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Robbie Garrett

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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett

    22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    of couse its losing intensity crossing the channel! We need to be watching it when it meets landfall!

    Yes however I remember to recall last time I was online, the storms that hit land was only rainfall. Let's just wait and see, 2am if that storms de-intensifying more, call it a night.

    What I've learnt with weather is you cannot forecast it, at all - what you can do is go by the METARS, which is the current weather affectively, most accurate weather ever.

    22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Perhaps the more experienced will either agree or disagree, but is that a bowing MCS? It appears to me the front edge is moving out due north ahead of the rest of it - coupled with that it has shown signs of some exceptionally intense rainfall on the leading edge...if it indeed is a bowing MCS (verging into the severe category of storms I'd suggest) then it is likely to be packing some VERY strong winds on the leading edge, not ideal for any boats/ships which may be in the channel....that said, the 'bowing' feature could simply be associated with the winds arching around the LP centre...worth keeping an eye on though IMO

    I've spoke to someone on Skype earlier, and he was saying it could be a Gust Front.

    Decaying rapidly

    http://www.meteox.nl...on=-1.845703125

    While the storm across north east france explodes and is possibly dangerous!

    Is that a Supercell?

    22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    I'd also like to point out the humidity has jumped quite considerably in the past 60-90 mins - low level clouds including some Cu are streaming in from the ESE while the main bank of Ac continues to stream in from the south...most probably the anvils of Frenchie.

    Don't expect uniform development/activity...MCS' are seldom uniform and will collectively pulsate like a jellyfish, going through phases of weakening and intensification.

    UKASF anticipate the lightning activity to re-invigorate as it moves over the channel but appear pessimistic once it reaches land.

    I've noticed this, you can see the Cu more clearly aswell, I've turned my lights off so I can get a better view tonight. Got my HD 1080p camera charging which has a direct view of South London, which apparently has a severe flood warning on with the LFB. Only problem is the camera can be very grainy at night.

    Bear in mind that weather forecasts as they are now (from Meto and the BBC) have thunderstorms also coming in from that unstable (though currently dry) air over Belgium and Holland that we saw on a map a page or so back. Wouldnt also be surprised to see that 'secondary' (we'll call it secondary) orange and white blob behind the main front to expand and perhaps move slightly further east as it crosses the channel. No real scientific reason - just a combination of instinct and bbc forecasts....news worthy storm, this is!

    It's not on BBC forecasts/metoffice at all, just light rain according to what I am looking at.

    This is a beast though, I've not seen anything like this in a long time - at least 10 years.

    COME ON FRENCHIE!!

    22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Frenchie is getting rather scary..ohmy.png

    Do you have a photo? diablo.gif

    Yes that MCS is getting a bit to big for the UK, at the moment it covers an area so big, that it's the width of the entire south coast of England LOOOL!

    This is immense, come on FRENCHIE pick up and give us a storm to remember.

    Now Now Guys, Lauren's got Frenchie on her mind ;) haha!

    ....... France were carribean-esk!

    That's what I throught, looked like that video of that guy that went Hurricane Hunting when his wife didn't approve, was on BBC??

    22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Furthermore, Area D (London/East Anglia and South East) Occlusion and Warm Fronts moving North North East at 20knots with the Fronts overhead south downs or so at - Ocasional 7km visibility in Showers of Rain With TSRA (Thunderstorm In Rain) in area D1 is a cold front moving East at 10knots) (English Channel and France) and MAINLY FRONTS.

    So in English, best of the weather will be the South East, however most likely France/English Channel according to MetOffice Aviation.

    22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Sounds good to me biggrin.png

    TAF Updates soon, I'll see if it's a PROBABILITY or a 100% likely to happen, at the moment it's a 100% of a temporary change from CAVOK (Clouds and VIS OK) with a PROB30 of HEAVY Thunderstorm in Rain, but saying this those storms we had on the 27th June, that was a PROB30, with no 100% likely.

    EGLL 221115Z 2212/2318 07005KT CAVOK TEMPO 2301/2308 7000 SHRA TSRA PROB30 TEMPO 2302/2308 3000 +SHRA +TSRA BECMG 2304/2307 5000 BR -DZ SCT007 BKN010 TEMPO 2306/2312

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