[Summer Forecast Continued.]

Weather prediction Models are changing with every run that can be up to 4 times a day, the forecasts are updated as the models change-which of course makes sense, data is collected from the atmosphere-for example, and fed into a massive data base, this then creates the model runs which then is used to create a forecast by the forecasters. if the medium range forecasts stay the same for 30days because the models are the same each run then wouldn't that be good and also boring! the ups n downs of the models and putting together the forecast is what makes things a bit more exciting.

Lots of models and different models/data are used for - short range/medium range and long range forecasting.

The heatwaves have and are really trying to sweep in, its a battle of air masses, once the heat moves in then its pushed and pulled back down south again. we once again are in a period where heat is hitting the South and some filtering North, its this battle pattern thats been on and off for a long time, there is a chance that an area of High pressure will move up and sit in the right place and bring widespread blue skies and heat for everyone, the heat in and out of the South throughout August with cool conditions further North as Lows sweep by but thats not to say heat won't arrive up here at times, but hope is not all lost for a Northern summer, its August 1st, and even september can be very warm and more chance of High pressure in that month to!

That's a bit more indepth, and sometimes these models never get it right. I've been a victim of poor forecasting - I was sitting in the aircraft at Biggin Hill, forecast (TAF) and current METAR was 'CAVOK' - and this happened https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-snc3/18771_295037488340_735173340_3482434_7168205_n.jpg

Let's hope August is a decent scorcher, I spoke to the Metoffice this time last year and they where uncertain weather or not we could break 2003s MAX temp record, it could have happened but the high and lows didn't end up where we needed them, otherwise it would have happened. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/teens/casestudy_heatwave.html#p04

I am hoping this can happen. Doubt it though.

[Autumn 2011]

Yes I fly Light Aircraft, and whats the Daniel? A sign of winter? Lol

[Autumn 2011]

Hello Guys,

Quick replies there, and very detailed. I am 18, only basic Met understanding through Aviation Meteorology. (If you would like to call that basic) - it's allowed me to stay alive so far, that's for sure.

There are all sorts of theories, but my own would be a combination of the Oceans moving into a cooler phase (Pacific really, though the Atlantic will follow) and the extended, exceptionally weak solar cycle, which appears to have an especially pronounced effect on Europe in the form of blocking.

I've read upon this before, But I am guessing this is something to do with El Nino and La Nina right? As this affects global weather, specifically Europe as it's in the line of fire of the Gulf Jet Stream?

The only decent weather I remember was 1997 and 2003, Summer wise. But lets be honest, every year we expect a good forecast we get crap.

I remember Winters as Wet and windy, never cold. But of late it's been interestingly cold, can we get a hot/humid winter though??

[Summer Forecast Continued.]

Explain this to me please? Why does the Metoffice keep chaning it's forecast, first it was supposed to be a mini-heatwave then a washout. Now they are saying some rain but some rather very warmish interludes with fine days. Still unsettled but the chance to see some hot summers days? Could August turn out to be a scorcher then?

[Autumn 2011]

I can say one thing, we NEVER want to see that cold/warm/cold tripole in the eastern Pacific replicated in the Atlantic.

Why?

Question I have for you guys, I've heard that this Winter (2011-12) could see widespread heavy snowfall once again, for the first part of winter at the very least. This would result in the fourth bad winter in succession for the UK, and should prove to be the worst of them all. Widespread heavy snowfall and well below average temperatures that should see records broken.

Why the worst of them all? What's affecting/causing these weired weather patterns that we are having in the UK? I remember night time Thunderstorms, dry modest festive periods, not freezing cold winters. A very very very warm Summer with clear blue sky days, not like we have at the moment. Followed by mist in July??

Regards,

R

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 6]

Hmmm that's weird, just started raining on Centre Court, play suspended but theres naff all on the radar lol.

I have a view of Southwest London from here, and a good view of the Oval. Looks a bit misty/merky out there.

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 6]

The thunder is so loud! I'm loving all the videos.

When that falk lightning bolt went off, you could feel something hit you?? - then the bang!

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 6]

http://www.youtube.com/user/robbiegarrett?feature=mhee#p/a/u/0/nkyLxtrXisQ

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 6]

As I say again, if it had of gone off yesterday, would we have a Southern England? The CAPE, -LI yesterday was very rare.

Supercells, we probably would have got destroyed looking at those stats on post #315 if it had of exploded, and lets just say thank god it didn't, there's a huge population in the South East.

< took this whilst carelessly recording, so it didn't get the full falk! But I am rendering/uploading the video of the TS we had near Crystal palace on the hills near Kings College Hospital.

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 6]

Definitely something out towards the west of London, no precipitation yet. Very Cb like, anyone else see this? EGLL 281520Z 33005KT 300V010 9999 FEW008CB BKN013 18/16 Q101

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 6]

Cb Cell towards Heathrow from where I am. Looks a bit grey out there.

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 6]

Well that was just crazy, talk about Thunder & Lightning - it stopped not that long ago in South East London. Was at my Grandparents when it all kicked off, not far from Crystal Palace. Got Some Videos when it came over.

The cloud direction was bizzare! One cannot imagine, if this had of kicked off yesterday with all that CAPE, it would have done a lot more than strike Gatwicks ATC Tower, Block of Flats & roof tops.

Is that it then? No more for this evening?

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

Edge of cell just clipping city of London at the mo

WHERE WHERE? LOL!

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

No rain here yet in Billingshurst, to my sky very dark and can hear thunder in the distance!

A potent cell just passed directly over HEathrow Airport where i'm working. one or two VERY close strikes and flashes every 5-8 seconds

Nothing for me south of London City (in South East England for a while I guess)

EGLL 281150Z 32007KT 270V040 4000 TSRA SCT013 BKN020 17/15 Q1015 TEMPO BKN012

Heathrow looks like once again it is a firing line for Thunderstorms. Bugger all for SE London.

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

Heathrow now in 7000m in RAIN. Odiham light thunderstorm rain. And Farnborough in thunderstorm rain. It's kicking off west of London even before the Jersey Cell has even made it to the south downs, where in for an Afternoon of some powerfull stuff!

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

PROB30 TEMPO 2810/2816 4000 TSRA

for Heathrow Airport - so anything between 10z (11am) and 16z (1700) we are in for some TSRA - but Heathrow Tower's met forecaster knows something we don't giving it a Probability of 30% - he is after all trained in met.

Something forming West of EGLL right now.

My Jersey cell from this morning looks very mean indeed, intensifying as it goes over the south downs and then urban affect over London?

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

according to that! a miss!!!!

For Kent area? Have a look at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/ - Click Rainfall, then go through the forecast!

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

Our Jersey Cell, is throwing out 32mm > according to metoffice and there is more and more cells around it???

Light rain showers and thunderstorm in vicinity for Southampton, Now for the South Downs to do it's work, then your'e have the urban affect and bang over London

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

Pretty Hazy in London at the moment, very grey!

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

The Jersey Cell, looks to be de-tensifying as it's crossing the channel! - What sort of up to date radar stuff do you guys use?

It seems to be more widespread as it scraped Chebough.

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

_{The cold front isn't moving very far, there is a small cell just out by jersey lol}

Are these storms reliant on upper winds?? As the surface wind/upper winds would push it North east Towards London. 000-040 magnetic heading - at the direction the wind's flowing.

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

_{Jersey just had a Recent Thunderstorm - it's heading to the South of the UK!}

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

Metoffice Invent - http://www.metoffice...ent/weathermap/

Fantastic new way of forecasting from the MetOffice, has made me make some better decisions regarding flying. London should get hammered!

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 5]

PROB30 TEMPO 2806/2810 7000 -TSRA BKN012

For Heathrow, Gatwick & London City Airports.

This is mostly from the trough, which is already well over the UK - the cold front which should be west of London at 1200z (1300pm UK) 7KM in -SHRA with some low cloud, and some High level embedded Cb

[El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 4]

Hello All,

Only found about this forum this morning, I went flying in the South-East today, up to 2200ft/2300ft it was fairly stable, anything above that was pretty bumpy.

I've looked at the frontal Charts for tonight, and it show's a trough moving through to be over London at 0000z (0100am (UK LOCAL) - as from someone with more experience explained this to me earlier, that there are going to be ISOL CB's at FL90 (9,000ft) - with about 3000m in +TSRA/+SHRA possible OCNL! It's currently moving at 15 knots, so work out where it will be now if it's over London at 1am! About 30 NM west of London at this current time to be precise.

That weather band moving through must be the TROUGH as the Cold Front moving through only says Isolated Mist and rain/Drizzle! Heathrow is giving off PROB30 TEMPO 2718/2803 VRB18G28KT 5000 TSRA

Which means only a Probability of 30% of TSRA happening, which is quite low!! The midnight TAF is out shortly, so If I am still awake Ill check on it.

PPL Student, with 28hrs +