Earth Wind and Snow
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17 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:
@Earth Wind and Snow -similarly go back to mid Jan 1991 on Meteociel Archive and see how it developed into the holy grail by 8th Feb 1991. Or am I clutching at straws here?
Yes Paul that is another example. Maybe not clutching at so many straws based on IF's latest update. I also saw a post from the respected Roger J Smith the other day stating that next bout of cold would come from the east or north-east.
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09 December 2009 - very mild south-westerlies covering British Isles
10 December 2009 - wave of high pressure pushes up from the Azores
Leading to this which was the beginning of a long cold spell
Many more examples in the archives - not a million miles away from the current thinking of JMA, GEM and ECM
JMA Chart Day 6
GEM Chart Day 6
ECM Chart Day 7
ECM Chart Day 10
A lot of water to flow under the bridge but worth keeping an eye on that build of pressure from the south-west and whether it can join with pressure to our north-east to build a new cold block. Anomoly charts are also hinting at something similar to the ECM, JMA and GEM evolutions - we may have hit on our next path to cold - maybe
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15 minutes ago, IDO said:
Yes what happens with the pressure rise over the UK, can it cut through the Euro trough and connect with the heights to the east? No trend from the GEFS yet, three clusters, about 33% supporting the ECM effort and 50% going with the GFS op (UK HP) and the rest a mix and match between the two.
Whether this is a trend or ECM over amplifying only time will tell, however it is certainly an option at the moment and we will hopefully see it grow. I for one do not believe that the UK high will verify as per the GFS op and control in FI. Those waves of energy from the Azores look ripe to barrel through the Euro trough and GEM also goes this way:
Yes GEM has shown this for last three runs. now ECM and also JMA are hinting at this evolution also - hopefully this trend will grow stronger over coming days
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Surprised at the number of amplified ens from the GFS 12z this could very well be an over reaction to a strengthening MJO signal
although the signal is looking a lot more robust with a strong WWB near the date line.
The lower strat vortex looks to become elongated and weaker over the coming days therefore a strong MJO signal over the coming days
may well be the trigger that is needed. Certainly mid February to mid March given the right synoptics could produce a very newsworthy
freeze for the UK so time is still on our side but will the weather play ball.
Yes some nice GEFS ensembles tonight - a good portion showing heights to our north with wintry synoptics for British Isles in the later ranges - hopefully they are on to something - I have not seen anything from Ian F in a while but last I heard he suggested a potentially blocked and colder spell later in February - maybe GEFS now picking up on this signal - the operationals may not show anything of note at the moment but hopefully a few days from now, we will be looking at much more promising charts in the 7-10 day range - it would be nice to see one very cold wintry spell before winter is out as opposed to the rather uninspiring efforts to date in Dec and Jan - maybe third time lucky....
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Met Eireann have upgraded the Snow / Ice Weather Warning to amber for most parts and accumulations of 4-8 cms's - highest on high ground. A status Yellow warning in place for Leinster and east Munster for up to 4 cm's again highest totals on high ground - valid from early hours Tuesday to Wednesday morning.
Hopefully everyone looking for snow gets their wish over the next 36 hours - milder and stormy on Wednesday and then turning colder again for rest of the week with showers turning to sleet / snow again by Friday
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the 18z not far off giving us an easterly in FI - doesn't make it this run but another option on the table longer term if the high to our north-west dos not sink as fast as the GFS shows
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ust a question for some of the more knowledgeable on here - I noticed on another site that the waters in the atlantic stretching from the gulf stream towards Ireland and UK are much colder than normal - do the models factor this in or will this have any effect on our weather? would these colder waters be of help if a cold spell develops for lowland snow or would this actually be a driver?
Hi
Can you post a link to this please? As far as I was aware, our local sst's were at a warmer anomaly by a couple of degrees...
Sorry can't post a link - I checked and it is on Exacta's fb weather page with a map showing much colder than normal sea temperatures currently stretching from gulf to Ireland / UK. I know I know, James Madden is a sensationalist at the best of times but leaving that aside, assuming this information is correct I was wondering how this might effect the models take on things
Speaking of the models, there seems to be an upgrade tonight for cold prospects with ECM, JMA, NAVGEM and to a lesser extent GFS all showing a cold shot for Christmas Eve & Day, brief mild spell then a northerly setting in soon after Crimbo - I agree with other posters that the models such as ECM that delay the onset of cold are showing a better profile for extending the cold
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just a question for some of the more knowledgeable on here - I noticed on another site that the waters in the atlantic stretching from the gulf stream towards Ireland and UK are much colder than normal - do the models factor this in or will this have any effect on our weather? would these colder waters be of help if a cold spell develops for lowland snow or would this actually be a driver?
I see Tamara, John Holmes and others have given excellent detailed analysis on how things may pan out, however I do not see these much colder than normal sea temperatures stretching from the gulf stream being mentioned as a factor?
thanks in advance
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Looks like the Christmas to New Year period could be interesting based on current model outputs - winds mostly from the north would obviously favour you guys living in northern and north-western areas should charts verify - however we cannot rule out a few disturbances coming down in the flow giving potentially snow chances on a wider scale. Personally I feel that this change in pattern which looks like taking place will come too soon for Christmas, as often in these cases, shortwaves delay the onset of the coldest uppers by a day or two, than earlier modeled - I would plump that it turns cooler by Christmas with nice crisp days and frosty nights with some wintry showers giving a chance of snow to higher areas further north but possibly also to a few lucky ones at lower levels - 27th or 28th onwards would be my guess for real cold to plunge south bringing a greater risk of snow to more low lying areas over a wider area. again assuming this pattern change occurs, the next thing to look out for is how long will it last - will it be a 3-4 day toppler or a James Madden inspired 2 month snowfest - or something in between - lets go along for the ride and see where this takes us........ usual caveats apply
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Less severe? Looks more like a different world compared to what we have endured so far this winter.
There's hardly a breadth of wind to be seen and not much in the way of precipitation it would seem on those two charts albeit it a tad chilly.
UKMO showing the start of next week to be less severe than of late
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Today was probably the most severe storm I have ever experienced. Probably even worse than the Christmas Eve storm of 1997 which was something to behold. Total carnage all around this area today with roofs totally blown off buildings, trees uprooted, power cuts and a few vehicles, mostly lorries overturned. At one stage the 4 storey building I was in for a while this afternoon, was literally swaying and people were genuinely panicking that it was going to collapse. Scary stuff and shows how mother nature in all her ferocity is something not to mess with. These severe storms along with all the flooding of the past 2 months will surely mean that this winter will go down as a record breaker when the stats are compiled. On a par with the severe winters of 1946/47 and 1962/63 but for very different reasons of course.
In addition, today's storm came after a particularly cold day yesterday where many places saw falling, and in some cases lying snow. Incidentally it's interesting looking at Met Eireann's latest weather reports for the past few hours that Cork (apart from Knock Airport which is on high ground) has been experiencing snow showers while the showers in the rest of the country much further north are reporting rain. Quite unusual.
I think this winter still has a bit to run yet with another storm due Friday which could bring more damaging winds, flooding to the south and possibly snow to the north. Also some tentative signs looking at some recent model output that late Feb / early March may see things settle down somewhat, however I wouldn't bet against it also turning progressively colder with perhaps a sting in winters tail and a cold start to Spring possibly in the offing which would carry the risk of frost & snow - all a long way off but worth watching the models over next few days or more to see if this becomes an increasing possibility.
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GFS not following ECM's idea thus far of higher pressure building to our north with lows on a more southerly track
ECM at 240
GFS at 240
Big differences - will be interesting to see if ECM continues its trend tomorrow or whether it reverts to something akin to GFS output
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maybe we shouldn't write off February just yetGood grief....after waiting all winter for Greenland height rises to show on the NWP, we get there. Groundwork laid around 174 hours with better heights towards the Arctic.
From hereon in we may just get to see some stratospheric effects filtering down into the modelling. Fingers crossed.
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Why can't we get this kind of reloading pattern when it comes to cold rather than just one or two days and that is when we get any cold at all? Simply not fair.
In fairness in recent years, the weather seems to get stuck in a rut for long periods of time for whatever reason - mid December 2009 to mid January 2010 - cold and snowy, summer and autumn 2010 - wet, late november 2010 to late January 2011 - very cold (snowy in earlier period), summer 2011 - wet, autumn 2011 mild, winter 2011-2012 mostly mild and wet, summer 2012 - wet, late Feb to early April 2013 - cold wih snowfalls, summer 2013 - warm and often dry, autumn 2013 - wet and now winter 2013/2014 stormy & wet.
I would wager a bet that when the pattern changes to whatever that will be - it will lock in for a while.
Ine the meantime I hope CC is right and we start to see some better charts showing up in the near future for a late winter / early spring cold spell with some snow - if not some spring warmth would be nice
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To be fair I genuinely believe this is a realistic view of where things stand right now. Alaskan ridges and how they can result in a split vortex down the line is all very well but the overriding fact of the matter is the models have consistently been showing for a considerable period of time now a rapid deterioration in weather conditions to take hold from this coming Friday. So it's certainly not inconceivable to believe we won't see upgrades in the days ahead with regards to the intensity of these upcoming lows similar to that of Dec.
Its also not inconceivable to believe we wont see upgrades regarding alaskan ridges and a split vortex
Would i be surprised if February is as mild and stormy as Jan and Feb - No
Would I be surprised if we see a very cold spell before February is over - No
That's because our weather is full of surprises
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All the signals point to wet and mildish for first two weeks of February , that means two weeks of winter left . Of course things can change but I would wage the pattern is set now .
A lot of 'winter is over' posts in here today on 28th January
1994 - after a very uninspiring winter - this was the chart for 31st January with a raging vortex to our north-west, high pressure to our south and the pattern 'seemingly set'
14th February 1994 - heavy snowfalls spreading across the UK and Ireland from the east - here is south-east Ireland we had snow showers and a light covering on the 14th Feb and then heavy prolonged snowfall leaving 7 inches of snow cover on the 15th
In mid February 2005 after a failed easterly attempt (like we see this week) - people on these forums again proclaimed winter was over
22nd February 2005 - an easterly brought a lot of falling snow for the best part of 2 weeks (although the disappointing uppers meant it often thawed during daytime hours)
The point is nobody can predict what the weather will be like on the 10th February, the 17th of February the 25th of February or anytime in March for that matter
The weather is all about timing and every day the models pick up new information and changes in the atmosphere that make the previous days runs redundant. An arctic high nosing down from the north, a more amplified upstream pattern, a change in jet direction etc. can appear out of nowhere at short notice and change everything for better or for worse. SSW or not the charts will look different in 7,10,14 days time than what they currently project
Here's tonight's 10'day ECM
Come the day, the 7th of Feb chart will not look like that - we could be under the influence of a bartlett a Greenland high - or that Russian high might be further west and the jet could be on a more southern track sending them lows sliding under the block - no one knows.
I am not sure if we got a SSW back in 1994 or 2005, but in recent years sometimes I feel that because the strat does not appear to show what we want then people automatically accept that we cannot have cold - yes SSW events can lead us to cold however I am sure there have been many cold spells in winters without SSW events
Yes this winter so far has been disappointing but writing off February and March on 28th January is rather premature to say the least.
Funnily enough I have seen more falling snow this winter (a few showers) than I saw up to the 28th January 2013 - by the end of March I had seen enough to last several winters
If we are to have a cold spell before Spring arrives, I don't expect the models to suddenly flip overnight, however give it a few days, maybe a week, maybe more and we could be looking at very different charts to what are being modeled now - be it cold and snowy, record warmth or mild and dry
Enjoy the ride
EWS
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If all models only went out to + 144 and the majority were showing something like this - we would all be salivating at the mouth.
Unfortunately this chart is + 24 and its all expected to go pear shaped soon after with the atlantic blasting through and the cold high to the north-east sinking south-east wards. However it is a close call and may still bring something wintry to north-eastern spots before / during the breakdown.
The good thing is that we get this close to a bitter easterly despite the raging vortex and unfavorable back ground signals. Sometimes we need two or three attempts before the cold wins the day. Last week the cold reached the north sea - this week the cold will make further inroads to our islands.
If the vortex continues to weaken and we get another attempt, I believe we have a much better chance of the cold becoming established - call it third time lucky. These type of battles often become a repeating pattern once established so I would not be surprised to see another attempt in the next 1-2 weeks.
Still a long way to go in this winter - hopefully by the weekend the models will be picking up the next attempted mild v cold battle and we can all get upon the next roller coaster ride.
Keep the faith coldie friends
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GEFS ensembles up to + 168 and the vast majority of members are sliders in the 120-144 hour range including the control run - likely to be some stella runs in there when fully updated
A lot of the runs look similar to UKMO at 120 also
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ECM looks a little like the Met update
Turning colder midweek with easterly
then a breakdown from the west - still cold with sleet / snow likely in places especially the north and high ground
temperatures returning to average later
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ECM ens, err.... the massive raging mean canadian vortex over Greenland/Canada of yesterdays runs has vanished. A much more meridinal pattern is favoured going into week 2 now. Low heights look like continuing to drop south east through the UK much like the operational.
Not bad really.
850s are solid too
Earlier on, we have the -8 isotherm touching the east coast at day 7
Plenty of interest I think in the next few weeks.
A huge change in the mean charts towards cold persisting and undercutting lows on ECM - considering there is probably a cluster of milder members those charts are as cold as we could hope with plenty of precipitation about - if we could just pull the pattern a little further west, most would be at risk of snow over next 10 days
Exciting times
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was good 2013, Arctic high may have failed but '07 was very snowy for me 8th and 9th
Sorry 2014 - still trying to get my head around the change of year - amended now
Yes some places managed some snow in 2007 but the earlier predicted freeze by the models leading up to that event failed to materialize
I think Scotland also managed some snow from he 2001 event but again the widespread severe spell failed to land
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We need to be cautious with regard to the artic high - when it lands in our favour ala 1985 (as Steve M posted) and 1987 we hit the bulls eye
There are other times when it has failed to land:
For example 2001 (The Kettley v Met Office Saga pre Net Weather days)
and 2007 which lead to a lot of tears on these forums as for several runs the models expected another 1987 (only for Nicks dreaded shortwaves to scupper us)
Hopefully we can hit the bulls eye in 2014 - I think we deserve it after this stormy / washout of a winter so far
Going to be very interesting watching all this pan out over the next number of days
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Latest +120 fax - so near and yet so far with regard to that scandi high
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Put it this way, December 2010 was a very cold and snowy month followed by two winter months of mild dross and we all loved that winter, so personally I would take a cold month with snowy spells to end winter (even half as good as December 2010 would do me). Things do seem to be supporting a pattern change in around 10 days time if the ECM/GFS are to believed.
If I could have 1 week or even 2-3 days of falling and lying snow this winter, I would look back on it with much fondness. Winter 1990/91 would be long forgotten were it not for that 7-10 day period in mid February which brought many places some decent falls of snow - apart from that one mid Feb cold spell - that winter was on the most part fairly naff (apart from the short lived localised snowfall in English midlands in Dec)
Looking ahead I would love to see the scandi high exert more influence next week but I fear it is a real long shot. We may have to wait until the very end of Jan or early Feb going on current output, however there is always the danger those charts will totally downgrade closer to the time. Saying that, we are in a much better position now than at anytime this winter and if charts like this come to fruition - just like in winter 1990/91, anything is possible
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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Hi Nick
I don't think they have updated yet. ..they look like last night's....some tasty looking ensembles tonight tying in with Ian Fergusons post
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