Styx
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Monday's recorded temperatures
Last map in series adding Tasmania to the long-list of records set across the country this month. Almost every district in Tasmania had a weather station that broke its December record yesterday ( from north to south, highlands, coastal and inland ). The extreme maximum was 41.9c at Friendly Beaches on the east coast. Unfortunately just 23 years of records from that site. Nevertheless Hobart's 40.8c broke the long-standing Tasmania record set in Hobart way back in 1897 of 40.6c. Every few years ( at best ) Tasmania will nudge 40c somewhere - almost always in the inner south-east or midlands. It's much rarer for Hobart due to sea breeze. It was actually blowing in lightly at times yesterday causing a temperature yo-yo. The Hobart max was the equal second hottest temperature for any month ( tie with Jan 1976 ) and behind 41.8c of Jan 2013.
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As of 4pm a maximum of 40.8c ( +21 above average ) and a December record. Many heat records across Tasmania including Tasmania's highest recorded temperature for December. More to come...
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On land, Australia’s rising heat is ‘apocalyptic.’ In the ocean, it’s worse.
WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COMTasmanian Aboriginals faced genocide, and now extreme climate change is threatening what’s left of their culture.
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Good God. It doesn't stop. A hair's breadth of December records for Melbourne and Hobart on Monday. To have monthly heat records topple one after another across the entire country is simply alarming. More on these developments on Monday..
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On 04/12/2019 at 06:32, Thundershine said:
TBH I've never experienced a scary or bad thunderstorm in the UK (despite living in the SE). I did experience an electrical storm with constant strobing lightning in July 1999 in Windsor though, which was very impressive
That thunderstorm may have been part of same stormline that violently shook Salisbury that summer. Non stop lightning but loudest thunder claps I have heard. The worst weather to be in a tent thinking any second you are going to be hit. Seen heaps of thunderstorms since then but that one is still the wildest.
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Best wishes to everyone this Christmas. A very nice gift of rainfall across coastal Queensland and scattered showers over the fireground in New South Wales early this morning. Not much but enough to calm things down a little. Not so pleasant in northern Australia with a 47.9c max at Rabbit Flat ( 340m asl ) in the Northern Territory. That is a December record for Northern Territory so another one to add to the list. 45.7c in Alice Springs ( 545m asl ) and that is also a December record for them.
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Saturday recorded temperatures:
Extreme heat was concentrated mainly across New South Wales. NSW temperatures were a little lower than forecast and the cool change moving up from the south was less windy. An interesting weather phenomenon in Sydney basin - mid to high level smoke produced an insulating inversion for most of the day suppressing temperatures to 29c in the city and 41c in Sydney's west ( the forecast was 36-47c ). Just outside the Sydney area 45s were common. Canberra re-broke its December record. Three of the five hottest December days on record in Canberra occurred last week ( records since 1939 ).
Sunday and Christmas day forecast
Extreme heat moving north and becoming very widespread. The Northern Territory record of 47.2c for December will probably be beat this week ( it came close last week). Extreme heat splintering south again from about the 30th.
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Boeing 737 dumps fire retardant on edge of NSW town. Tomorrow I bring final numbers and maps on Australia heatwave which is coming to an end. It wasn't as hot as forecast in NSW today but many homes just couldn't be saved
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37 minutes ago, jonboy said:
Yes but also the night time temp has been low for this time of year in Victoria from 11c overnight to 40c during the day. The high temps are not the only story here
Are you just referring to Melbourne's temperature range on Friday or for the heatwave across Australia this week, or Melbourne's averages for the month? On Friday Melbourne had an official temperature range of 13.7- 43.5. The minimum is actually average compared to 61-90 and the maximum near +19 above. Only the south-east corner of Australia had a coolish morning because a dry front came through yesterday followed by a clear calm night. Adelaide on the other hand had a minimum of 33.6c which is an all-time record. I didn't mention that because I didn't want to clutter things up with too much information.
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Fridays recorded temperatures
49.2c today in the south-east (!!) with a cluster of 47s and 48s near the Vic/South Australia border. Those types of temperatures in far south-east Australia are sensational ( as far as I know nothing in the past has come close to those extremes in the south-east of the country in any summer month). A pre-frontal trough blew in a fickle seabreeze into Adelaide so the main city site missed out on another 45c+ day. In Victoria, the December state record was beaten by up to 12 towns ( 10 automatic weather sites confirmed and 2 manually read sites mostly in the north ) Melbourne 43.5c was second hottest December day behind 1868 ( records since 1855 ). Tonight there are serious bushfires in the Adelaide hills which have taken out an undetermined number of houses.
Saturday and Sunday outlook
The New South Wales Fire Service has issued a Catastrophic Fire Danger for Saturday. The forecast for Sydney is essentially the same as before - 47c for the west and 36c for the city. Cool wind change will be "strong and squally". The 47c is for the western suburbs of Penrith Lakes ( temp records since 1995 ) and Richmond ( records since 1928 ). That is +4c above the December record for those places and 0.7c under the all-time record for Greater Sydney ( set in Richmond in 1939 ).
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Thursday's recorded temperatures:
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A new December record in Australia of 49.9c. That was at Nullarbor near the South Australia coast. Followed by Eucla on Western Australia's coast with 49.8c. Eucla and Nullarbor both have 100+ years of temp records and I reckon those are the highest temps ever recorded so far south. Adelaide 45.3c easily exceeds its 1902 record by +1.2c ( records since 1887 ) and Canberra 39.3c nudges past its 1994 record ( records since 1939 ). Bushfires flaring again near Sydney - a city max of 39.3c and outer west 42.5c.
Friday and Saturday forecast:
Very dangerous weather coming up. Adelaide 46 degrees and windy on Friday . Will be first time any state capital has had two 45+ days in a row. The Victorian state record looks like it will easily flip. Extreme heat in New South Wales very close to the coast on Saturday. A 47c max for western Sydney and 33c max for Sydney city. That much lower number for the city is factoring in a seabreese keeping the record heat back. But it looks like a close run thing.
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Australia has broken its December temperature record with a 49.8c reading at Eucla on the Western Australia coast ( near the South Australia border ). It could still go higher in that district as its only 1:30pm in the west at the moment. Eucla has records since 1910. The South Australia state record has also been broken and the state capital of Adelaide also has a new December record. There is also record for Canberra. A bit later tonight ( my time ) I will plot today's big numbers on a map. Friday is forecast to be very extreme in the south-east.
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Wednesday's recorded temperatures
BoM made a statement today saying Tuesday was the hottest day recorded in Australia for average daily maximum temperature ( provisional ) but saying today was likely hotter. The average tomorrow could be even higher. Adelaide got very close to its December record today with 43.7c and Northern territory just fell short again. Friday and Saturday is the most alarming period as supercharged heat peaks in the populated south-east with the chance of dry lightning.
Thursday and Friday forecast
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Tuesday's recorded temperatures
Australia's maximum was 46.5c at Ceduna in South Australia state. No December state ( or capital city ) record for extreme temperature, but the Northern Territory's 46.0c was just 1.2c short. Peak temperatures still to come.
Wednesday forecast
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Brisbane has just recorded its equal-hottest December day 41.2c ( 11 above average ). Won't be as hot for the rest of the week along the Queensland coast; onshore winds setting in. Things kick off for extreme temperatures elsewhere from Wednesday.
Highest December temperatures in Brisbane ( records since 1887 )
41.2.....2019 16th
41.2.....1981
41.1.....1893
40.3.....1911
40.0.....2001
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Western Sydney forecast ( Penrith Lakes )
Penrith is outer western suburbs 60km west of Sydney CBD. Maximum of 46c on Saturday will be highest December temperature ever recorded in Greater Sydney. Current December record is 44.1c there in 2017. Bushfire danger may be minimised by lack of wind. Sydney CBD will have seabreeses and 36c.
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8 hours ago, Snipper said:
So was there global warming in 1960 we didn’t know about?
The early January heatwave of 1960 hardly made a dent. The same applies when I look at state averages in isolation. The lead-up month of December 1959 was about +0.5c above average ( not significant ). Look at that trend line! In summer, it comes down to longer, more intense and broadscale heatwaves and very long periods of uninterrupted elevated temperature. If the areal averages are not satisfactory BoM has raw data online of hundreds of sites in Australia with easy reference guide to observe percentile ranks for monthly/annual/daily temp extremes.
Also summer average and annual average. I love graphs.
Climate change – trends and extremes
WWW.BOM.GOV.AU-
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7 hours ago, Snipper said:
So was there global warming in 1960 we didn’t know about?
You are referring to the 1960 heatwave ( in early January ) that produced Australia's highest recorded temperature of 50.7c at the outback town of Oodnadatta. That heatwave not only affected the state of South Australia but also New South Wales in which multiple towns recorded their all-time temperature record. However, the vast majority of those temperature records at individual sites fell during the 2013 January heatwave. In other words the spatial extent and peak day of the intense heat of 2013 overwhelmingly exceeded 1960 ( even though a remote outback weather station didn't quite manage to pick up a 50c in 2013 ). If you go to Special Climate Statements via the BoM homepage and scroll down the list you can read a detailed report about 2013. This week the national record is forecast to fall for hottest day for average daily maximum and this will be reflected by dozens of sites breaking their individual record or going close. It shows up right now in forecasts for towns. It is also the sheer frequency of major heat events in recent years which has no historical precedent. It's all publicly accessible via raw data and detailed reports. The media ( and politics ) will certainly go into meltdown if it exceeds 50.7c somewhere this week but that will only bring to the fore how broad and intense the heat is ( especially for mid December ).
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There is media chatter about the prospect of Australia beating its all-time temperature record of 50.7c ( at Oodadatta in South Australia in 1960 ) by the end of the week. That's not showing up at present in the BoM forecasts for towns and outposts with a weather station. Presently, the forecast extremes are 48c in the state of South Australia (at numerous places all over), 48c in Queensland ( in the south-west ), 47c in New South Wales ( numerous in the west ) and 47c in Victoria ( numerous places in the north ). Only the state of Victoria breaks the December record on those numbers. The bigger picture is Australia is likely to break its record for hottest day for any month averaged across the continent on Wed, Thurs or Friday.
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Just enormous. The extreme heatwave rank is rare and it is so extensive. It usually denotes a historic 3-day min/max heat situation with at least one of those days very close to or exceeding a monthly record temperature.
Canberra's forecast maximum for next Saturday ( just released ) is 43c ( +4 above December record ). Oh boy!
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As we get closer to next week's huge heatwave I am going to post some of the latest forecasts for locations as issued by our Bureau of Meteorology. First up Canberra (inland south-east 580m asl):
Canberra's December record is 39.2c in 1994 ( records date back to 1939 ). The all-time record is 42.2c in 1968. The December average is 26c.
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OK this looks absolutlely epic in terms of anything that has ever been recorded before but as of this morning, BoM forecast extreme highs for next Thursday for towns/outposts with a weather station are 47c for the state of South Australia ( Dec record 49.1 in 1972 ), 46c in western New South Wales ( Dec record 48.9 in 1912 ), 46c in south-west Queensland ( Dec record 49.5 in 1972) and 45c in northern Victoria ( Dec record 46.6 in 1976 ). Lower extremes in the west. The 49.5c in Queensland in 1972 is Australia's highest recorded December temperature. No indication at this early stage the extreme heat will reach the populated coast.
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Extreme smoke pollution in Sydney today.
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November - Hobart, Tasmania
A little bit warm and dry. A mean temperature anomaly of +0.4c above 1981-2010 or +0.7c above 1961-1990.
Mean maximum: 20.2 ( +1.3 )
Mean minimum: 9.4 ( -0.5 )
Rainfall: 41mm ( average 53mm )
Rain days ( +1mm ) : 11/from 14
Hot and partly cloudy at first in a fresh northerly breeze. A trough crossed on the morning of the 2nd followed by a cold front and the day was overcast with rain increasing. The first half of the month was then dominated by active Southern Ocean fronts with rain at times and mountain snowfalls - but more moderate conditions around Hobart and the sheltered south-east. The 7th-8th brought a few showers between sunshine with snow settling at 700m asl. A few further showers between the 12th-14th with a dusting of snow to 1000m asl ( mostly at night ). In complete contrast serious heat was developing in Australia's west and moving east, the heat intensified by drought. This heat was dragged south-east ahead of an approaching front giving Hobart it's equal hottest November day. The maximum of 36.8c at midday was followed by a cool, dry wind change. Winds then turned dry westerly in the days ahead, then a few showers from the 26th with cold fronts in a west to south-westerly flow. A thunderstorm with hail on the 29th on an active cold front, and a cold night with a dusting of snow to 900m asl by the morning of the 30th.
Extremes in daily temperature for November ( records since 1882 )
High max: 36.8.....21st ( equal record with 1937 )
Low max: 12.7.....7th and 8th ( record 8.4 in 1885 )
High min: 15.0.....1st ( record 19.9 in 1937 )
Low min: 4.1.....5th ( record 1.7 in 1941 )
Equal record
Australian Weather
in Weather Around The World
Posted
Distances way too big. The serious fires making the news right now are in northern Victoria and southern NSW - about 1500km / 900 miles from Hobart. The mega-fire you refer to is another fire altogether, to the west of Sydney and much further north ( the size quoted in the media includes burnt out area as well as bushland that is still burning ). The length of the fire front though is massive which makes it hard to stop its advance toward Sydney western suburbs. The reason the temperature in Hobart jumped suddenly was because of seabreeze dying out. I made mention of that in my previous post. The Tasmania maximum was actually 41.9c on the east coast. Here is Hobart's temperatures on the 30th showing the north wind taking out the seabreeze here :