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Robbie Garrett

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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett

    Autumn 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Thanks for confirming, am I correct in saying - that even though the solar output on the summer/autumn side of the sun is picking up, we are 12 weeks away from the Winter side of the sun, which could be totally different?

    Well I've had -15 at 5am in the Rural parts of London (Biggin Hill Airport) and that felt cold. But yes compared to many places, Winter in London is very warm compared to most parts, but that's mostly due to the urban affect.

    What was interesting is I've read that London could dip past the -20s this winter, bit far fetched but you never know anything is really possible, it is after all Great British Weather.

    Autumn 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The charts above seem a little wayward, I seriously doubt it would be below average 4-5 months in a run. Mind you these charts change quite frequently so I imagine they'll be showing a completely different outcome, come say October.

    Is there any records to suggest a 'Cold Summer' can lead to a very very harsh winter? Last year (August) was freezing, I don't think the next few months where any better, temperature wise. But this Summer has been so cold compared to many, that it could be a sign of things to come. September was quite good, as it usually is - but October/November/December was poor, January/February was just hazy, foggy/misty.

    This Summer I've shut the window a lot, because it's been so chilly. The fact that temperatures have been kept at bay so much this year, with not many blue sky sunshine days really does keep those temperatures down, I am wondering what September has to say for itself, if it's a cool one I think we can expect Winter to start late Autumn lasting till early January.

    We've got a cold air mass moving through, which will make the August CET pretty lowly, but these are the latest CET figures. June 13.8 -0.4 July 15.2 -0.8 August 16.4 0.5

    provisional, to the 23rd

    What's the Chances? Current provisional anomaly is 0.99 of *C and we are heading to Autumn/Winter - what's there to say that we may have the coldest year on record?

    French Imports - What went wrong?

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Robbie Garrett

    Harry, yes I remember very well. I am guessing because of these slack pressure systems the air masses are not strong enough to cause fantastic thunderstorms, that we are used to having. I am overly anticipating what this winter will do, but I am sure Autumn can bring more storms than Summer, from what I remember most of these night storms where late September/early October as very strong lows from the Atlantic moved in over the warm air situated over the UK/Europe and can give some nasty home grown storms.

    So what's the likely chances of some more Plumes?

    Last year, I can only remember 1 or 2 single-cell thunderstorms. This year I can count 6-7 single cell thunderstorms, and one MCS. So comparatively, it's not been as bad as last year, but still not where it should be.

    Regards,

    R..

    French Imports - What went wrong?

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Lool, some fantastic replies. But we cannot all blame the MetO as everyone mearly almost said last night we was going to get a severe thunderstorm.

    Looking at Frenchie yesterday, we almost did - but it decayed over the channel and stayed there for quite a few hours.

    Something is very wrong with the climate, either if that's normal 'Climate Change' or this rubbish theory behind 'Global Warming' - we should investigate?

    22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    This, from my opinion, is what currently is going on...

    Nothing Much has changed in the past hour, Frenchie is still there, Still producing some heavy rain in the Channel and over France and some sferics but no where near as many as a few hours ago. When Frenchie did hit land there wasn't much intensification, but from a MCS that wasn't even predicted it done pretty well!

    The occlusion front between Brest and London has been steadily been intensifying over the last 2 to 3 hours, but become stable in the past hour. Still Moving Due North.

    The Low centre is now over the Channel Islands with just a hit of some development within this zone...

    And lastly More towards the centre of France there still is some development, again heading North.

    I wouldn't yet right anything off, like I said there are some developments happing now, just waiting for another radar run to confirm something happening around the Channel Islands. The best thing to do in this situ is to watch and wait, but for the time being I think a break is in order! good.gif

    It will all pan out over the next few hours! wink.png

    Frenchieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! You seeing the tail end of it is still intense, over the English Channel?? Whilst the bit that was huge earlier has gone to a mear nothing over the UK, and now south of London as moderate rain.

    Let's see what happens over the next few hours, but really does look hit and miss out there.

    22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Robbie Garrett

    Right I'm off for a few hours shut eye, setting alarm for 3...if there's nothing happening, then will reset alarm for 5...I'm not running myself into the ground for stuff that's possibly hours away....

    Massively intense cells behind the dying remnants of Frenchie though and a lot of activity over NW France, where btw CAPE wasn't that high today at all.

    Best of luck everyone.....hopefully we'll be woken in the early hours by some great crashes and bangs...if not then I fear some walloping omelette on the faces of the Beeb and Met in particular!

    I've drawn this to show what we are babbling on about, first part of the latest Gatwick, Heathrow and Stansted TAFs Indicates EGKK 222301Z 2300/2406 08008KT 9999 FEW030 TEMPO 2300/2307 7000 SHRA TSRA PROB40 TEMPO 2300/2307 3000 +SHRA +TSRA SCT004 BKN010CB..................

    100% Thunderstorm in Rain, with a 40% chance of Heavy Thunderstoms in Rain.

    rm3dki.png

    Blue is your cold front, Purple is your (Occlusion) and red is your Warm Front.

    As you can see that's how the MetOffice portray things and what's on the radar.

    22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Has anyone seen the stuff tailing Frenchie? North West of Le Harve?

    Frenchie is still maintaining 16-32mm of rainfall at the moment, I believe - so let's not rule her out for strengthening, but has anyone also noticed the stuff forming west of Le harve? in a line from Eastbourne to Brest.

    It looks like Frenchie is bigger than we think, as all of this is joined together. The cold front has only just moving through, whilst the warm front (north of Frenchie) head northbound, now I am no Meteorologist, but 1am should probably see things kick off when the warm most air is replaced by the cold air from the Atlantic.

    Triple point fronts are extremely hard to get right.

    Haha would just like to say, Someone else named MCS 1 Frenchie, not me aha!

    They did say earlier they named it that, but can't remember who they were! good.gif

    I asked someone to name it, and someone did.....

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