Styx
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Posts posted by Styx
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17 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
I wouldn’t want to have an Australian or Southern Hemisphere type Christmas.
I reckon most Australians would have a preference for a cold Christmas with the chance of snow, without a doubt. I am in my 40's and have experienced 12 Christmases on that side. There is something a little bit wacky with all the wintry symbolism, decorations and music over here, as summer kicks off in earnest. Christmas is bigger, brasher and better over there as a collective event I think, more soul, just because everything is a little bit more real.
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Australia had its hottest spring with near average rainfall. Stats and maps from 'Climate summaries' and 'Climate change - trendline' pages.
Mean temperature anomaly ( compared to 1961-1990 ) : +2.0c
Sep......+2.5c Second warmest on record
Oct......+1.1c
Nov......+2.5c Warmest on record
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November - Hobart, Tasmania
This was the second warmest November in 139 years of records with a mean temperature anomaly of +2.6c above 1981-2010, or +2.9c above 1961-1990. It was the driest for 13 years.
Mean maximum: 22.3 ( +3.4 )
Mean minimum: 11.8 ( +1.9 )
Rainfall: 12mm ( average 54mm )
Rain days ( +1mm ) : 4/from total 6
Summer came early in a month notable for almost uninterrupted above average temperature. The typical zonal westerly flow of spring with regular fronts and coolness was replaced by high pressure belt extending across southern Australia. Calms days with afternoon seabreezes and warm periods as high pressure to the east, fed warm air off the continent, which had a record hot November overall. The wettest day was 6mm on the 16th with a passage of a front, together with some thunder. After that, only 0.2mm was recorded for the rest of the month.
Extremes in daily temperature for November ( records since 1882 )
High max: 32.6......11th ( record 36.8 in 2019 )
Low max: 15.9.......15th ( record 8.3 in 1913 )
High min: 19.1.......4th ( record 19.9 in 1937 )
Low min: 4.9.......8th ( record 1.7 in 1941 )
History: How this warm November stacked up
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SATURDAY NOV 28: New South Wales recorded its highest November temperature today, 46.9c in the state's upper west. Sydney's maximum of 40.8c was the third highest for November ( records go back to 1859 ). Victoria came within 0.1c of its November record, South Australia state came within 0.4c. Lots of November records at individual stations, mostly in the west and south of New South Wales. This November may well be the warmest Australia has seen for average temperature, thanks to this widespread multi day heatwave.
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FRIDAY NOV 27: Very hot across Australia today. I have added the maximums on the MetEye map. Hotter tomorrow - good chance of November state temperature records being broken. BoM senior forecaster says: " Heatwaves are normal at this time of year but the temperatures and duration of this event will be exceptional". There will be a high fire risk for New South Wales on Sunday.
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A lot has happened this year but it was only 12 months ago ( in December ) that Australia was on fire and heat records were set in every state. Yet here we go again with another possibly 'historic' heat event ( for the month of November, at least ). Will be measured by how many states manage to set a new extreme maximum temperature for Nov and the number of towns and stations likewise to do so.
Spring scorcher: 4500 kilometre-long heatwave set to smash temperature records in Australia - NZ Herald
WWW.NZHERALD.CO.NZThe record for Australia's hottest ever November day could soon be broken. -
"Temperatures in the mid to high 40s will break numerous November records across central, southern and eastern Australia at the end of the week. One to watch"
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November has been hot and dry across Australia with a stagnant weather pattern and the final week of the month is showing a heck of a lot of heat with some very high temperatures. I don't think the Australia temperature record for November will go ( 48.7c in Queensland in 1990 ) but I'll be watching South Australia state in particular ( 47.9c record in 1993 ) and Northern Territory ( 46.1c record in 1990 ) as potential flashpoints. Chance of very hot weather making it the populated east and south coasts later on, which is always problematic. October was pleasantly wet as La Nina weather pattern fed moisture inland, there's a lot of hope for the resumption of that in December.
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October - Hobart, Tasmania
Wet and dull with a mean temperature anomaly of -0.7c below 1981-2010 or -0.6c below 1961-1990. It was the wettest October since 2001 and the coolest since 2009.
Mean maximum: 16.0 ( -1.3 )
Mean minimum: 8.2 ( -0.1 )
Rainfall: 122mm ( average 61mm )
Rain days ( +1mm ) : 12/from total 16
La Nina weather pattern. Low pressure over the mainland and persistent high pressure down south. Wind light and onshore from the south or east so often cloudy and dull. Occasional non active fronts keeping things chilled. All the main weather activity was from the north, this interacted or was in the wake of cold fronts, bringing cold and rainy days, with light winds. Almost 70mm fell between the 3rd-5th with heavy snow settling 900m. About 40cm of snow at 1300m level. Low pressure troughs moving south brought 30mm on the 8th-9th and 11mm on the 17th. Cold front on the night of the 15th brought a few centimeters of snow to 1000m and a dusting to near 700m observable on the morning of the 25th.
Extremes in daily temperatures for October ( records since 1882 ) :
High max: 20.9.....2nd ( record 34.6 in 1987 )
Low max: 10.3.....5th ( record 6.0 in 1958 )
High min: 12.9.....3rd ( record 20.2 in 1933 )
Low min: 1.9.....6th ( record 0.0 in 1889 )
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Hail measuring 14cm across - some of the largest stones ever recorded in Australia - smashed through roofs south of Brisbane on Sunday, leading to a damage bill in excess of $100m. Australia is likely to see more severe storms ( and cyclones ) than normal over the next few months with a La Nina weather pattern. Cyclone season officially begins Nov 1. BoM forecasting a 66% chance of more than 11 cyclones in Australia waters and more than 4 crossing the coastline.
http://www.abc.net.au//news-web/assets/touchicon.png 'Catastrophic' south-east Queensland storms lead to thousands of insurance claims, homes deemed 'unliveable' - ABC News
WWW.ABC.NET.AUThousands of insurance claims continue to pour in as south-east Queensland counts the cost of a "catastrophic" supercell that...-
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Have you removed the signature display on posts ?
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September - Hobart, Tasmania
A lot of mild days and quite dry with a mean temperature anomaly of +0.9c above 1981-10 or +1.1c above 1961-1990.
Mean maximum: 16.8 ( +1.4 )
Mean minimum: 7.3 ( +0.4 )
Rainfall: 35mm ( average 53mm )
Rain days ( +1mm ) : 10/from 15
Spring starts more settled than normal with a tempered westerly wind belt which is normally boisterous this time of year. Less active cold fronts, less wind and no cold outbreaks from the south of any note. A high number of mild days but no driver to draw heat down south, despite Australia having its second hottest September with a very high temperature anomaly. A dusting of snow to 1200m on the 10th behind a cold front and to 800m into the morning of the 14th and 17th. More regular showers between the 24th-26th with cold fronts and low pressure moving up from the south west. Settled snow near 1000m lowering to 600m on the afternoon and night of the 26th. The trailing high then passed just to the north swinging winds milder northwest. The wettest day was 10mm into the 26th.
Extremes in daily temperature for September ( records since 1882 ) :
High max: 23.2.....7th ( record 31.0 in 1987 )
Low max: 12.5.....25th ( record 6.1 in 1885 )
High min: 14.6.....8th ( record 18.0 in 1973 )
Low min: 1.8.....1st ( record -0.8 in 1897 )
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Nothing too unusual about the recent cold snap in south-east Australia from my perspective. Wintry outbreaks still happen in September with light snow in higher towns but they never last for long. The seasonal shift happens in earnest from October. I was quite surprised BoM issued a severe video warning about it. It would be better if they added a few words about the historical significance of interesting weather events. Social and commercial media always hyper exaggerate snow weather, as happens over there.
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A snowline of near 800m this morning. A typical September will usually produce a snowline as low as 300-400m on at least one day, but I don't see that happening this month.
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2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:
not yet Aug 2020 was the 19th month in a row of below average temperatures
That's crazy!
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On 02/09/2020 at 00:54, cheeky_monkey said:
Edmonton Alberta:
High Temp 30.4c - 18th
Low Temp -0.9c - 31st
Ave High 22.7c
Ave Low 7.4c
Mean Temp 15.1c
Rainfall 65.5mm
Rain Days 9
Ground Frost 4
Air Frost 1
Any break yet from the endless run of colder than average months there?
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August - Hobart, Tasmania
A wet month with a mean temperature anomaly of -0.1c below 1981-2010 or +0.3c above 1961-1990
Mean maximum: 13.6 ( -0.1 )
Mean minimum: 5.5 ( -0.2 )
Rainfall: 104mm ( average 54mm )
Rain days ( +1mm ) : 10/from 17
August started with a progressively colder outbreak moving in from southwest, with low level snow. The coldest airmass arrived on the 4th with a temperature close to 0c at sealevel during the morning. Strong cold outbreaks typically come in from the southwest which is problematic for very low snow in Hobart, situated in the southeast. Unfortunately, not much luck with this one. Nevertheless, the day was very cold and cloudy, as low pressure formed just off the southeast coast making prospects interesting with a temperature of around 4-5c for most of the day. Rain moved in from mid-afternoon from the east with thunder, snow briefly settled at 200-300m ( hill suburbs ), but milder air filtered through off the coast pretty quickly and the snow level rose. The rain at night was steady and loud with 46mm and a big dump of snow to 600m by morning. High pressure between the 6th-12th brought frost and fog and this period included the lowest temperature ever recorded in Tasmania ( -14.2c ). Milder but cloudy between the 13th-20th as a broad area of low pressure approached from the north west. This was feeding some warmer air down off the continent and night temperatures were markedly higher. Some areas of showers increasing to periods of rain as low pressure area formed off Tasmania's northeast coast. Another round of cold fronts from the southwest between the 21st-23rd, snow settling at 600-800m; the showers and snow heavier on the 22nd with a more favorable moisture laden southerly wind. A further front on the night of the 27th with snow settling at 800m, then springlike warmth and sunshine with high pressure centred over southeast Australia. The 30th was very windy and sunny ahead of a cold front then a few showers on the 31st with snow settling 700m
Extremes in daily temperature for August ( records since 1882 ) :
High max: 21.6.....30th ( record 24.5 in 1977 )
Low max: 8.8.....5th ( record 5.5 in 1974 )
High min: 11.8.....29th ( record 15.0 in 2005 )
Low min: 0.4.....10th ( record -1.8 in 1962 )
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Australia had a warm winter overall with record warmth in Western Australia. No state managed to drop below the 1961-1990 temperature average but Victoria was just below the 1981-2010 average . It was a dry winter too, with a 20% rainfall deficiency.
Mean temperature anomaly ( compared to 1961-1990 ) : +1.15c
June.....+1.1
July......+1.0
August.....+1.4
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I hate to ruin the winter theme here but Australia has just recorded its highest winter temperature on record, 41.2c at Roebuck in Western Australia's Kimberley region this afternoon. The previous record was set yesterday - 40.7c at Yampi Sound Defence and before this event began, the Australia winter high was 40.0c at Kalumbura Mission, in 1970. Roebuck appears to have only 17 years of records and I am unable to readily find anything for Yampi. These sites may have replaced closed sites. Nevertheless, August heat records were widespread in that part of the world, including the main towns of Port Hedland and Broome ( 600 kilometres apart ). The ACCESS 850hpa chart is a forecast chart, advancing the situation four hours ahead of time. At least with La Nina on the horizon, we could be looking at a wet spring/summer and a cooler theme, so with a bit of luck, no more heat records to report for a while.
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Part 3 End. Launceston, Tasmania. That feeling of witnessing snow for the very first time in your home environment.
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Part 2 Snow eased about Tasmania's exposed west and south during the day, but an east coast low was forming. Very cold and overcast in the east before thunder rain broke out in the south-east during the afternoon ( Hobart ) with low level snowfall, but rain turned to snow slightly inland and worked itself up over the lowland corridor all the way to the north shutting down the major north-south link. This was a rare weather phenomena. Launceston is Tasmania's second largest city ( population 105,000 ); first snow of its kind there since 1921. The last settled fall was 1974 (but about half an inch)
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Part 1 Tuesday began with a very cold airmass over Tasmania originating from waters close to Antarctica. Extreme minimums were -10.1c at Liawenee ( 1050m asl ) in Central Tasmania and -7.2c Mt.Wellington/kunanyi ( 1260m asl ) above Hobart, in the south-east. Behind the front, heavy snow about the western and southern mountains and a dusting in places below 200m asl mostly near the west and south coast and to the south of Hobart. If the cold outbreak had wound down in usual fashion at this point, it would have been the wintriness outbreak for Tasmania as a whole for about 4 years - but there was more to come. I have selected some of the nicest photos from newspaper and social media accounts I have seen this week, and double checked they are all recent. These were taken on Tuesday morning:
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BREAKING 6AM.....In the wake of the cold snap, Tasmania has recorded its coldest temperature on record early Friday morning, -14.2c at Liawenee in central Tasmania! Liawenee is a small settlement near Great Lake - 1000m asl. Records from Liawenee ( covering the winter months ) began in 1988. It has an August mean minimum of -1.4c. There are widespread sub zero readings away from the coast this morning, but nothing like this. Tasmania's previous record low was -13.0c and previous August low -11.1c.
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I am going to go out on a limb here by saying Tasmania has just had its biggest snow event of the century. This is hard to quantify because of the size of the island and its different mini climate zones, but the variables I have used are a) traffic disruption across large areas b) rarity of low-level snow on the ground in places- at or near sealevel - c) quantity of snow. Hobart had more favorable conditions in August 2015, but its been a snow bonanza in so many other places over the last 24 hours. Later, I will write some more and post some of the better pictures. The winter snow drought of 2020 is officially over.
Cold front brings snow to Tasmania as weather alert issued for damaging winds - ABC News
WWW.ABC.NET.AUSnow falling across Tasmania causes power cuts and road closures, stranding some motorists on the major north-south highway. The Bureau of Meteorology warns severe weather is predicted to...-
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Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects
in Climate Change
Posted
It would be interesting to see a graph showing temperature anomaly at different latitudes plotted alongside each other, spanning a number of years, but longer the better. Or.. since the Arctic region seems to be the standout 'hotspot' for obvious reasons , a line graph plotting Arctic region anomaly v Global anomaly.