Robbie Garrett
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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett
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UK Metoffice also shows the same thing, 60mph sustained winds inland, 80mph on coastal regions, gusting up to 100mph??
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I rarely think looking at these things so far in advanced ever! As it rarely is it correct, but is that an early, long cold winter starting there? High pressure building in the mid Atlantic and over Mother Russia! Allowing the lows to come in over the top....
Could well be?
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What's the latest model tracks? the one with all of them?
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The red arrow has been added by Robbie and is not the predicted path of Katia.
In order for any hurricane to survive crossing the jet stream and become a strong extratropical depression there will have to be some kind of ongoing regenerative cyclogenesis occurring. Even with a clear understanding of this process it will be very difficult to predict the exact position and strength of Katia early next week.
hahah, sorry! I still think it will happen though.
It's just anyones guess at the moment, it could go anywhere.
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Got a felling the jet is going to shift it right into us. More of an easterly path than a NE
That's what I believe, but as me and Harry are discussing, it also depends on the High pressure to the south of the UK on the continent, believed to be the Azores high.
It's all going to be hit and miss, what one it is depends on a lot of variables I am guessing.
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Whereas Robbie, we are uncertain of exactly how Katia will exactly interact with the jet stream, there are some things that we can be certain of. Firstly, when Katia reaches the North Atlantic, the fundamentals that influenced Katia's formation and strengthening as a hurricane will no longer come into play. Instead, Katia will be influenced by temperature contrasts between cold polar and warm moist tropical air of which Katia will have plenty of the latter. This is in turn is linked to the strength of the jet stream. Katia's positioning in terms of left exit of the jet stream is all important. The jet stream doesn't simply push Katia across the Atlantic.
If you could show me graphically, I am more likely to understand what you're on about, but I am guessing that as the weather is different in the Polars to the Tropics? What exactly will determine this Ex-Hurricane heading straight for the UK, as I thought the upper winds affect storms and what direction they move, in this case the JetStream?
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I'm of that inclination too! Not entirely sure why....just a feeling!
I have no scooby how JetStreams work but I think it could well be 'our' weather systems are returning to normal after a disaster of a few years. I mean yesterday really felt like the Autumn storms that I used to know. The models have not been that accurate these days anyway, so why for once should we believe these to be correct? It's only Wednesday, as people have said the best time to look at this baby is when it's hitting the Jetstream, as for all we know the Jetstream may stop it tracking north and push it eastwards??
Look at this image I have made, this is Sundays Jetstream forecast, I think that Mondays is irrelevant to this storm, and that such that Sundays Jetstream will push it to the UK/Europe with Mondays making it intensify as it hits the coast of west Ireland. That's just my thoughts??
Can anyone agree with this armchair forecast possibility?
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I still think it will hit the UK from the west/south west and not as far north as it says.
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Does anybody know what's needed to change Katia's direction towards the UK?? I understand that the High Pressure to the south is pushing her Northeastwards mid-atlantic, but what would need to change to get it going eastwards?
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Well technically it will be an Ex-Tropical storm I beliveve, but it may have hurricane force winds.
I get it now, lol! I've just re-read the Chart and feel like an idiot
Well looking at the charts, its that High Pressure to the south which is forcing Katia northwestwards. Hopefully something changes and Katia's path changes, as that left turn it's making according to NHC NOAA is very annoying.
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Looking at this, NHC still show Hurricane Katia as a Hurricane north of Scotland, isit me or am I going blind? but it does say H??
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LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL! ^^^^^^^^^^^^
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Thought I'd start a topic to discuss the above title, I can't see it happening - but 80mph sustained winds gusting 100mph sounds a field day for the MetOffice.
Discuss!
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Shame there isn't a strong high pressure at Greenland at the moment, as then UK could get a direct hit from Katia. Otherwise it's going to go right over the top of Iceland, and then disintegrate.
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Is there really any point paying the remotest nanosecond of our brain power on "friday's potential"?
I'll give you a forecast without looking at the charts and we can see how accurate it is....
Loool you so optimistic, I reckon you should edit it to reflect that there is a barrier on the English Channel that says Lettuce off Thunderstorms, to annoy the UK storm chasers!
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It was very brief, but nothing since - definately Cb though as it's in the Heathrow Metar!
Which I've never ever seen before - EGLL 061550Z 26016KT 9999 4000E RADZ FEW005 FEW013CB BKN018 16/14 Q1004 BECMG NSW
becoming No Significant Weather?? LOL!
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Just had lightning, visibility where I am is shocking! Can't see next door!
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The 12z NAE shows wind speeds of 35-40mph along the south coast and up the eastward facing North Sea coasts as far as Norfolk, so gales here with some gusts of upto 60mph should be expected. This isn't a particularly bad storm, more conspicuous for presenting itself this early in the season than anything else IMO.
That's what I thought? What was that storm we had in the early 00s that gave us 90/100mph winds? It took out a tree that was 100ft in my nan/grandads back garden. I seem to remember that was particularly bad for the South East.
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Scale 12 is hurricane force, not a hurricane itself, lol
Hit me now?? However we could debate it all day, if it's giving the exact weather as a Hurricane and looks like one on the satellite.
I am guessing this Squal line for tomorrow will setup some nasty Thunderstorms for the UK?
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Nope. As others have said Irene veered off somewhere between Greenland and Iceland. Re the Beaufort scale and converting to knots .......
Thanks very much, that's absolutely amazing - so good I Favorited it. I've just had a look at the last one, on the Beaufort wind scale and it says 12 is a Hurricane, surely it's still considered an extra-tropical cyclone even if those sustained winds hit 115mph+?
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Total so far: 805 mm (below average)
Imagine that falling in an hour...
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If I am correct, this is ex Hurricane Irene?
Good thing I live 90-100ft up then, nothing tree like shall hit me unless they are taller than this building, and in that case I can't see them higher than this building.
Maybe the Metoffice know something we don't? However there are the following which I don't quite understand as it's not in Knots... http://www.metoffice..._printable.html
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Already 23mph Gusting 43mph here. I have to ask as I am not very familiar with those charts posted above, surely there's no thunderstorm activity forecasted?
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.................
Lettuce me, with a forecast like that it will close just about every school, airport, road, motorway and public transport system going. Let's just hope it's so bad the media can't get into work, so we don't have to put up with there nonsense reporting.
I guess I wont be doing many flying once I've got my license till the new year then, unless I stick to the circuit.
Autumn 2011
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Why dont we just change the topic title to Winter 2011/12 as it's a useful thread.