Robbie Garrett
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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett
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Aircraft would use a lot of fuel heading into the Jetstream+storm I'd expect....
Talking of fuel today's storm is super fueled, I can only say that everywhere is at risk of affects from this big storm in one way or another, and affecting on Tue too.
Seems to have calmed down a tad here in the last hour. Seems as if the peak of the gusts for my area with top out around midnight tonight and the early hours.
925mb in Stornoway.
Katrina - 902mb.
Intriguing fact. Here's a synop from Katrina.
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It's definitely stormy out there, wondering how bad it will get tonight. It's about gusting 40knots at the moment.
Anyone know if the Thames Barrier is up as water looked really high earlier.
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Fork lightning here and heavy rain, some booming thunder. Wind picking up!! Very Summer esque...
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Massive booming thunder. What is this?
Lightning flash as I type.-
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Just had a massive flash of IC lightning in London, anyone else see this or has something just detonated?
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In terms of a longer-term output, I can see things calming down for Christmas and something abit more warmer than what we have at the moment. A firm Scandinavian ridge till the New Year I believe is the more expected output.
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Just had Thunder here.
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Just had IC lightning and thunder here in SE17
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Some CB's with heavy showers in South London right now. Quite dark to the west, just had one cell with heavy rain.
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Compared to the Storm on October 27th 2002, this is nothing. Just been trawling through the past metars. Maximum gust today was Gust 51knots, in 2002 it was Gust 64knots. But if you look it was very consistently windy on October 27th 2002.
Today's storm
EGLL 280950Z 25018KT 9999 VCSH SCT024 SCT035 12/08 Q0992EGLL 280920Z 25022KT 9999 FEW024 SCT039 BKN046 13/07 Q0991 NOSIGEGLL 280850Z 26024KT 9999 FEW024 12/07 Q0990EGLL 280820Z 26024KT 9999 FEW024 SCT030 12/08 Q0989EGLL 280750Z 27026G36KT 9999 7000NW VCSH SCT018 BKN025 12/09 Q0988EGLL 280720Z 26029G39KT 9000 -SHRA SCT018 BKN025 13/10 Q0985 RESHRA TEMPO SHRAEGLL 280650Z 27034G45KT 9999 BKN019 13/09 Q0983 BECMG 27024G35KTEGLL 280620Z 25041G51KT 9999 SCT016 BKN020 14/11 Q0979EGLL 280550Z 21023G36KT 9999 BKN020 16/13 Q0978EGLL 280520Z 21021G33KT 9999 FEW014 SCT022 16/14 Q0979 TEMPO RA BKN012EGLL 280450Z 22020G32KT 9999 SCT015 SCT020 16/14 Q0980 TEMPO 23024G42KT RA BKN012
EGLL 280420Z 22021G32KT 9000 -RA FEW016 BKN019 16/14 Q0981 TEMPO 23025G42KTEGLL 280350Z 21018G29KT 9999 -RA SCT018 SCT023 16/14 Q0982 RERA TEMPO BKN008EGLL 280320Z 20018KT 9999 RA SCT010 BKN017 16/15 Q0982 TEMPO BKN008October 2002's storm
EGLL 270320Z 23023G35KT 9999 BKN025 16/11 Q0996 NOSIGEGLL 270350Z 22022G32KT 9999 SCT025 15/11 Q0995 NOSIGEGLL 270420Z 23029G42KT 9999 FEW025 15/08 Q0995 NOSIGEGLL 270450Z 23024KT 9999 SCT027 15/08 Q0994 NOSIGEGLL 270520Z 22030G46KT 9999 FEW025 14/08 Q0993 NOSIGEGLL 270550Z 23027G37KT 9999 -SHRA SCT022 14/09 Q0993 NOSIGEGLL 270620Z 23031G42KT 9999 FEW022 SCT050 14/07 Q0992 NOSIGEGLL 270650Z 24030G54KT 9999 FEW022 SCT040 14/06 Q0994 NOSIGEGLL 270720Z 24032G50KT 9999 FEW022 SCT040 13/05 Q0994 NOSIGEGLL 270750Z 24035G51KT 9999 -SHRA FEW022 BKN038 13/05 Q0994 NOSIGEGLL 270820Z 25033G53KT 9999 -SHRA FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0995 NOSIGEGLL 270850Z 25037G57KT 9999 FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0996 NOSIGEGLL 270920Z 25043G64KT 9999 FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0996 NOSIGEGLL 270950Z 25032G46KT 9999 SCT022 BKN038 13/05 Q0997 NOSIGEGLL 271020Z 26039G56KT 9999 -SHRA SCT025 BKN038 13/03 Q0997 NOSIGEGLL 271050Z 25038G55KT 9999 SCT026 BKN038 13/04 Q0998 NOSIGEGLL 271120Z 26034G47KT 9999 SCT028 SCT040 13/04 Q0999 NOSIGEGLL 271150Z 26034G50KT 9999 SCT030 SCT043 13/03 Q1000 NOSIGEGLL 271250Z 26034G48KT 9999 FEW035 SCT043 14/03 Q1002 NOSIGEGLL 271320Z 27027G40KT 9999 SCT038 SCT045 13/03 Q1004 NOSIGEGLL 271350Z 27032G48KT 240V300 9999 SCT038 SCT045 14/03 Q1005 NOSIGEGLL 271420Z 27031G45KT 9999 BKN042 13/02 Q1006 NOSIGEGLL 271450Z 27032G46KT 250V310 9999 BKN042 13/02 Q1008 NOSIGEGLL 271520Z 27025G38KT 9999 BKN042 13/02 Q1010 NOSIGEGLL 271550Z 27025G37KT 9999 FEW036 12/03 Q1011 NOSIGEGLL 271620Z 28023G34KT 9999 FEW035 11/04 Q1013 NOSIGEGLL 271650Z 27023G37KT 250V310 9999 FEW035 11/03 Q1014 NOSIGEGLL 271720Z 28024G36KT 9999 FEW032 11/03 Q1015 NOSIG
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Top 5 gusts at 09:00 GMT: Wattisham, Suffolk, 76mph; Walton-on-Naze, Essex, 63mph; Manston, Kent, 57mph, Langdon Bay, Kent, 56mph; Needles Old Battery, Isle of Wight, 55mph.
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Regardless of what's happening and what everyone's thoughts are. This so called super storm has claimed its first life as the search in Newhaven is too dangerous to continue and has been called off.
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Not sure what most people use, but the MetOffice Aviation Prog gives the following. This was just updated at 2100 - won't be surprised to see Gust 70knots in places inland like Biggin Hill Airport/Bristol Airport.
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At Heathrow Operators have been asked to cancel 20% of flights 0600-1100, 10% 1100-1600 and 5% 1600- midnight. Night jet restrictions have been lifted tonight and tomorrow night.Expecting Gusts to 60mph in the morning. Rates down to 24 per hour from 45 per hour landing.
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Very Similar weather conditions in London to October 27th 2002 tomorrow morning.
Gatwick going for Gust 63 knots and Heathrow for G60 - that's remarkable as that doesn't happen regularly or in a very long time.
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Hi, lurker here (only seem come out when it's exciting weather!)
Thanks for all the info - loving reading it! I'm just outside Southend on Sea, so am expecting no trains on Monday to work at least!
Got a query though - on the chart Gael_Force posted showing wind speeds at 925hPa, if the pressure at sea level gets down to say 970 as predicted, then what height above sea level are those speeds? I'm guessing only a few hundred metres?
Cheers,
Steve
Steve,
1mb per 30ft so it's about 1350ft at Standard Atmosphere (ISA+15*C at Surface) - I think the Shard is going to have it's first real test Monday.
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Rainfall from GFS high res, in HD.
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100mph+ SUSTAINED winds Robbie?? Jeez that is not something even I would want!!
I am only going by what the storm motion is giving on the high res GFS. I believe this is recorded at a height of 10m, let's say that the Storm Motion is maximum winds (i.e gusts) then the maximum gust is 150KM/h + in this case the black area.
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One thing to be concerned about is that at current track and position expected, we are likely to see the strongest winds +100mph or so gusts through the exposed Channel. With 70-80mph through the majority of London and the Home counties. ANY track further NORTH is really not something you should like to consider as then the most populated area in Europe will be prone to something not experienced in 26 years +
The main flank of winds are going for 93mph sustained to 100mph+ So anyone hoping the track goes further North, please don't
MetOffice warning system is currently at the following status. Some branches or trees brought down. Localised travel disruption. Localised problems for high-sided vehicles on prone routes. Drive with care, especially on exposed routes. BE AWARE of possible debris being blown around.
It will only upgrade to RED on the following. Widespread structural damage, e.g. roofs blown off, mobile homes overturned, power lines brought down. Risk to personal safety from flying debris. Potentially widespread and/or prolonged interruptions to power. Expect widespread transport disruption due to e.g. roads blocked by fallen trees.
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The expected wind strengths with this storm are similar to those of the Burns Day Storm 1990.
Says the MetOffice
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I remember it so well, and it peaked in London at 49.48mph gusting 73.64mph - extremely impressive for London. It took down my Aunties tree and my Nan's Tree and many other tree's in Dulwich, was so powerful.
EGLL 270520Z 22030G46KT 9999 FEW025 14/08 Q0993 NOSIGEGLL 270550Z 23027G37KT 9999 -SHRA SCT022 14/09 Q0993 NOSIGEGLL 270620Z 23031G42KT 9999 FEW022 SCT050 14/07 Q0992 NOSIGEGLL 270650Z 24030G54KT 9999 FEW022 SCT040 14/06 Q0994 NOSIGEGLL 270720Z 24032G50KT 9999 FEW022 SCT040 13/05 Q0994 NOSIGEGLL 270750Z 24035G51KT 9999 -SHRA FEW022 BKN038 13/05 Q0994 NOSIGEGLL 270820Z 25033G53KT 9999 -SHRA FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0995 NOSIGEGLL 270850Z 25037G57KT 9999 FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0996 NOSIGEGLL 270920Z 25043G64KT 9999 FEW022 BKN038 13/04 Q0996 NOSIGEGLL 270950Z 25032G46KT 9999 SCT022 BKN038 13/05 Q0997 NOSIGEGLL 271020Z 26039G56KT 9999 -SHRA SCT025 BKN038 13/03 Q0997 NOSIGEGLL 271050Z 25038G55KT 9999 SCT026 BKN038 13/04 Q0998 NOSIGEGLL 271120Z 26034G47KT 9999 SCT028 SCT040 13/04 Q0999 NOSIGEGLL 271150Z 26034G50KT 9999 SCT030 SCT043 13/03 Q1000 NOSIGEGLL 271250Z 26034G48KT 9999 FEW035 SCT043 14/03 Q1002 NOSIGEGLL 271320Z 27027G40KT 9999 SCT038 SCT045 13/03 Q1004 NOSIGEGLL 271350Z 27032G48KT 240V300 9999 SCT038 SCT045 14/03 Q1005 NOSIGEGLL 271420Z 27031G45KT 9999 BKN042 13/02 Q1006 NOSIGEGLL 271450Z 27032G46KT 250V310 9999 BKN042 13/02 Q1008 NOSIGEGLL 271520Z 27025G38KT 9999 BKN042 13/02 Q1010 NOSIGEGLL 271550Z 27025G37KT 9999 FEW036 12/03 Q1011 NOSIGEGLL 271620Z 28023G34KT 9999 FEW035 11/04 Q1013 NOSIGEGLL 271650Z 27023G37KT 250V310 9999 FEW035 11/03 Q1014 NOSIGEGLL 271720Z 28024G36KT 9999 FEW032 11/03 Q1015 NOSIG
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How odd, 11 years ago this was. I remember it well!! Does anyone remember it? How uncannily similar.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/27oct2002storm.html
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Lots of visible lightning out west, near Heathrow direction. Heading this way...
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Lightning flash as I type.
South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/12/13
in Regional
Posted
Currently on downwind at 293knots ground speed which is 220knots indicated airspeed. 155mph in knots would have been 134knots TAS about 160knots indicated airspeed. 112mph would be about 130-140 knots for the aircraft on landing.
Reason for Go-Around was unstable approach, just listening in.
UAE9 just diverting.