John S2

Should first mention that my nomination for worst year - 1985, featuring a particularly bad summer - doesn't quite make the list for any individual month. Most boring year - 2002 - also doesn't feature for individual months. Jan 2021 Feb 1972 Mar 1986 Apr 1994 Had a vile first week - unusual for a month which is sometimes the best month of the year here in NW England May 1996 Coldest of my lifetime, but a good summer followed June 1998 July 1988 Wettest on record Aug 2008 Exceptionally dull Sept 1976 Oct 2000 Floods Nov 2022 Numerous others just as bad Dec 2020

The best months in NW England for outdoor exercise, particularly in areas further North than Manchester, are often when the winds are from the NE quarter. Such months can often be dull, cold, or even thundery in other parts of England. If you ever want to visit the Lake District, for example, if the models show this type of pattern developing then that is likely to be a good time to visit.

Location = Lancashire Jan - 2022. Mild & dry, good for outdoor activity. Important for getting sufficient exercise at this time of year Feb - 2019. Heatwave - an even better version of Jan 2022 Mar - 1973. Very anticyclonic - some other years are similar Apr - 1989. Unusually large number of snow days, which are a novelty if the winter has been mild as in 1989 May - 1980. Bone dry until the last day. So dry there were some fires on the moors June - 2021. Summer 2021 as a whole is one of my favourites. Really good in the North West for locations further North than Manchester July - 1982. Anticyclones located in the perfect positions for good weather here in the Northwest. Much poorer further South. Second half of Aug 2021 was similar Aug - 1997 Sept - 1986. Exceptionally cold and also very dry. Day after day of proper clear blue sky Oct - 2016. A rare example in these parts of a good October for the outdoors. Nov - 1988. Dry, but included a little snow Dec - 1968. Bit of everything

Early days, but model output plus what has happened so far this September suggest the possibility that Sept 2022 might finish wetter than average for much of the country. Historically there has been a significant difference between the winter CET following a dry August depending on whether September is wet or dry. Group 1: 1976, 1981, 1984, 1995 - following winter CETs 3.2, 2.4, 2.7, 3.0 respectively, all 4 Septembers wet Group 2: 1947, 1959, 1991, 2003 - following winter CETs 5.1, 4.6, 4.5, 4.7 respectively, all 4 Septembers dry

There is a large area SE of Newfoundland with SST anomaly greater than +3C, some area greater than +4C. This is likely to lead to some powerful storms heading our way at some point during Autumn when other factors align due to the temperature contrast with cold air from the North being greater than usual.

At a local level rainfall figures for summer months can be heavily skewed by localised thunderstorms, which is why national figures [or a larger region] are more useful for the purpose of this thread. Rainfall numbers available here: Met Office Hadley Centre HadUKP Data Download WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

The direction of travel in ENSO state was very likely one of the factors involved in generating the right conditions for a good summer. Years which are transitioning during summer towards a first year La Nina tend to produce poor summers. This occurred in 2020 - the 3rd wettest summer on record here in NW England. Conversely, years starting with La Nina conditions and transitioning through an ENSO neutral summer towards El Nino later in the year have been particularly good. 1976, 2006, and 2018 are in this category. I suspect it is the way the atmosphere behaves in the Pacific immediately prior to an El Nino which is the key. This presumably causes a +AAM state which is conducive to summer blocking in our vicinity.

Incredible extremes in summer 1988. Dramatic switch of weather type at end of June. In the Scotland rainfall series [period of record 1931-present], June 1988 is the driest June in the series, July 1988 is the wettest July in the series.

Interesting that you should mention 2002. That is the year that I would also describe as the most boring I have endured from a weather point of view.

The majority of volcanic eruptions have little effect on temperature or weather patterns globally, but occasionally sufficient particles are projected high into the atmosphere and block sunlight. This can depress global temperatures for a couple of years and also affect weather patterns. The most recent eruption of this magnitude was Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991. Global temperatures were lowered for a couple of years following until the particles dispersed. Another example is the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, followed by the 'year without a summer' in 1816.

Here in NW England we expect the month of August to be poor - decent Augusts have always been uncommon - but what is depressing is a recent tendency for very wet Junes. June 2020 is yet another that features in the top 20 wettest Junes for this region [Hadley regional data for last 148 years]. We now have 6 of the last 15 years that feature in the top 20 wettest: 2012 (1), 2007 (2), 2017 (12), 2020 (14), 2019 (16), 2016 (18) In a stable climate it would be expected that only a couple of the last fifteen years would be in the top twenty. The fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture is insufficient explanation, on its own, for what is going on. Diabolical that 4 of the last 5 Junes are in top twenty wettest.

Maybe not, but it is about probability.

Considering years from 1950 to present, my best analogue years are 1974, 1980, 1988, 2007 No year is ever a perfect match of course. I have rejected years with dry winters or El Nino summers as it looks likely there will be a tendency towards La Nina during summer 2020. However, Matt Hugo on Twitter has posted today that a seasonal model update he has access to is now showing a +ve pressure anomaly for NW Europe this summer. This gives hope to anyone who might find memories of the years mentioned above a little depressing.

July 2013 was a hot month for the UK although it has to be accepted that it followed a run of six poor summers. On the subject of summer 2015 one possible influence is shown in this chart: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201501-201507.gif An area of the North Atlantic was record cold for the Jan-July period and given that our weather generally comes from the West this is bound to have some effect on temperatures. The fact that this area has been record cold does not mean that global warming is not happening. One of the contributing factors is increasing Greenland ice melt.

Yes. The inundation of New York due to Hurricane Sandy was made worse by a one foot rise in sea level in that area over the last century:http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2012/superstorm-sandy-and-sea-level-rise It should also be pointed out that sea level has recently been rising faster than IPCC estimates.

Sea level is rising at a rate of 3.2mm/year, as this chart from University of Colorado shows:http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

Why is 2012 being classed as a La Nina year? We had La Nina conditions at the beginning of 2012 but surely it makes more sense for 2012 to be classified as ENSO neutral? Surely any particular year should only be classified as a La Nina year if La Nina has been the dominant state when conditions are averaged over the whole year?

It will be interesting to see what reputable climate scientists have to say about the methodology.Is this latest paper another attempt at suggesting that most recent warming is natural? The methodology employed by these authors has been found to be flawed on previous occasions.

Extent may currently be similar to or higher [depending on which source is used] than some recent years, but volume is at record low [see link] which means the ice is thinner. It is therefore more vulnerable to melt. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2_CY.png?%3C?php%20echo%20time%28%29?

Yes. Scotland temperature record for March broken on 3 consecutive days, wettest April on record in the UK series, then the May of two halves.

This article in Nature reports that at least 74% of recent warming is caused by man rather than natural factors http://www.nature.com/news/three-quarters-of-climate-change-is-man-made-1.9538

La Nina appears to be a more stable pattern than El Nino. I suspect this is because La Nina is an enhancement of normal [ie ENSO neutral] conditions, El Nino is a reversal of normal.

I like mild southwesterly gales in winter, dry and sunny the rest of the year January 1993 February 1990 March 1990 April 1974 May 1980 [virtually rainless in East Lancashire] June 1970 July 1982 [very dry in East Lancs, visibility on sunny days much clearer than the following year] August 1995 September 1986 October 1969 November 1994 December 1972

This is an interesting subject. I think the theory was that the jet stream would tend to be a little further North on average which would lead to warmer, drier, summers. Instead, 2011 will be the 5th summer in a row that has had above average rainfall in the UK, although there have been significant local variations. It should be emphasised that this is a regional effect. This summer has been warm over much of the USA away from the Northwest, for example. There are several factors that could be conspiring to produce poor summers in the UK: 1) July & August have a tendency [not a 'rule'] to be better when the atmosphere is behaving in an El Nino fashion rather than Nina. Recent years have seen prolonged periods with high positive SOI numbers - associated with La Nina. 2) Solar influences - this needs more research 3) The warming of the arctic could actually be helping to move the jet stream further South at our longitude in summer by shifting the zones of greatest thermal contrast On the subject of colder winters, the most plausible theory I have come across is that the state of the sun's magnetic field - it has been exceptionally low recently - indirectly affects the jet stream and causes more blocking. The warming arctic could possibly enhance this, but I don't believe the evidence supports the idea that lack of sea ice is a primary driver. What I am saying is that there are numerous factors which influence our weather, some of which are independent from the global warming signal. 2010 was strange in that it was a cold year in the UK but warmest on record globally [but any difference from 2005 & 1998 is statistically insignificant]