Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?

Robbie Garrett

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,990

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Robbie Garrett

    25-26th October 2011 - Convective/storm Discussion & Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Robbie Garrett

    Yea,

    I must admit I am getting a bit hacked off, London is well over due some storm goodness. I have some family in Durham and they got spoilt last night, not to mention all the OTHER storms they have had this year!. I think it's going to be rain all the day here, storm chasing in May and June this year seems like a very distant memory!

    Looks to be some cells forming in a line down the southwest. 2nkmbtw.png

    I've highlighted the ones in red that could give us some brief thunderstorms, monitor those over the next few hours. See what it does.

    25-26th October 2011 - Convective/storm Discussion & Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Quite clear to make out troughs on the current/recent radar, these troughs moving north with the southerly flow aloft:

    post-1052-0-00719900-1319563049_thumb.pn

    12z Larkhill radiosonde ascent earlier fairly unstable with steep lapse rates to around 550mb/15,000ft - enough cloud depth for storms this afternoon, the profile pretty saturated too below 550mb shown by the two black lines (dew point and temp) being close together:

    post-1052-0-89483000-1319563165_thumb.gi

    Any chance for anything for London Nick? It's looking Pitch Black out there tonight, darker than most nights.

    UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Robbie Garrett

    Fair amount of convection kicked off in the past hour or so...some nice dark skies around London at the moment with some nice towers about.

    Sets up an interesting evening/night IMO.

    Would be nice to get a nighttime MCS, last time I remember one of those was during the 1999 brixton bomb in Iceland. Not sure if anyone remembers that, but on that evening it was extremely thundery, with constant lightning. Also during that period, the bomb went off.

    However I think we've had a few since, but cannot for the love of life remember.

    It was yesterday, but we're spreading the celebration over three days. Saturday was Thorpe park, yesterday family and cake and Wednesday a posh steak dinner. So I still consider myself celebrating!

    Happy Belated Birthday Miss, hope you had a good day and interesting few days ;)

    25-26th October 2011 - Convective/storm Discussion & Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Harry seeing as you're alive, I am guessing the location of that Trough and the wind direction is good for French Imports??

    HAHA!!! LOL!!! Yeah I've been fairly absent lately, combination of too much work, relationship, studies, social life and the likes...plus a distinct absence of convective potential!!

    I think imports are decent bet...the Channel should serve to beef up any potential showers/storms/thundery rain, however it becomes a little bit less certain as things progress over land. The synopsis from Estofex and Nick F are promising, however UKASF is much more conservative with the focus around coastal areas.

    Predicting how far inland any action gets will be difficult IMO. Normally 15-20 miles is a reasonable estimate, but with rapidly falling uppers it could continue well inland. In short, I don't know cray.gif

    Haha!! Also your PM feature doesn't work anymore, wont let me PM you.

    Yeah I am looking at it at the moment, the trough is just starting to come over the channel. Will be south of Brighton at 1800z according to the Aviation section of the MetOffice. Hence the convective showers being set off all over the south at the moment. Looking at the CAPE levels, it seems to be mostly over the channel or Le France, annoyingly.

    So unless we get some big imports, it's a non-event this one unfortunately.

    25-26th October 2011 - Convective/storm Discussion & Reports

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Robbie Garrett

    Anyone in Area A1 will get Isolations of +SHRA/+TSRAGS with localised Embedded CBs from 01500ft-3000ft on the TROUGHS. According to the TAFs it's going to happen between lunchtime and midnight. Looking at the frontal synopsis anything between 1800 and 6am tomorrow, so any lightning should light the sky up.

    21jpvdz.png

    LONDON LUTON EGGW 250500Z 2506/2606 17012KT 9999 SCT025 PROB40 TEMPO 2506/2508 BKN009 TEMPO 2512/2603 7000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2515/2603 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN012 BKN020CB BECMG 2603/2606 23012KT LONDON/CITY EGLC 250801Z 2509/2518 17009KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 2511/2518 6000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 2515/2518 3000 +SHRA +TSRA BKN014CB spacer.gifLONDON/GATWICK EGKK 250503Z 2506/2612 17008KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 2511/2612 7000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2512/2612 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN014 BKN025CB BECMG 2609/2612 20012KT LONDON/HEATHROW EGLL 250503Z 2506/2612 17010KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO 2511/2612 7000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2513/2524 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN014 BKN025CB BECMG 2601/2604 22007KT LONDON/STANSTED EGSS 250500Z 2506/2612 17012KT 9999 SCT030 PROB40 TEMPO 2506/2508 BKN010 TEMPO 2512/2603 7000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 2515/2603 3000 +SHRA TSRA BKN014 BKN025CB BECMG 2603/2606 23010KT PROB30 TEMPO 2609/2612 7000 SHRA

    Harry seeing as you're alive, I am guessing the location of that Trough and the wind direction is good for French Imports??

    ukcapeli.png

    Some nice Tcu building up here over south London in the bright sunshine. Showers are getiing going now across central-S England.

    Let's hope it builds throughout the day, Diurnal is not till 3/4pm when things should be at max pot.

×
×
  • Create New...