Summer Sun

Only thing I'd say is the 06z run isn't the best remember how many times we were told to bin it in the winter?

Heavy Snow across the Balkans Heavy Rain across Iberia Issued: 0530hrs Monday March 25th 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Temperatures Remain Subzero across Scandinavia and Eastern Europe Today Bitterly cold and windy across United Kingdom but mainly dry. Apart from some patchy rain across southern France looks mainly dry there. Heavy rain is expected to affect Portugal and western Spain with eastern Spain across to the Balearics. Dry with sunny spells. Very unsettled and windy with outbreaks of heavy rain across Corsica, Sardinia, Sicily and into Italy. Some snow to come across southern parts of Germany and across the Alps with the risk of heavier snow moving into Austria and Slovenia. Outbreaks of snow are also forecast across northern parts of Croatia with rain across southern Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia. A dry but cold day to come across Belgium, Holland, Denmark and northern Germany. Dry as well with sunny spells list of Poland, Romania and the western Ukraine. Cloudy but dry across the Baltic States, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. Expect a few heavy showers today across Greece , with Turkey having a dry day with sunny spells. Heavy snow is forecast for a large part of Russia and eastern parts of the Ukraine. Some snow to come across northern parts of Finland, otherwise southern Finland, Sweden and Norway will be very cold and windy but dry and sunny. Strong westerly winds again will be blowing through the Straits of Gibraltar will also be very windy throughout the Mediterranean region. Tuesday Cold with a few snow showers across eastern parts of Britain. Most parts of France along with Belgium and Holland also northern Germany should be dry today with sunny spells. A few snow showers may affect Denmark. An area of heavy snow is forecast across southern parts of Germany, the Alps into Austria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Austria, southern parts of the Ukraine and Romania. Snow may be mixed with sleet and rain across parts of Serbia and Bosnia Herzegovina. Frequent and heavy showers with the risk of thunder are expected across Greece and Bulgaria with some light rain in the far west of Turkey. Most of central and eastern parts of Turkey will be dry but rather cloudy. Lots of dry weather is expected across northern Europe into Scandinavia with sunny spells through Norway, Sweden and most of Finland. Some light snow may affect the far south of Poland, otherwise a dry day here. Some patchy snow is possible across the Baltic states but a dry day to come across, Belarus and northern parts of the Ukraine. Northern and eastern areas of Russia will see further outbreaks of snow western Russia. Dry but very cold. Cloudy across Italy today with some patchy outbreaks of mainly light rain. Few showers with scattered around Sicily and Sardinia with a dry day through the Balearics. Another very windy day through the Straits of Gibraltar and across the Mediterranean region. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

One thing GFS and ECM both go for this morning is milder uppers as we go into April Starts in the south first before spreading north GFS for the same dates Don't worry folks an April heatwave is coming - http://www.dailymail...ite-Easter.html

Staying cold Rain in south Bitterly cold and plenty of dry weather for most, but rain in the south http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130325

It still looks like the cold air will moderate next week once the coldest uppers start to ease precipitation is now looking low for all of us The Birmingham ECM ensemble also shows temperatures moderating next week with the high going from 2c to 3c this week to between 6c and 11c with the average running at 7c to 9c Still below the seasonal average but better than what we have now The average minimum also rises next week

The ECM ensemble for Birmingham shows temperature making a recovery of sorts from Easter Monday with temperatures not getting lower than 5c and not getting higher than 11c (to the 7th) So another bitter week this week but a slightly recovery in temperatures is possible from next week with the Ens average running between 6c and 9c Temperatures look like staying well below the seasonal average of 12c to 13c for a while yet

Latest from Matt Hugo All 51 of the EC ENS members keep the cold block in place into next weekend with an E or NE'ly. Very little precip makes it N as a result 12z EC ENS supports the ECMWF model and keeps the blocked pattern going into early April. Little northward progression of fronts on Fri.

Still 2 weeks away yet never say never

ECM short ensemble the control and Op look to be head above the zero line right at the end full ensemble will be out shortly Full ensemble control and Op just on or just above the zero line from around half way

Deep drifts, high winds and now deadly ice: Britain faces perfect winter storm as forecasters warn of perilous conditions until 'White Easter' http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2OUKo5iVg

Latest text forecast for NE Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday: Continuing very cold in brisk easterly winds. Often cloudy, with occasional light sleet or snow showers likely, but also with bright or sunny intervals at times. Overnight frosts will form. Issued at: 1600 on Sun 24 Mar 2013

Yep ECM remains cold only positive is the cold should relax into April easing the cold feel slightly the hunt for proper warmth goes into April now

Well a poor run from ECM pretty hard to find any positives and remarkably the northern blocking is shown to build again in FI!! The only positive is the cold should moderate into April slightly and given the strength of the sunshine is would feel pleasant enough out of the wind. Still this is FI and it could be an outlier ample time for a change but the rest of March is looking cold now and the hunt for a pattern change now goes into April. There could be a positive in that when the pattern does finally shift it will put us in good stead for summer.............. In the mean time

Straw clutching I know but slightly milder air into the SW on ECM at t120 Heavy snow is likely somewhere in the south where the boundary lies

GFS full ensemble for London Good agreement there on no return to the bitter cold we have now a relaxation in the cold looks likely to occur later this week

Well we still look on course to finally loose these really cold uppers during the Easter weekend Well all in all not a bad run from GFS positive steps tonight in that we slowly start to loose the coldest uppers from later this week in the south west first By Easter Saturday the coldest uppers start to relax further north This process continues through Easter Sunday Easter Monday see's the 0c uppers head further south again but its only parts of Scotland and maybe Northumberland which are left with the coldest uppers Temperatures should be higher than of late someone may hit 10c but 6c to 8 or 9c looks likely along the south coast (5c to 7c widely across the country) Into April and the coldest uppers have relaxed for most So all in all not too bad the positive step is the coldest uppers finally look like relaxing starting later this week and continuing for most through the weekend temperatures would continue to be below average but given the stronger sunshine now it wouldn't feel too bad in any sunnier periods Fridays snow event looks like been exclusive to the south our chance of snow this week comes from the North sea

Well all in all not a bad run from GFS positive steps tonight in that we slowly start to loose the coldest uppers from later this week in the south west first By Easter Saturday the coldest uppers start to relax further north This process continues through Easter Sunday Easter Monday see's the 0c uppers head further south again but its only parts of Scotland and maybe Northumberland which are left with the coldest uppers Temperatures should be higher than of late someone may hit 10c but 6c to 8 or 9c looks likely along the south coast (5c to 7c widely across the country) Into April and the coldest uppers have relaxed still chilly for the time of year but temperatures would at least be higher than they have been of late So all in all not too bad the positive step is the coldest uppers finally look like relaxing starting later this week and continuing for most through the weekend temperatures would continue to be below average but given the stronger sunshine now it wouldn't feel too bad in any sunnier periods

More inline with the met offices thoughts I did say a few posts above GFS looked a bit quick Milder air is progressing

It looks like GFS is going to follow its previous 2 runs and bring in milder air later this week Less cold air just starting to edge into the SW at t102

Looking at the chart the met office / beeb used for the week ahead forecast GFS seems a bit quick in bringing the milder into the SW and ECM seems a bit slow they'll both come into agreement over the coming days but even ECM is looking slightly milder now for the start of April unlike 12 hours or so earlier when it "went off on one" and brought in -8 uppers 12z yesterday 00z this morning As you were from GFS so far t120 onwards is when the milder air was showing this morning fingers crossed its still there

Saw a few Daffs here just coming into flower there on the roundabout on Yarm road at the retail park. Other than that there all closed still

Plenty of Daffs here just not many in flower yet

Freak spring snow causing chaos and death http://www.express.c...chaos-and-death BRITAIN ENDURES WORSE MARCH IN 5O YEARS http://www.dailystar...ch-in-5o-years/

BBC weather for the week ahead First half of the week Staying very cold Bitter wind Risk of Further snow End of the Week Increasing risk of Snow Milder air moving into the south west

Yeah what must be a concern now is when it does warm up there is going to be a flooding risk from all this snow melt there are some serious totals in places with the real prospect of more later this week -