Norfolk Sheep
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UKASF update
Central, Southern and South-East England
Synopsis:
A complex synoptic pattern is forecast during Tuesday as frontal systems associated with a convective area of low pressure drift northwards out of France and affect many Central, Southern and South-eastern areas of England during the day. Increasingly cyclonic conditions are expected further north and west with some scattered showers and perhaps longer spells??? of more frontal rain across Ireland later, despite some reasonable drier and brighter conditions at times.
Discussion:
A highly complex mixture of both dynamic and convective precipitation is expected to push northwards out of France this evening in association with the surface low pressure which is forecast to drift northwards, as highlighted above, overnight and through Tuesday. The primary threat of convective activity may well occur during the overnight period tonight and through into the early hours of Tuesday morning.
The threat of thunderstorms exists in association with some extreme instability over in Northern France which is associated with the surface low pressure. Frontal zones are likely to act as primary sources of more dynamic and persistent precipitation, but the convective nature of the low pressure is likely to bring a threat of some heavy and thundery showers northwards out of France, across the English Channel and into southern areas of England overnight. DLS (0-6KM) and helicity across Northern France is of significant levels, with a significant threat of well organised multicellular thunderstorms and perhaps even an MCS. These well developed environmental conditions for organised thunderstorm activity is likely to be a primary reason why heavy and thundery showers are likely to traverse the English Channel and affect parts of the south overnight.
It is prudent to add that this kind of synoptic setup is notorious fickle and extremely difficult to forecast. As if often the case the lack of surface heating over the English Channel usually signals some weakening or total dissipation of thunderstorm activity. However, with a marked, albeit small, trough associated with the surface low pressure leading to a region of DPVA there is once again further evidence to support some well organised thunderstorms moving across the English Channel and affecting southern areas overnight.
A general region of heavy rain, showers and thunderstorms early on Tuesday is likely across the region highlighted. As the day progresses the convective risk is likely to reduce and any heavy precipitation is forecast to gradually clear away out into the North Sea. At the moment the primary risk of severe weather is from frequent lightning activity and torrential downpours leading to localised flooding. The severe thunderstorm threat, with a risk of large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes, is forecast to remain over in the near continent with the majority of the forecast models keeping the severe DLS and helicity values again over in France.
Depending on how the remainder of the evening develops, it may well be prudent to upgrade theSLIGHT risk to a MODERATE risk, but for the time being given the highly complex nature of the synoptic setup a SLIGHT risk will suffice
More promising IMO!
Satellite imagery continues to show the LP spawning more thunderstorm cells too
Am organising a work party to start filling in the Channel. If you're interested please report to a convenient location on the south coast. You will need to provide your own shovel.....
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Just to be anywhere in the risk zone would suit me lol We have had a load of storms this year but don't think I would ever get sick of them even if I had one every day of the year lol To be honest there's not a massive distance between the north and south of the region (in terms of miles) is there? So, I would be surprised if there were intense storms in the south of the region, if they didn't make their way north to you! lol
Trust me, it's 50 miles to Ipswich from here but that's far enough to screw it up
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I am LOVING the write up from the MetO for the East of England tonight wish I was there:
Tonight:
Becoming increasingly cloudy with rain moving north, becoming heavy at times with an increasing risk of intense thunderstorms and local downpours, especially in the south. Minimum temperature 14 °C.
Ooh, what a lovely idea
Unfortunately I'm in the north of the region but I would doubt if that actually came off, MetO are notoriously bad at forecasting for the East of England! -
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ looks like its going south out from norwich heavy rain now in ipswich
Good, it can hold off til 6pm as far as I'm concerned
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Looks like it's going to slip past to the south again - just as well I'e got 5 acres to top this afternoon!
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Enoying this chase very much, different scenery, different weather but still impressive
FWIW I was driving home the other day past local stubble fields and up popped a little wully wully which breezed through and rocked the car as it headed across the road
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Wasted my time cleaning out some drains and gutters, had about 15 mins of drizzle and the sun's out now. The rain was always getting lighter as it passed to the south.
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I've been watching the edge slipping by since about midday, it doesn't seem to want to make much progress east at the moment. The skies look very disturbed, I've seen some serious embedded activity from similar in previous years.
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Trust the East to get there storms errrr,Maybe the site should be renamed Netweather East or East weather lol know point us westerners being here
The proper east has had hardly anything in the way of storms this year
Perhaps I should say the far east.... -
Positively autumnal here today with a blustery SWly wind. Not much chance of adding to my grand total of 4 storms since last
summer then....
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Sun's out here now, but that massive area of rain stretches from Norwich to the coast, I still can't see the top of it!
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I live a few miles away and didn't get the hail but knew whoever was getting it must be getting a battering as the thunder was near constant for about 10 mins
Blimey, I've got a mate lives there, must find out what happened
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well that was enjoyable
An hour's worth of heavy rain with reasonable thunder and lightning every 5 minutes or so, narrowly beating the 15 minutes worth on June 28th Anyone east of here should be getting some significant rainfall shortly
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Holy Smoke! Just thought I'd clear the driveway drain as the rain has eased off when my eyeballs were fried and there was an almighty crack of thunder, real chest vibrating stuff
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EEK! THE RAIN!!!
Looks like the OH has a gutter or two to clear this w/e
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ooh proper thunder
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First rumble of thunder!!!!!
Edited: And the wind has picked up.
Edited again: The radio has also become lively - and another rumble.
Please let this be the start of it :excl:
same here
It's suddenly got a wiggle on and heading straight here, thought it was going more NE but hey ho -
Quick dark outside and blimmin strong gusts of wind. But check the radar and there's nothing
Ooh, light drizzle *faints*
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I've been potting up in the shed and my radio was going insane, must be some serious lightning around somewhere! Rather grey here now, possibly the chance of some spots or rain soon
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Happy enough with that versus my guess earlier!!!!
You're expecting me to DRIVE to find a storm????
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TCUs whizzing up here...and then collapsing
Would think any East Anglian action will be well to the west of Norwich, we may get an odd shower late on (see that reverse psychology?
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The OH said he just drove through the edge of some very heavy rain near Cambridge this evening, showers still moving up towards the Wash but despite the lovely mackerel sky this morning nowt here as usual.
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I believe it was me who took that very photo (not sure if that's why I would appreciate it, lol
) - sadly I was in London (as per the pic) all day and the most I got was watching it build and build and build and build, to mammoth proportions These were the pics I took on that great t'storm day (15th June 2009)
I remember the 15th June very well, it was a pretty good day weather wise
I headed out towards Swaffham and managed to get a few pics, then headed towards Watton and got mired by the whole system Constant thunder and lightning for hours, torrential rain (I had to unblock the drains at the front because the barns were getting flooded - rather a futile effort LOL) I sat outside under a big garden parasol and shot loads of footage but sadly the camcorder is defunct )Some pics from near Holme Hale (I was sooooo hoping one of the wind turbines would get struck
)This was followed by the 17th July, which was pretty hairy. I wandered out into the front paddocks to take some pics and YE GODS!!! My eyeballs were fried and my ears fell off........I scarpered back indoors pretty quickly
Wonder if I'll see anything like this again?
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One moderately heavy shower around lunchtime in Norwich, the pewter grey skies seem to be brightening up a bit with a bit of pale grey here and there....
Perhaps I should say the far east....
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22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
ooh, be positive - you never know we might get lucky this time (although the nasty BBC forecast only had light blue over Norwich, it was better than lunchtime when there was a distinct lack of any rain at all!)