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Earth Wind and Snow

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  1. Earth Wind and Snow
    It feels colder out there today than it did in our recent 'cold' spell Gale force westerly wind and heavy hail shower at present in temp of + 4.0 degrees Nice to hear it is snowing in locations further north - high ground in some spots could get a covering before the next batch of rain spreads in later tonight / tomorrow EWS
  2. Earth Wind and Snow
    Yeah if the run continued for another few frames it would probably show a renewed northerly - be different again on next run but good signs now for another cold push in Feb EWS
  3. Earth Wind and Snow
    Rather strange ending to this GFS run but the trends are still good for blocking in early Feb
  4. Earth Wind and Snow
    Considering that is dated 7th Jan before the first cold spell even got going, then the RJS forecast has been incredibly accurate so far. With models now beginning to pick up the scent of another cold spell in early February then it looks like Roger could be bang on the money Very impressed - lets see if early Feb can indeed product the goods as per his LRF EWS
  5. Earth Wind and Snow
    Agree with that TEITS - another example is Feb 1986 - this was a mostly dry but bitter month although we did receive some light snowfalls - I have kept old weather forecasts from this period and the last week of Feb each day the max temps forecast in Ireland was - 1.0 to + 1.0 degrees....even on the 28th Feb despite mostly sunny skies due to the bitter east wind - any lying snow in the last week of that feb was melting nowhere fast On the other hand Feb 2005 the upper temps were not as cold and early morning snow accumaltions here were melted by noon each day Sorry for off topic mods Lets hope GP and the EC32 dayer are correct and we can look forward to fun and games as we go through Feb EWS
  6. Earth Wind and Snow
    light snow flurries falling here this morning..............hopefully we all get a good fall of snow over the next few days EWS
  7. Earth Wind and Snow
    I hope you are right JS - I feel there is the potential for disruptive snowfalls, however there is equally a good chance that many of us will see sleet and rain like yesterday and today - still a little marginal I feel although sometimes this can produce big totals once you are on the right side of marginality - lets see what the experts say EWS
  8. Earth Wind and Snow
    Hi JS - Upper temps in southern parts are too high at present..............frost on ground will count for nothing I am afraid - colder uppers though for Sunday and monday so hopefully you will see some snow by then although will be still marginal in places especially near coasts EWS
  9. Earth Wind and Snow
    I think Met Eireann are right to hold off on mentioning snow until they are sure. I often find that while they will mention a 'risk of snow' on their website, they do not mention the word 'snow' on TV unless they expect something significant. A presenter just needs to mention that there is 'a chance of rain turning to wet snow for 3 minutes' on TV and before you know it, the public many of whom only half listens to the forecast and do not understand much of the graphics anyway, hears the mention of 'snow' and start exclaiming to all that will listen that 'they are giving snow tomorrow'. When the inevitable rain falls from the sky the next day, Met Eireann are bashed as not having a clue. As for the weather itself, I feel we are unluckily once again just on the westward edge for Fridays event although some models are correcting the snow line further westwards this evening so it would not take much to produce some snow for eastern parts of Ireland later Friday and possibly in to Saturday - we need to see the block being a little stronger again on tomorrow mornings models with the fronts a little further west - if this happens some eastern areas could see some of the while stuff. If not there are further possibilities for Sunday and beyond if ECM for example is on the money, however again the details will change before then maybe for the worse but hopefully this time for the better After last winters let down - we here on this Isle deserve a good dumping..............here's hoping we all get what we want over the next few weeks EWS
  10. Earth Wind and Snow
    Yes a friend of mine came back from Australia for Christmas for 3 weeks and started his journey back to Oz this morning - he was commenting to me last night that he has hardly seen the sun shine in the three weeks he has been home - shockingly mild, cloudy drizzly mush since he arrived without even a slight frost in sight.............he is now heading back to a heatwave and blue skies lucky sod EWS
  11. Earth Wind and Snow
    UK Met going for a messy picture next week with rain / snow as atlantic fronts try to make inroads - Ireland would probably be on the milder side of these fronts to begin - however if GFS is on the money, these fronts would overtime tend to be squeezed further and further south as the block to our north intensifies with the very cold air flooding the country bringing snowfall for some. On the other hand if ECM Operational is right we may have to wait another few weeks for something noteworthy. Going to be fascinating watching all this unfold EWS
  12. Earth Wind and Snow
    did anyone see the RTE Farming Forecast for the week ahead? are they playing up the chances of a cold easterly by next weekend as per ECM output? ah just seen it on RTE iPlayer - that ties in with the ECM model
  13. Earth Wind and Snow
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png 'Beyond 2 days the ECMWF is the normally preferred model'.As you say ECM is used 'beyond 2 days' and this is why I have often seen MET Eireanns longer range forecasts 'flip' as per each ECM run. I accept your point that they use their own model for up to 48 hours and that they analyse other models - from experience and I am an avid weather follower I have seen them with egg on their faces many times by forecasting what ECM models show even when ECM is out of kilter with other models 18z by the way is backing UKMO http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png EWS
  14. Earth Wind and Snow
    The Irish Met use ECM as their forecasting tool - they basically show the latest ECM operational graphics - in the run up to 2010 cold spell ECM were steadfast behind the upcoming cold and the Irish Met's forecasts matched this prediction - then a few days before that spell commenced the ECM threw a wobbler and showed milder conditions pushing through as they projected a ridge to collapse - low and behold the next day the forecast on Met Eireann was for mild conditions to become established rather than the cold they had been predicting for several days - the next run the ECM flipped back and within a few hours the Met Eireann website updated to confirm that the cold spell was now coming after all - on the flip side a similar thing happened in January this year when for several runs ECM were showing a north-easterly airflow becoming established (against other models) and Met Eireann stated that a very cold snowy spell was on the way that weekend - ECM came in to line with the other models the next day and the forecasts were updated to reflect same. I therefore always look on sites such as Net Weather for a more balanced view on things as I feel Met Eireann have all their eggs in one basket so to speak. The current situation has no bearing on what went before but if I was a betting man and based on NOAA discussions, CPC charts etc. I would expect ECM to come in to line tomorrow with UKMO etc. However the weather has a habit of making fools of us all so we wait and see what the 18z and tomorrows runs bring.............. EWS
  15. Earth Wind and Snow
    Some intersting charts starting to show their hand now Just wondering - I know Scotland did well in early March 2006 with sustained snowfall / snowcover via a northerly. Is there many other instances of sustained snowcover for a day / several days in March for more southern parts. I have often seen snow fall here in March but it usually melts by noon or so and I cannot remember an event that had snow cover lasting all day EWS
  16. Earth Wind and Snow
    We in Ireland seem to have been just stuck on the edge of the more exciting synoptics for several months now. Late September 2011 - Nice late Autmn warmth over much of Britain - Ireland is stuck in the murky, rainy conditions further west http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2011/brack/bracka20110929.gif Mid October 2011 - Record breaking heatwave in much of England with warm sunshine and packed beaches - cloudy and rainy over Ireland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2011/brack/bracka20111015.gif Late November 2011 - Mild and dry weather for much of Britain - damp, drizzly weather for Ireland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2011/brack/bracka20111121.gif Mid January 2012 - Cold, calm, clear and frosty in U.K. - Mild, damp, drizzly and cloudy in Ireland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2012/brack/bracka20120117.gif Early February 2012 - Bitterly Cold with snow incoming for much of England / Wales - for Ireland after a two day flirtation with colder air it is back to milder weather with south-westerly winds and mostly cloudy / rainy http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2012/brack/bracka20120204.gif Sometimes that is just the way it goes. When we missed out on that heatwave in October I worried that it could be deja vu come winter and my fears have so far been realised. They have had snow as far south as Majorca wheren we can barely muster a light frost. Looking at outputs from the models there does not seem to be anything better in the pipeline unless something drastically changes. Our old friend the azores high has a lot to answer for this winter. The old U2 song 'Stuck in a Moment You Can't Get Out Of' springs to mind EWS
  17. Earth Wind and Snow
    The BBC were showing this turning to snow if it reaches england because the colder air off the continent is digging in over there. We would need to see that colder air expanding further westwards over Ireland to see any fronts moving in from the west to fall as snow here. Do not rule this out - too late to happen in next few days but as we go through next week the cold could become more extensive over Ireland and if this happens any fronts that approach could threaten us with snow. In fact looking at the further outlook for February the UK Met are expecting an easterly flow to dominate the first 2-3 weeks but state that milder air may try to push in to the north and west at times - this to me highlights the risk of battleground snow occuring possibly right over Ireland - Jan '82, Feb '78 anyone? EWS
  18. Earth Wind and Snow
    You could be very much on the right track Nick - 1956 springs to mind http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1956/Rrea00119560112.gif However it could also be that the UK MET foresee a 'Kettley High' type scenario playing out. High pressure building to our north-east that may or may not influence our weather. Could be a near miss like in 2001 - bitter cold to the north-east but we stay on the mild side http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120010201.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2001/Rrea00120010204.gif Or 2007 - close but no cigar - this one gave a lot of us nightmares in the lead up to that spell as some of the models were plunging us in to a major freeze before a late backtrack http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070221.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2007/Rrea00120070223.gif Or Perhaps they see a chance of a direct hit like the famous 1987 spell http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870110.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1987/Rrea00119870112.gif Either way I expect some tasty charts to start appearing over the next few days - we just have to hope that our luck is in and we hit the jackpot ECM even at T120 has all sorts of possibilities so anything can happen especially the way the charts have been flipping over the last two weeks http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif EWS
  19. Earth Wind and Snow
    Had to move away from the forecasting model thread for a while as the bickering over there is getting tiresome at this stage Cold / possible snow prospects for Ireland as per the big three models as I see it for next week ECM has watered down their cold blast for next weekend but I would expect still to see some snow more especially in Northern parts http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif however by next weekend lighter winds with less shower activity but with likelihood of plenty of frosts http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif UKMO seems to be following a similar pattern http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif so again northern parts at risk of snow if uppers are cold enough - we cannot see where we would go from here and whether cold / snow risk would dig further south GFS only slowly coming in to line but offers something wintry later in the period http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png again northern and probably western parts most at risk but a short lived affair as per the 6z output If charts get upgraded again similar to yesterdays ECM then potential for snow could become more widespread - at least now all three models are showing cold / snow potential from late next week onwards - if that shortwave exiting USA on those charts at T144 is slower than forecast expect upgrades and likewise if it exits at faster rate expect something more similar to GFS which takes longer to bring in a cold snap Could go either way and something to watch closely over the next few days and a lot better potential than we have seen all winter - lets hope this continues EWS
  20. Earth Wind and Snow
    The Irish Met in their 7pm forecast said it will turn milder next Tuesday and Wednesday and then 'high likelihood of turning much colder from Thursday onwards with cold north-west winds veering to a bitterly cold north-east flow for next weekend. Usually they only forecast 4-5 days ahead so for them to put their neck on the line this early indicates they are very confident probably beacuse of the ECM ensembles today all steadfast behind the operational. I hadn't looked at the 12z ECM at that stage and then looked to see the cold has been even upgraded from the 0z run plus support from other models of similar pattern Judging by some of the comments on here you would think these charts are showing a mild south-westerly http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif The GFS is on its own tonight just like it was last weekend when it was showing screaming easterlies for this weekend It could still be right but the chances are reducing drastically - thats 7 ECM runs in a row showing the same pattern with ensemble and other model support EWS
  21. Earth Wind and Snow
    This makes me happier that it is likely GFS has this wrong - however until GFS starts showing this in it's charts we have to be wary of the ECM outcome especially as UKMO seems a bit of a half way house EWS
  22. Earth Wind and Snow
    ECM has cold air starting to flood south as early as T144 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif I would not call this reliable timeframe but it is getting close - if ECM stil lshows this at T96 or even better T72 we could start to get excited Yes ECM and GFS can show very different outcomes even at T72 - not often but it happens - then one model finally cottons on and moves in to line or sometimes a half way house is the final outcome hope this explains EWS
  23. Earth Wind and Snow
    I can understand your frustration however if you stand back and analyze things - the cold spell is starting today but nobody notices - based on ECM next 3-4 days cold and frosty for many places, www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif then the following 2-3 days milder as fronts cross us http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif followed by 2-3 days of much colder conditions with snow http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif- if the charts went out further than 10 days with the projected set up there is the liklihood of further cold and snowy weather as that pattern won't just change overnight The mild blip in the middle is required to get the favoured synoptices in palce for later EWS
  24. Earth Wind and Snow
    Yes blast I thought that too loking at the charts that the similarity with late Jan 1986 is very similar - this was followed by a very cold February which backs up GP's thoughts EWS
  25. Earth Wind and Snow
    I felt yesterday that there were still upgrades possible in the short term which could have implications for cold prospects further down the line and todays models have certainly upgraded the potential for a cold and possibly snowy spell - not allowing for the fact that things will be already turning colder from tomorrow with frost in places although Ireland will be on the western edge of this Todays UKMO at T120 is a big upgrade on yesterdays T144 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif Todays GFS T144 is much better than anything it produced yesterday and so close to something classic http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png Todays ECM T216 is a big upgrade on yesterdays T240 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif So short term upgrades and long term upgrades today Roll on the 12z runs and hopefully further progress towards a cold evolution EWS
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