Styx
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Australia's major cities had 27 days above 40c this summer which is an all-time record. Most of the extreme heat days were in December. I say 'had' because it appears summer weather is quickly coming to an end. I went through the BoM database to get all the relevant statistics. I chose 40c+ days because they get a bit of attention. Of course, my exercise doesn't capture other days in the very high 30's, it's much rarer to get a 40c+ day in Hobart than Perth for example, and it misses higher temperatures that are always recorded a short distance away from the coastal city weather sites. Nevertheless, it was fun to plot the last 20 years and like most temperature trends just about everywhere, reveals a upward trajectory. I will update this chart at the end of the summer if there's any more to come.
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Fires are about to come to an end with hundreds of millimetres of rain forecast over the next few days down the New South Wales coast. Meanwhile severe tropical cyclone Damien ( cat 4 ) will cross the Western Australia coast on Saturday. This will be the second cyclone to cross the Australia coast this season. Major flooding is likely to be the new story on both sides of the country shortly.
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January - Hobart, Tasmania
A very warm month with a mean anomaly of +1.7c above 1981-2010 or +2.0c above 1961-1990. This was the equal 4th warmest January in 137 years of records.
Mean maximum: 24.3 ( +2.1 )
Mean minimum: 13.8 ( +1.2 )
Rainfall: 34mm ( average 47mm )
Rain days ( +1mm ) : 5/from 5
A high pressure belt extended across Tasmania latitude with dry and calm weather til mid-month. The exception was a front on the 10th bringing 2mm. Maximum temperatures fluctuated between cooler south-east winds with high pressure centered just to the west and warmer northerly wind with high pressure centered just to the east. It was mostly sunny but smoke haze at times. At mid-month a low pressure trough influenced eastern Australia bringing humidity and storms as a high built to Tasmania's west bringing cool onshore winds locally with low cloud and periods of showers. High pressure moved to the south-east on the 21st with a warm and humid airflow followed by an overnight front with 25mm. The rest of the month was dry and becoming progressively warmer. High pressure approaching from the northwest brought mild west to north westerly winds and then very hot arid air from central Australia as high pressure moved to the northeast.
Extremes in daily temperature for January ( records since 1883 ) :
High max: 40.4.....31st ( record 41.8 in 2013 )
Low max: 15.6.....17th ( record 11.1 in 1885 )
High min: 19.8.....10th ( record 23.9 in 2018 )
Low min: 9.0.....17th ( record 3.3 in 1902 )
Historically warm January
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Does anyone think this thing could mutate into a zombie virus? Anyway, quite a few people here in Hobart starting to wear face masks out and about. I feel a bit sorry for Asian-Australians and Asian international students and tourists ( who make up a big part of the Tas economy ) who are getting the panic from some quarters fed back at them in a negative way.
Pilot announces that man on plane may have coronavirus
WWW.ABC.NET.AUPassengers on a Jetstar flight from Melbourne to Hobart were left sitting on a tarmac for more than two hours after a man on the plane became ill, raising concerns he may have coronavirus.-
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The following maps have just hit the BoM website. After the spectacular heat and dryness of December a comparatively wetter and cooler January for Australia.
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No harm to Canberra as of late Saturday afternoon but a new February heat record of 42.7c today. That's three months in a row setting a new monthly heat record ( December 41.1 and January 44.0 ). It's a similar story across inland south-east Australia this summer.
Canberra highest temperatures in February ( records since 1939 )
42.7.....2020 1st
42.2.....1968 1st
41.6.....2017 11th
41.0.....2017 10th
40.3.....2009 8th
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Canberra State of Emergency. Fire Service map projects bushfire entering southern Canberra suburbs during Saturday ( under worse case scenario ). Today's max in Canberra was 41.9c ( 14 above average ) the city's second hottest January day. Hottest was 44.0c on the 4th of this month and third is 41.6c in January 2019 and 2013. Saturday forecast max is 41c. Very hot across south-east Australia today: Melbourne 42.9c ( 17 above average ) and 40.4c in Hobart ( 18 above average). This is Hobart's first summer on record to have two 40c+ days...
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Bushfire approaching Canberra this evening - southern suburbs are on alert. Next four days ( Wed-Sat ) has forecast of 36,39,42,42. The 42c on Saturday would approach the February record ( 42.2 in 1968 ). This new round of heat in south-east Australia will likely provoke other blazes still burning in New South Wales and Victoria.
Live link:
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Destructive thunderstorm in Canberra on Monday. Apparently one of the worst the city has seen
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Damaging thunderstorms around Melbourne this afternoon. This one interrupted a nice lunch
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Lots of rain and storms last week in New South Wales. Apologies for not being more precise when I added the fire zone area to the maps ( it's a rough interpretation off the official maps from the fire services ). Many of the north-east fires in New South Wales have been extinguished but they haven't been causing problems for many weeks. The 'mega-fire' line to the west of Sydney is suppressed and the recent severe fires in the southern corner of NSW appear to be heavily contained. There are no warnings for communities in New South Wales as of today. In Victoria less rain last week. There are still warnings and uncontrolled blazes happening as of today but in remote areas in the north-east.
More rain and storms coming this week mainly for New South Wales. Monthly rainfall averages for January are quite variable - but generally range from about 100-150mm along the coast to about 50mm slightly inland near Canberra.
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What a pretty chart. Top End monsoon - late as it was - feeds into east coast trough. Bushfires will be heavily subdued.
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December - Hobart, Tasmania
Very dry and slightly warm. A mean temperature anomaly of +0.7c above 1981-2010 or +0.9c above 1961-1990. Rainfall for 2019 was 385mm ( 63% ) making it our second driest year in 138 years of records.
Mean maximum: 21.8 ( +1.4 )
Mean minimum: 11.3 ( -0.1 )
Rainfall: 16mm ( average 54mm )
Rain days ( +1mm ) : 5/from 11
Rather cold and blustery at first with sub-Antarctic air at times and a few showers. Snow settling to 800m into the morning of the 3rd and to 600m into the morning of the 4th - very low levels for summer. Snow was heavier and more persistent about the exposed western and central mountains and snow remained on higher ground for days. A further dusting of snow to 1000m into the morning of the 7th. High pressure moved to the east on the 9th with a warm continental airflow then a cooler westerly stream to follow. The period 17th-30th was completely dry. Most of Australia experienced record heat during this time but Tasmania was cooler in a zonal westerly flow and cloudy. A warmer northerly wind on the 20th then a comprehensive cooler change pushing intense heat to northern parts of Australia. A new high built to Tasmania's south-west on the 23rd with a dry but very cool south-east wind. By the 25th high pressure was dominant to the east and northerly winds drew very hot air back across southern Australia. Tasmania's inland became hot and sunny but seabreezes kept Hobart comfortable. A freshening wind on the 30th saw very hot air spread to the coast. Cloud increased in the afternoon ahead of a front and there was a thundery shower in the evening. The 31st was dry.
Extremes in temperature for December ( records since 1882 ) :
High max: 40.8.....30th ( previous record 40.6 in 1897 )
Low max: 15.8.....3rd ( record 10.2 in 1964 )
High min: 15.4.....21st ( record 23.9 in 1920 )
Low min: 5.8.....4th ( record 3.3 in 1906 )
Record
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25 minutes ago, jethro said:
But all he's really saying is people complained when the hazard reduction fires were done and that it caused serious pollution. I've no doubt both are true. He also says that the areas that had had hazard reduction in the last 12 months, did stop the fire spreading. More than 12 months and the bush had grown again, so it didn't work.
What I take from it is that the farmers were right, if they had continued with the annual winter clearance, the problem wouldn't be as bad as it is.
Climate change may make it more likely, but you've also got to deduct the influence of El Nino from this too.
I remain of the opinion that those using the situation as proof positive of AGW/climate change are at best, misguided.
In recent years it hasn't been possible to meet hazard reduction targets because of weather conditions ( unseasonal warmth on top of dryness ). The safe period to burn off during the cooler months is shortening. So even if there was a community consensus that more burn offs should happen despite smoke drifting around for months they wouldn't be able to do it because of safety. There is way too much bush anyway and there are not enough resources or days in the year to cover it all. In the 'old days' there was never comprehensive annual coverage either. Many destructive fires have occurred accidently from hazard reduction burns in some instances from smoldering tree trunks that were alight for weeks. I want to go back to my main point about the weather conditions and the fire index ratings which have not been recorded before. You simply can't dismiss those factors as a side issue as the Fire Commissioner points out strongly. They make a difference between a bushfire and a 50ft high firestorm. Did you know fire embers have travelled twenty kilometres on the wind this summer to create spot fires well ahead of any fire break? How do you stop that. That will happen in bone-dry air and temperatures reaching near 50c within 100 kilometres of the south and east coast. A very concerning element about this we are not in El Nino.
This twitter stuff about lack of burn-offs and arson as the pivotal reason for the massive fires is complete BS ( as has been reported by media with commentary from those in authority positions ). I find the breakdown in truth reporting and what people are convinced to believe in really concerning as a lot of the exaggerated and fake stuff being thrown about has been seeded into traditional and social media by players with malicious intent, a strategy to get people off the main game. Regular decent people then get sucked in by it and take what is said as main truth. I have been duped before on other matters.
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1 hour ago, jethro said:
Lol. Wild horses and all that....after reading the above, I have zero faith that there's even the remotest of hope of having any questions answered, or discussion had, without being bombarded with similar. That said, it's only fair to give folk a chance, I'll be over the moon to be proved wrong......
I've seen quite a lot of reports from Aussie farmers on Twitter about the bush fires. Time and again, they report that in their opinion/experience, this situation has largely been driven by a change in conservation policy. Before the change, undergrowth and bush was cleared during the winter months, thus greatly reducing the amount of fuel available to fan the flames of bush fires. Bush fires being a normal problem in Australia, out of control ones, like the current situation, are not. They seem pretty certain, it is not that bush fires have happened that's the problem, nor that climate change has caused this problem, but that in conserving the landscape for wildlife a 'perfect storm' scenario has been created.
In the press, a lot of people have taken the current Australian situation and used it as proof of climate change. I wonder, is there actually any science to support those claims or are they merely promoting their own voice from the podium of a current disaster?
p.s REALLY NOT, absolutely NOT getting into any discussion about AGW being real or not. Not interested/interesting.
Australia background fire weather conditions ( temperature, drought, soil moisture ) have been 'off the scale' esp. in December! There is no shortage of reliable information from professional organisations which has downplayed the role ramped up fire hazard reduction burns could have played to temper the situation. You can't burn off all the bush every year there's too much of it; it would cover the landscape in smoke for months. Farmers own tiny areas on the fire map, I wouldn't put their over-stated complaints ahead of bushfire professionals such as Shane Fitzsimmons. Watch the video. .
NSW fire boss says people complaining about lack of hazard-reduction burns have short memories
WWW.ABC.NET.AUNSW's top fire brass has weighed in on a national debate about hazard-reduction burns, saying the practice made his organisation public enemy number one last year when Sydney was shrouded in...-
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I am in Melbourne this week. It is 13c and smoky at 10am on Monday with light rain. Light rain is also falling over the fires in the north-east part of the state.. Rain being assisted by moisture streaming down from a developing cyclone in north-west Australia. With a bit of luck moisture stream and cloud will cool the continent to normal levels over the next couple of weeks and trough development in the east will be more active. The next two weeks...no intense heat looms for Australia's south and east at the moment, so that's good news.
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Do you not read what I post Summer Sun?!
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Saturday's temperatures
Hottest day of the summer across New South Wales. 48.9c at Penrith Lakes on the western fringe of Sydney is highest temperature ever recorded in the Sydney Basin. Previous record was 47.7c at Richmond in Sydney's west in 1939. It was 47.4c at Richmond today. Six stations in the broader Sydney area 47.0c+. The city weather station had a seabreeze. Canberra 44.0c breaks January record by +2.4 and all-time record by +1.8 ( records since 1939 ). Biggest concentration of records appear to be in the state's south nearer to the Victoria border. The above colour gradient map is from Meteye based on predicted temperature but 45-48c was more widespread than graphic appears to indicate. This evening, big bushfire flareups happening with strong winds behind the cool change working itself north.
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Saturday 2pm - Dire conditions developing.
42.9c Canberra all-time record
47.8 and 47.1c in western Sydney
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Melbourne on Friday afternoon. Smoke from the Gippsland fires in NE Victoria about 500km/300 miles away....
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Saturday is looking like a disaster - the worst day of them all. Fire everywhere now on top of the extreme forecast. Record Jan temperatures possible across a narrowish area of the inner south-east. That includes Canberra ( forecast max 42c - record 41.6 ) and across the Snowy Mountains.
2 hours ago, keithlucky said:Funny that not a mention on the news ,that the Queensland have arrested 96 arsonists,and 12cases of Arsonists.in NSW.They should all be charged with MURDER!
Almost all the destructive fires burning right now were started by lightning. If a firebug has been arrested for starting a fire, that doesn't imply that fire is running out of control or has destroyed lives or property. But I share your sentiment.
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JUST IN... DECEMBER NATIONAL HEAT RECORD OBLITERATED
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5 hours ago, Crepuscular Ray said:
WTF has the government only just called the military in?
I am no fan of the conservative government but they did react straight away when the state governments requested military/naval assistance yesterday, to evacuate people stranded along the coast and to bring in vital supplies. Those fires were a sudden development.
I am really interested to see if this seemingly never-ending weather tragedy ( 1500+ homes lost, 20 lives, huge ecological toll ) will create a profound social and political shift when it comes to climate change policy. So far no words along those lines from conservative MPs or even Labor opposition - who after losing the recent election have taken a step back from their progressive environmental platform, having lost the vote of their traditional working class base. Similar political dynamic as UK election result.
Anyway this was today's cartoon in my local newspaper ( News Corp too ). Something seems to be stirring beneath the surface...
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10 minutes ago, The PIT said:
Ah so CBS news getting it wrong should have known.
Not really but how bad is the mainstream media when they appear to make stuff up. Seems to me someone in the newsroom was trying to link together a couple of unrelated pieces of information without seeking out the facts. I think your question was pretty interesting. Did you see the photo of thousands of people escaping to the beach in the town of Mallacoota ( north-east Victoria ) as a fire front came past. I just pulled this off the BoM weather site showing the temperature at Mallacoota on Tuesday morning. Not sure where the weather station is in relation to the beach. BoM doesn't validate artificial heat influences in weather readings so day won't end up counting in teh end.
temp/app temp/dew point/humidity/delta-T/wind speed and gust km/hr
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Australian Weather
in Weather Around The World
Posted · Edited by Styx
After the hottest and driest December on record in Australia summer progressed wetter and cooler. Not enough to ease significant long-term rainfall deficiencies. Summer average temperature statistics to be released in a few hours! December was 'off the charts' for warmth but January was cooler and February at first glance appeared to be cooler still.