Summer Sun

Mild and dry start to next week High pressure over Scandinavia could bring warm air from the continent to the United Kingdom early next week, giving us mild and dry weather. The south east could even see 20C if conditions are right and the sun emerges from behind the clouds. http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/19994371

The UK has just experienced its "weirdest" weather on record, scientists have confirmed. The driest spring for over a century gave way to the wettest recorded April to June in a dramatic turnaround never documented before. The scientists said there was no evidence of a link to manmade climate change. But they say we must now plan for periodic swings of drought conditions and flooding. The warning came from the Environment Agency, Met Office and Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) at a joint briefing in London. Terry Marsh from the CEH said there was no close modern precedent for the extraordinary switch in river flows. The nearest comparison was 1903 but this year was, he said, truly remarkable. What was also remarkable - and also fortunate - was that more people did not suffer from flooding. Indeed, one major message of the briefing was that society has been steadily increasing its resilience to floods. Paul Mustow, head of flood management at the Environment Agency, told BBC News that 4,500 properties were flooded this year. "But if you look back to 2007 when over 55,000 properties were flooded we were relatively lucky - if lucky is the right word - for the impacts we saw this summer," he said. "The rainfall patterns affected different areas - and also there were periods of respite between the rain which lessened the impact." Sarah Jackson from the Met Office confirmed that they did not discern any pattern that suggested manmade climate change was at play in UK rainfall - although if temperatures rise as projected in future, that would lead to warmer air being able to carry more moisture to fall as rain. She said that this year's conditions were partly caused by a move to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which would be likely to lead to more frequent cold drier winters - like the 1960s - and also wetter summers for 10-20 years. "Longer term we will see a trend to drier summers but superimposed on that we will always see natural variability," she said. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19995084

Already posted in the "Weather In the General Media thread" yesterday

We might be getting towards the end of October but some warm temperatures are showing for early next week for the south But its short lived and by the end of the week temperatures return to near normal values

Right trying to convert this to English I get Thank you Mr R* we shall see. From your reply I take it you/r not in the pro Global Warming crew. Thank goodness for that (*would that be Rybris Ponce? Reference to post No 1243)

Stupid post what if tonight's GFS 12z brings the northerly back? that will make your post rather stupid

I have no idea what he said either

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Nov 2012 to Thursday 15 Nov 2012: Indications are that through the first half of November, mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. Some drier and less unsettled spells are likely, particularly across eastern and southeastern parts of the UK for a time. There will, however, also be showers or longer periods of rain affecting most parts but more especially the north and west. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts through this period. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible with mist and fog patches developing and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland. Updated: 1243 on Thu 18 Oct 2012 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Pardon? Stuarts post was yesterday mine was today

UK Outlook for Monday 22 Oct 2012 to Wednesday 31 Oct 2012: Often cloudy, but generally dry, with the best of any sunshine towards the southeast. Some rain or drizzle is possible across northern Scotland at first, with a chance of a little rain in northern and western areas from time to time through the latter part of the week. Breezy in places, particularly in the west and around eastern coasts. Temperatures near or above normal, and perhaps locally very warm any sunshine in the southeast. Temperatures returning to nearer average from later next week, with an increasing risk of overnight frost in the north. A greater chance of rain across the UK into the following week, although mainly in the west and northwest. Still plenty of dry weather though, particularly in the southeast. Updated: 1119 on Thu 18 Oct 2012 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

GFS is looking much more settled on the 06z run All the cold air seems to be further east this morning

Heavy rain across Spain Unsettled across western Europe Issued: 0530hrs Thursday 18th October 2012 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Fine across the Balkans, eastern Europe Today Windy across northern Europe and in the central Mediterranean with gales. Expect rain across eastern England into western parts of the Low Counties across northern France with heavy rain across Portugal and western Spain. Some rain too for northern Spain but dry in the south. Dry as well across central and southern France across into eastern parts of Belgium, Holland and across all of Germany into Poland. Lots of fine, settled weather too across The Baltic States, western Russia, The Ukraine south across Romania, Bulgaria into Greece and Turkey. Fine as well with sunny spells for the former Yugoslavia, Italy, the Czech Republic and Austria. Rain is forecast across Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland. It will be warmest across Turkey today. Friday Rain is expected across eastern England and across the west of France into western Belgium, western Holland, Denmark and Sweden. Cloudy but mainly dry across Norway with rain expected across France. Fair and dry weather can be expected from eastern France into eastern parts of Belgium, Holland and across all of Germany and Poland. High pressure will keep is it settled with plenty of sunshine to come across Italy, Greece and most of Turkey. Fine across the Balkans with sunny spells for the former Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungry, Austria and the Czech Republic. Heavy rain and heavy showers are expected across Spain but dry across Portugal. Showers are forecast across the Balearics with southerly gales from Sardinia into the south of France. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

GLORIOUS! A BURST OF SUMMER ON ITS WAY BRITAIN is warming up to bask in a glorious Indian summer next week. A sizzling blast of hot air is due to flood in from the Continent on Monday sending temperatures above 70F (21C). Forecasters said the entire country can look forward to “unseasonably warm†weather, with the South in for an almost summerlike burst of glory. A final hurrah of summer will be welcomed by many after a week of torrential rain, floods and fierce winds. In the South and along the west coast, gusts of up to 70mph whipped up the sea while torrential downpours saw up to an inch of rain fall in a matter of hours. A high pressure and a blast of hot air from Spain is likely to trigger a dramatic turnaround next week with blue skies and sunshine expected for much of the UK. Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said temperatures in the South could soar into the low 70s. http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/352747/Glorious-A-burst-of-summer-on-its-way

These are a week or more away but perhaps the first low level snow of the new season for some Day time HIGHS! The further south it moves it turns to sleet Into the weekend

In 2010 the handles broke on 2 so I'm taking no chances everywhere ran out of them in 2010

It would turn colder for sure but the chances of snow at low levels remain slim for now the Scottish mountains would do well! November onwards is usually when we begin to see snow at low levels in England, it could happen in October don't get me wrong its just a case of if it turned cold enough

I am well prepare for a snowy winter this year unlike the end of 2010 when I like many others got caught out! I have extra bags of Grit this year so I don't run out 3 snow shovels And I also have a leaf blower which when put into the blowing mode will make a very handy snow clearance machine and save on the back breaking job of using the snow shovel if it gets deep

Snow and cold fans click this link -

Winter to be colder than normal as chances of white Christmas increase Britain will shiver through winter with snow, bone-chilling -18C (0F) temperatures and transport disruption, forecasters have warned. But look on the bright side – the predicted freeze means there’s a good chance of a traditional white Christmas, as high pressure blocks mild Atlantic air. ‘We’re forecasting a colder than average period from mid-November to late January, with significant snow at times, particularly in the north and east, but with London also seeing snow,’ said British Weather Services’ senior meteorologist Jim Dale. ‘Minimum temperatures are expected to fall to about -10C in southern England and -18C in parts of Scotland. ‘Road users will need to be aware of snow hazards.’ There’s one last blast warm weather in store before the chill. A 21C (70F) Indian summer is predicted to start on Monday as Hurricane Rafael runs out of puff in the Atlantic and shunts warm air across Britain. But after that it’s time to wrap up and stay wrapped. ‘Cold is the main feature of this winter,’ said forecaster WeatherWeb. http://www.metro.co....e#ixzz29ZbpkGWE Its only a matter of time now until we get a front page headline from the Daily Express saying -18c winter on the way or something like that

Thanks for that I knew it was drier than normal up there at some point during winter

So Scotland is looking like having another dry start to winter just like last winter, looking at those charts the south could be in for a treat snow wise during December if the temperature can stay low enough

Although that models maybe showing something colder as October ends the Met Office are still going for temperatures around average for the time of year the only word of wintery showers is for upland parts of Scotland. This covers the period from Thursday 1st November 2012 to Thursday 15th November 2012

Very unsettled west Better east Issued: 0530hrs Wednesday 17th October 2012 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Rain and wind in the west, drier to the east Wednesday Cloud and rain affecting the north and west of Spain and Portugal through Wednesday. More cloud and rain across northern and western parts of France. Cloud and rain for the Low Countries and northern Germany with some cloud and drizzle in Poland. Austria, Switzerland and Hungary should be drier with broken cloud. High pressure through Italy brings fair weather here and some good spells of sunshine. More sunshine to come through Greece and Turkey. The sun extends north through Bulgaria and Romania too. Low pressure gives some cloud and drizzle to Denmark. Dry weather to come in the Baltic States, although rain reaching Finland. Northern Norway and Sweden will have cloud and some outbreaks of rain, whilst the south should be dry. Thursday Showers affecting northern and western parts of Spain as well as Portugal. Drier to the east and south bringing some sunny spells. A windy day over central and southern France bringing sunny spells here. Italy and Greece will have further spells of sunshine and it should be dry. More dry weather in Turkey. Northern and western France will be cloudy with some outbreaks of rain. More cloud and rain over the Low Countries and northern Germany. Poland and southern Germany will be dry with sunny spells and will be mild. Further mild conditions through Switzerland and Austria as well as Hungary. Cloud and some rain over Denmark and the Baltic States. More cloud and rain over Finland. Sweden will be drier with sunny spells with similar weather over the south of Norway, although cloud and outbreaks of rain in central and northern Norway. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

Changeable Becoming Warmer http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20121017

Plenty of high pressure there across Europe and the UK