Summer Sun

Like you say there is 12 day's left yet so it's quite difficult to predict what will happen, some models are hinting at a NW / SE split so if that does occur then Glastonbury may avoid some rain but this time next week things will become clearer.......................Hopefully

PWS expect a mixed bag for this year,

PWS seem to be fairly cautious with their forecast,

loli like many on here appreciate what GP does i have heard about how he called last years winter correct so unless GP Say's summer 2011 is a write off i still maintain hope.

All i would add to that is the past 2 years have followed good / warm June's this year June has been cool / wet, apart from 3 day's. Does anyone know if GP is on holiday as he's not been on the forums since June 08th at 08:19, i hope what's happened so far this summer hasn't made him leave the forum. :unsure:

Valid from 11/06 to 08/07 2011 Little sign of summer UK prospects for the period 11/06/2011 - 15/07/2011 Where has summer gone? There seems little material evidence in the patterns under consideration for anything remotely resembling summer materialising in the immediate future. Low pressure and the Atlantic will be controlling the pattern well into the medium term, showers or longer spells of rain will feature in the forecast for all areas, very welcome for sure for those desperate for rainfall, not so if you're looking for sunshine and warm weather. It'll often be quite windy at times, this coupled with cloud and rain isn't going to be making feel very summery at all for most parts, so distinctly on the cool side for the bulk of the UK. Any drier interludes are likely to be transitory, any areas of higher pressure being weak seen mainly a ridges of high pressure between quite active Atlantic low pressure systems pushing through all areas. There are indications that as we approach the turn of the month the pattern weakens and the flow 'stalling', low pressure looking like becoming slow moving or stationary close to or over the UK, so even into the end of June it looks unsettled for all areas. Into the beginning of July, high pressure looks likely to be building, hoorah! Unfortunately I here you say, it'll probably too far to the west of the UK to have any prospect of introducing summer, it will be drier and it' will be sunnier, so it'll be feeling warmer but with the flow still from off the North Atlantic, don't anticipate great heat. Through the early part of July the flow remains mainly from the west or northwest, this mainly light for the most part, there is however some strong evidence that during mid-July the Atlantic activity 'peps' up somewhat, with all areas seeing further outbreaks of more organised rain and breezy conditions. Summer 2011 perhaps not one shaping up to be one which many of us would have wished for and not what some had earlier lead us to expect? *11/06/2011 - 20/6/2011* Low pressure is expected to bring all areas are rather unsettled and wet spell of weather, strong winds coupled with low cloud and outbreaks of rain will make for a rather cool and un-summery mixture for much of the UK, this should quickly clear way to brighter weather and a transient rise in pressure should see drier conditions moving through all areas. Further spells of wind and rain will never to be far away and as one system clears away to the east the next Atlantic system will be approaching western Britain increasing cloud eroding any sunnier skies from the west. The flow should remain from the west so showers concentrated through western and north-western Britain, eastern and southern areas seeing more scattered showers and drier and brighter spells. *21/06/11 - 26/06/11* If anything through the latter stages of the month there seems very little prospect of any summer-like weather establishing as the flow seems a little more concentrated from a westerly point. Low pressure continues to rule the pattern with further bands of rain or showers perhaps merging into lengthier spells of rather unsettled conditions. It's still cool for the time of year and it'll often be breezy at times particularly in the west and northwest, the driest and sunniest of conditions to be expected across the south and southeast, however this too will become eroded by showers later as low pressure slips into the UK. *26/06/11 - 30/06/2011* Low pressure continues to feature strongly in the pattern; that said as this system approaches the UK is looks likely that the pattern begins to weaken and the flow 'stall', showers will continue to affect all areas as low pressure becomes a slow moving but 'filling' feature atop of the UK. There will be drier and sunnier spells between the showers, these becoming less organised as time goes by and lengthier sunnier breaks develop. Still generally on the cool side, particularly where showers are concentrated, the warmth of the mid-summer sunshine evident in drier and brighter interludes. *01/07/2011 - 06/07/2011* Low pressure should be slipping slowly away to the east or southeast as a 'filling' feature, showers becoming less frequent and well scattered, western and north-western areas seeing the benefits of rising pressure to the west, a large anticyclone developing in mid-North Atlantic. Lengthening spells of sunshine should make it feel pleasant enough despite a breeze form the northwest or north. High pressure should be ridging into the west of the UK, so at last there's some prospect of drier and sunnier weather, feeling warmer everywhere as winds will be lighter and variable, perhaps a north-westerly drift across the far north where some broken cloud and scattered rain showers can be expected from time to time. *07/07/2011 - 15/07/2011* High pressure so tantalisingly close but seemingly so far away, looks set to be pulling back into mid-Atlantic, with it too goes the settled weather and allows a more north-westerly feed of Atlantic air to establish through all areas, showers returning to many exposed western districts, broken cloud and a scattering of showers for central and southern England. As we approach the end of the forecast period, the westerly pattern appears to once again turn up a notch, low pressure which may be quite active passing close to the northwest, rain and a stiff breeze becoming a feature across north-western areas, this likely to spread east and south later.

This topic is in no way a dig at Netweather, this is a General question after many different opinion's on the forums over the past week, a simple question is Long Range Forecasting (LFR) a thing of the past?

What did July and August bring that year? after a poor June.

Well we can safely safe this year it won't get better it will just stay as it is for a while yet.

I have to say that parts of the North east have been quite dry this year despite all the rain around this week Darlington some how managed to avoid the worst of it, our lawn isn't green anymore it's brown.

Unsettled, rain & showers Odd better day Issued: 0900hrs Saturday 11th June 2011 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Rain and showers throughout, just an odd better day An unsettled week ahead with the jet stream close by and low pressure on the scene. This brings sunshine, showers or longer spells of rain to all parts. There will be an odd couple of fair days, Tuesday and probably next Sunday most notably.

UK Outlook for Sunday 26 Jun 2011 to Sunday 10 Jul 2011: Daytime temperatures are expected to be below average in the north and west of the UK during the period, but night temperatures will be around average. Cloud cover is likely to be extensive here with lower than average amounts of sunshine, and average levels of rainfall. In southern and southeastern areas, temperatures should generally be close to average, with sunshine amounts normal for the time of year. Rainfall will probably be less than average in these areas. Updated: 1145 on Sat 11 Jun 2011 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Jun 2011 to Saturday 25 Jun 2011: Rain or showers in most parts on Thursday and Friday this week. Some of the rain or showers may be heavy, with a chance of hail and thunder, with the greatest risk in the west. Some sunny periods between showery outbreaks. Moderate winds in most areas but strong, possibly gale force, in the west. Temperatures on the cool side, but nearer normal in the east. Next weekend and the start of the following week will see a few periods of drier and brighter weather, most likely in the south later, but often unsettled with further showers or rain. Continuing risk of strong winds in the west, and temperatures remaining cool. Staying unsettled for the rest of the period, possibly drier and slightly warmer in the southeast. Updated: 1143 on Sat 11 Jun 2011 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Central thunderstorms Sunny Mediterranean Issued: 0530hrs Saturday 11th June 2011 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Thundery through central areas, but fair to the south Saturday Lots of showers to come across a chilly England and occasional showers too across into Belgium, Holland into Denmark. Eastern parts of France will continue to see showers with the west and the south sunny and dry. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are forecast across Italy into the Alps and the far south of Germany. Much of Spain and Portugal looks sunny, dry and warm with lots of sunshine into the Balearic's across into Corsica. Southern parts of Germany will catch some heavy showers with the north fair and dry. Rain across eastern Poland otherwise a dry day across Poland. Some rain across northern parts of Norway and Sweden into Belarus and Romania with heavy, thundery showers across the Ukraine and southern Russia. Hot and sunny across Finland today with showers into the Baltic States. Sunshine and showers to come across Turkey today but dry and sunny across Greece and much of the former Yugoslavia. Sunday A few showers may break out across central parts of Spain today but for most it should be fine and sunny. There will be some cloud and rain over the far northwest of Spain, with Portugal being dry. Most of the Mediterranean stays fine with plenty of sunshine from west to east. However, some cloud and showers could affect northern Turkey, with heavy showers to the south. Cloud and rain affects northwest France but the rest of the country should be dry. The Low Counties, Switzerland, Germany and Austria are all going to be dry with more sunshine to come here, and this fine weather will be extending into Denmark and Poland. To the north there will be rain and string winds through the UK and Ireland with some cloud and rain affecting southwest Norway. The rest of southern Scandinavia is rather cloudy with some spots of rain, and these extending into the Baltic States too. Some cloud and showery rain across Finland.

The up and coming week will again will again be dominated by low pressure the south and south east / East Anglia look like they'll hold onto high pressure for most of the week. Small hints of something a little warmer and settled towards next weekend from the south? or yet more LP heading our way?

Well just to prove how cold it is a present there was snow at the top of the Snowdon mountain railway today, summer remains on hold for now, GFS FI shows LP been pushed away on the 21st with HP taking over from the 22nd, but as it's GFS and FI i wouldn't get your hopes up

Maybe hope at the end of June? All in FI i know but keep faith the end of June may turn out to be nice who knows.

Following on from Netweather's summer forecast predicition, the bbc's Paul Hudson has today released his blog, June's weather looks set to deteriorate further as low pressure intensifies its grip across the UK. The timing couldn't be more awkward for the Environment Agency who this morning issued a drought order for parts of Eastern England. Only hours later, the Met Office issued yellow warnings in parts of the country, including drought-order hit Lincolnshire, for prolonged thundery downpours that could produce 25-45mm in places, with the associated risk of localised flooding. Just as the atmosphere was 'blocked' through March and April, with persistent areas of high pressure that led to the dry conditions, the atmosphere looks set to stay stuck in a rut of persistent areas of low pressure, possibly for much of the rest of June. On Sunday a deep area of low pressure will bring rain sweeping across the UK, including drought-hit Eastern England. A respite will follow into next week with a little ridge of high pressure, before another area of low pressure swings back in from the west bringing more rain to many areas later in the week. It also highlights once more the dangers of long range forecasting. These headlines came from a detailed forecast from private weather company Netweather. They said only last month that 'Within the summer, we expect the core of the hot and settled weather to occur during June and July, particularly June which we think will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge across much of western Europe and the UK. 'Rarely has a long range forecast gone so spectacularly wrong, so quickly. Netweather will be hoping that July and August shows a rapid and sharp improvement - or more likely that their 'shades of 1976' forecast is quietly forgotten. Is Mr Hudson having a dig at Netweather? http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2011/06/flaming-june-could-end-up-a-wa.shtml

Hi, from here - http://www.wetterzen...n/fsecmeur.html - plenty of dire outputs at present And the deepest into FI Loads of heat all around us but the low pressure is been very stubborn and just won't leave at present.

Fine and dry, eastern Europe, Scandinavia Today A day of sunshine and showers across England heavy rain in the south west. Lots of showers, some heavy and thundery are forecast across France, Germany and across the Alps into northern parts of Italy. Mainly dry across eastern Germany and across Belgium, Holland and Denmark with sunny spells. A band of rain will lie from Norway into Sweden into Poland and Romania with frequent, heavy showers and thunderstorms across Belarus, Russia and the Ukraine. A hot, sunny day to come across Finland and the Baltic States. Very warm across the former Yugoslavia and Bulgaria with just a few showers. Sunny and warm into Greece. A few sharp thundery showers develop across Turkey with sunny spells. Dry and sunny in the Mediterranean across southern Italy into Corsica, Sardinia and the Balearics while a few showers affect northern parts of Spain. Saturday Lots of showers to come across a chilly England and occasional showers too across into Belgium, Holland into Denmark. Eastern parts of France will continue to see showers with the west and the south sunny and dry. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are forecast across Italy into the Alps and the far south of Germany. Much of Spain and Portugal looks sunny, dry and warm with lots of sunshine into the Balearics across into Corsica. Southern parts of Germany will catch some heavy showers with the north fair and dry. Rain across eastern Poland otherwise a dry day across Poland. Some rain across northern parts of Norway and Sweden into Belarus and Romania with heavy, thundery showers across the Ukraine and southern Russia. Hot and sunny across Finland today with showers into the Baltic States. Sunshine and showers to come across Turkey today but dry and sunny across Greece and much of the former Yugoslavia. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20110610

Well that wasn't hard was it, why couldn't you have done that ages ago when asked? look fairly accurate to me.

Would be hard if they banned your IP address then you couldn't, the only way you can gain a little respect on here is stop arguing go away do your lrf and come back and post it, until then i can see these arguments continuing which don't look good for any guests who browse these forums that's no way of attracting members is it.

Yes well said, let's just ignore him and let him annoy people elsewhere the more we respond to him the more he replies, just ignore him and he'll give up in the end.

Should be a top up for the needed areas.

Stick it in the Weather Discussion and Chat Forum, i can't wait to see this from a "trained" forcaster