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Staffordshire

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    Midlands Regional Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    What an exceptional spell of weather this is proving to be, the only downside is that all the grass around here which is exposed to the sun for a few hours is dry to the brown with a straw-like appearance.

    Long may it continue I say.

    • Like 2

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    horrible morning, wouldn't be surprised to get drizzle/haar, wonder how long it will take to lift

    The way you go on about this 'sea mist' really never fails to amaze me, we had a bit of cloud this morning which is the first we have seen in a long while, just enjoy the weather!

    Short range model discussion - into 2018

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, knocker said:

    As a general comment western regions have fared better for sunshine with  this easterly drift being quite persistent and they are leeward of the high ground. Why specifically the Liverpool/Manchester area I don't know but I would suspect a topographical angle plus the usual urban affect but I'm sure there are others more familiar with the weather of the area who could be more helpful. Are you around John?

    Thanks knocker!

    Short range model discussion - into 2018

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, knocker said:

    I'm sure everyone is familiar with how the NH pattern is evolving so just a quick reminder with last evening's EPS short range NH profile. The essential details are the upstream events involving the intense ridge/trough combo and the erosion of the Azores/Euro block that has been a feature for so long. Thus a more westerly influences should enter the scene by the end of the short range.

    ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_8.thumb.png.b052d01ca5d12e495ecfd720d6314a18.png

    But back to the here and now.

    Quite a cloudy and humid start in the south and with a front draped across the Midlands some showers still around. Further north quite a clear night but the usual ingress of low cloud along eastern coastal regions and a fair way inland. This will pull back to the coast during the day and the cloud will thin in the south and the showers become very infrequent resulting in a warm day generally. But this could trigger some hefty showers/storms in N. Ireland and Scotland that are in a different circulation.

    PPVA89.thumb.gif.da8bdf631942212ab2f88e732d5b5fdd.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.4297557db1d6aeaf07c72a51f01618ef.gifmax.thumb.png.3fbf5ba81af4104a26ea024d42924b64.png

    1771652578_h09.thumb.png.5b57eb900751333ebeb3008759f702f9.png774334094_h15.thumb.png.b8d55dfe142f2d2f7e8ebb81f41aac40.png

    104171934_r10.thumb.png.b1cbaae5d7733b578cb5ad9caa454fe0.png47285848_r15.thumb.png.bba6b8e568e525ab128dea48200cb51f.png830995604_r18.thumb.png.9b3c47fa4e56479a3bc9bc1684b148bf.png

    A clear night for most apart from the usual ingress of cloud in eastern regions leading to a warm day for just about everyone with the usual caveats vis the east and other coastal regions may also be a bit cooler if sea breezes kick in. The major exception here will be N. Ireland and western Scotland where there could well be some torrential downpours in the slow moving convection and later in the day some showers could also creep into the south of England.

    PPVG89.thumb.gif.1a64b5bae1b1d145ed390fd8ca4ef1f8.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.2a91b4032f54b32e35d2677ff98cdc37.gif810470940_max2.thumb.png.ae74569176200a98ad572fedbf51a585.png

    696055255_rs12.thumb.png.378c46740c1c4770631fa4b1c73eeed5.png1351656684_rs15.thumb.png.9e925bb3a85ee34434aabc2248d67ee6.png1947489297_rs18.thumb.png.cc9b1bf322b715ed8ddfbe3412399b62.png

    By Sunday the overview still has the Iberian upper low as the main influence over the UK but to the west the trough and energy exiting the eastern seaboard is already exerting some pressure on the Azores ridge. But for the time being another very warm and humid day for the UK, usual caveat, and heavy showers/storms could crop up almost anywhere.

    gfs_z500a_natl_12.thumb.png.811ea487882b079f1e01a2c331ebc97f.pnggfs_uv250_natl_12.thumb.png.6a6c528ca9f38de7341d6afea5fb6615.png

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_12.thumb.png.cb03733686f7bcb2ce16b291c18a4c9e.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.43b69cd008138c5bcb66aa4d4fe1a55b.png

    A not dissimilar day on Monday but just to emphasis once again cooler near the North Sea coasts and to note some quite nast weather over N. France and in the Channel

    PPVM89.thumb.gif.bf3526f84e63d370ba9329e005ce09c9.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.823fe2a37554d1e69393ee22d8885f97.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.5efc27a75d890eda7cf0bbe0921a4e18.png

    By Tuesday some indication of the changes that are afoot as the pressure on the ridge has re orientated it across the UK and thus a much less humid day and temps slipping down to around average in many areas with the west and north west being warmer but still the chance of showers in these regions.

    gfs_z500a_natl_20.thumb.png.fa4ba3bd49f0ab62dbc74b609d6a489a.pnggfs_uv250_natl_20.thumb.png.a87972ff1c5ab26a007099c57ff61604.png

    PPVO89.thumb.gif.9f6574c2778a3afac617e47b8f07b1ff.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.542ca903e9a000441b1a0a8b0195f8cb.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.b3e257693be46bcd75bfd3bd3f6f1b89.png

     

    Excellent post as per Knocker.

    A question I have that I was hoping you could maybe answer for me is... there seems to be a hot-spot around Liverpool-Manchester on those maps, i'm sure this isn't usually the case in the UK... why does it seem to be over the coming days? Many thanks!!

    • Thanks 1

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    15 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    sea mist cleared around 3pm, but will be back tomorrow

    Mark, anyone would think we've had the most miserable month of weather in years?

    It has been the warmest may on record and the sunniest since 1929, cheer up!

    Lovely clear blue skies this morning! 

    • Like 1

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    I can see the storm heading for Cannock, out of my window. It looks mean. The rumbling is constant, it's going to be a miss for us but a great storm for anyone in its path. The rumbling isn't stopping, there is no gap.

    thus is going to be a memorable one for those in line. Can't remember hearing so much unbroken grumbling. Not unless the dingles lose and WM is on anyway. 

    Yes this just scraped me also... very disappointing. Cannock always seems to do so so much better than Lichfield for storms for some strange reason, oh wel. I am waiting to shoot out in my car if we look like getting another near miss.

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