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Maitland

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Posts posted by Maitland

  1. short answer to that is nil

    sea temperatures will not allow it although if it stays well south then it is quite possible for it to deepen markedly as an ex tropical storm. This happens fairly regularly.

    Appreciate the reply. Interesting to watch the models change as Leslie moves north. Also discovered google earth and the weather element of it. Out of interest what other websites would those here recommend re tracking etc?

    M...

  2. You're right on both counts there Maitland. NHC say that Leslie has been stationary for so long the storm has cooled the waters to 23C in the area, from around 28C. This is the main reason behind the observed weakening as you say. Despite Leslie being weaker than Michael, Leslie would absorb Michael as you say because it is the larger of the two. Dependant on Michaels track speed, the two might still remain seperate.

    Appreciate the reply. I find this all absolutely fascinating. The beauty of living in Scotland is the poor weather we can have at this time of the year (and every other time of the year). It would appear however that I am the only one in a family of five that enjoys bad weather.

    As I continue to learn I hope to be able to post a little bit more.

    M...

  3. I have been following all these threads with a great deal of interest and learning as I go along. Haven't been posting much as I have always thought it best to lurk and learn rather than post when I don't have a clue what I am talking about.

    Anyway on that note it is interesting to see that Hurricane Leslie has been re-classified as a Tropical Storm now. I gather this has happened as she has been practically stationary for some time and has used up all the energy from the water? Once she starts moving she will once again have access to hotter water and will once again intensify, I gather this is the basics of it?

    I also see that TS Leslie and Hurricane Michael are projected to come together over Newfoundland. I assume that the larger of the two (Leslie) will consume Michael and both as one depression will make their way between Scotland and Iceland sometime around the 14th or 15th September?

    M...

  4. Stirlingshire have closed their schools at 12.30pm as have Renfrewshire. Our local primary is 300 yards away so that isn't really an issue but my eldest is at Secondary 10 miles away and the Perthshire schools are still shown open all day. She has been told to get the bus back at 1.05pm if the schools are to be kept open until 4pm.

    Looking at the weather charts we are to expect gusts in excess of 70mph with gusts 80 + just south of here. We still have a couple of inches of compacted snow outside that has now iced over and I am hoping that these winds aren't in conjunction with heavy snow. We are forecast some snow this evening but it looks as though the winds may bring rain later on Thursday afternoon.

    We are not unused to storms here in Scotland but this certainly has the potential to cause some damage and living on the edge of some woods here I am sure we will have some significant tree damage. I may not have to buy anymore wood for the stove if things turn out as the weather man predicts !!

    M...

  5. Had a break in the weather about an hour ago with even a glimpse of some blue sky. Sky has darkened again and the winds have picked up a little but I would think the worst of it is over. Highest gust at Strathallan was 52mph. Still raining which should add a lot more to the already full rivers locally. Power outages in Ayrshire and Dumfries but expected to be back on again by 10pm.

    This has certainly been nothing special for this part of Scotland and as somebody said it got the coverage due to the fact that a named hurricane was its origins. I am sure we will have far worse over the next few months.

    I think the main cause of concern here now will be the rain as it is still forecast overnight and into tomorrow. Looking forward to the snow and usual power outages here through the winter but with a new wood burner going in next week I can watch the snow in relative comfort from the window and with a Landy in the drive can at least get to the local shops !!

    As you can say I am a new member but can I just say that this has been a very informative site and I have enjoyed reading all the posts with regards to this weather event and hopefully I will be staying around and learning more.

  6. Hi Maitland, you've just tempted me, a keen kayaker, to go on the school run early, to have a look at the Allan in town.

    Quite windy here but nothing dramatic so far.

    Anyone noticed the tightning of the isobars on the XCweather pressure map just SW of the low centre, is that the main event for us?

    A keen kayaker !!! I remember watching the Knaik in spate last year after heavy rain and was amazed at the power of the water and then I heard some voices up river and watched with utter amazement as four blokes were popping kayaks into the water !!!

    As you you said nothing dramatic at the minute, I haven't even seen a branch of any of the trees yet. After the storm in May there was utter carnage in the back garden here and at the minute I don't have any leaves of the trees to talk about.

  7. Wind still seems to be picking up here a little. The house is surrounded by a wood with the tops of the trees giving a merry dance. No equipment to measure wind and pressure other than one of my daughters ipods which shows winds in Dunblane (7 miles south) at 16 mph with pressure at 981mb and temperature at 57. I am now hoping Santa may bring me a weather station for my Christmas smiliz34.gif

    I am being told that the worst of the wind will occur between 3pm and 9pm. Still pouring with rain with the River Knaik and Allan Water about to merge into one large river. The rivers are seperated at one point by a 10 foot bank with the water very close to the top now. This can happen regularly but I have yet to see both merge, maybe today is the day.

  8. Weather has changed dramatically in the last 40 minutes. Rivers are now in spate with heavy rain. Winds have increased considerably but no where near the worst I have seen here by a long way. I am led to believe though that they will increase further as the afternoon and evening progresses. Some leaves off the trees but no further debris such as branches etc.

  9. One of the things that could be involved with a shortwave feature is the lowering of pressure, sometimes lower than the main storm itself in this case katia, heavy rain and stronger than forecast winds

    Thank you for the reply. Just reading up on shortwave and longwaves now. Things are quite quiet out there at the minute. Strathallan showing windspeed 14mph with gust of 31mph, pressure 991 and rising. Forecasters telling me to expect gusts between 50 and 70mph with 80 + in exposed areas. It will be interesting tomorrow to see just how accurate the forecasts have been,

  10. With such an unstable airmass then thunderstorms could be embedded and most likely near the Northwest quadrant of the Low. Tornados are also possible.

    A secondary low has been shown on NMM to form, its only currently on one model but its a very feasable suggestion. The area of interest shows a possible area for a shortwave to be forming but need a few more sat pics to really see for sure.

    Apologies if this has been asked before but what significance, if any, would a shortwave make to the current weather pattern? New to all this and I find it fascinating.

  11. Very wet here in Perthshire, constant rain all day. A lot of surface water with the ground sodden. Watching this weather system with a great deal of interest. A great deal of damage here with power outages for a whole day with the winds in May that stranded me in Edinburgh (I'm Glaswegian so it came as a bit of a shock !!). I am very much a novice at this but the weather charts for May don't look as bad as the weather charts for tomorrow.

    Hope all those effected tomorrow stay safe and we don't see too much damage to property and any loss of life.

    Maitland

  12. Been raining here most of the day in Perthshire after yesterdays "heat". Keeping a close eye on this one as the eldest has a reasonably long journey to school through the back roads with forestry either side. I see the local offroading experience at a local hotel had some problems after a Landy tried to negotiate a swollen burn resulting in the emergency services having to rescue 7 members of the public !!!

    Maitland

  13. Welcome to the forum Maitlandlaugh.png

    Shadow I am grateful for the welcome.

    Maitland

    Hi Maitland,

    Yep, I had a bit of a windy time back in May too and lost a few of my established plants! (Fife) Hope to see you over in the regional Scottish thread. A good bunch of folks on there!

    Hi Blitzen. I will get myself across to the regional thread. Just working my way through the forum and having a wee look.

    Maitland

  14. Can I firstly thank everybody for a very informative forum. I have an interest in our weather and have been fascinated by the first appearance of Katia and the storms approach towards Scotland. I am still trying to learn about some of the technical jargon and hope to hang about some more to learn.

    I am in Braco (Just outside of Dunblane) in Perthshire and would appear to be in the firing line of this storm. We have had severe winters here for the last three years and only a few months ago had gusts into the 80's and 90's that caused further damage to a once lovely garden but alas the vast majority of the established trees and plants have taken a hammering lately and it would appear that they may just take some further damage Sunday into Monday.

    Once again I am grateful for some of the very informative posts.

    Maitland

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