in the north would see the best of the weather both in terms of sunshine and warmth

Once again we have another excellent set of ensembles from ECM If this keeps up we'll be seeing a backtrack in the met office outlooks thats for sure

Very positive steps from ECM again this sunny evening Either the models are leading us down the garden path again or the data the met office are using is giving them the wrong signals the data we have is looking very positive

ECM is now showing high pressure trying to force its way in later next week UKMO and GFS at t120 so we can compare the 3

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/?p=2701902

Sunshine surprise! Warm weather over the Bank Holiday after the coldest spring for 30 years http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2330780/UK-weather-Sunshine-surprise-Warm-weather-Bank-Holiday-coldest-spring-30-years.html#ixzz2UKNeqlKw Blooming boost for cidermakers http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/402427/Blooming-boost-for-cidermakers

Probably sat outside like me enjoying the sunshine UKMO is showing continued attempts to push high pressure in towards the end of next week As is GFS Way out into FI and the high is still there Over to ECM now

TBH I wouldn't worry about them updates currently best just to keep looking at the ensembles and the models for trends the met office updates can and do change frequently

UKMO is looking positive this morning with high pressure edging in by the end of next week Something ECM also shows