Earth Wind and Snow

I still think that this chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif could still lead to something more interesting down the line than is currently shown and T120 is still FI. The Meto update today for next week is in their own words 'uncertain' There could be more twists and turns to come before we can write off a colder outlook for next week 12z up next - the rolelr coaster continues EWS

This morning the main 3 models were all showing a different outcome at T120-144 This evening UKMO and GFS have a diffeent outcome at 120 again ECM will be interesting this evening to see if it backs up either of the above models or goes its own way again FI was T96 this morning and will probaby still be T96 this evening so probably another day or so before the weekend / early next week is resolved This type of uncertainty normally only occurs in the build up to a cold spell - all eyes down for ECM then EWS

Hi Mountain Shadow, Yes it has been my hunch that the last 7-10 days of January will turn much colder and I expect Based on background signals that February will be the coldest month of the meteorlogical winter EWS

A belated Happy New Year to All Some people such as GP and BFTP on NW Model Forecasting Discussion Forum are still expecting a pattern change around mid January - hopefully this happens number one and that it will bring us something more seasonal along the lines of some frost and snow number two Since that severe spell of November-December 2010 we have had nothing wintrywise of note here in the south-east apart from the recent very windy spells I am looking forward to at least one decent snowfall this winter to take the kids out in - my little fella is 6 and was really spoilt by the snowfalls of the last three winters (Feb 09, Dec 09, Jan 10 and Nov/Dec10) - he is asking me everyday since November when is it gonna snow - like me at his age he now thinks its a given that proper snowfalls will occur every winter. After the severe weather of Dec 09 and Dec 10, he couldn't understand why we had mild wind and rain this Christmas - again just assuming at his age that christmas = severe cold and snow I grew up in the cold winters of the late seventies to mid eighties and also assumed snowfall was a given each winter until 87/88 and 88/89 arrived when I lost my innocence lol My nephew grew up in the 1997 to 2008 period and hardly knew what a snow flake looked like until he was in his mid teens when the last three winters hit Now my son is in the cycle of cold winters Talk about weather cycles and the apple not falling far from the tree lol Heres hoping the run of snowy winters continues this year - still plenty of time EWS

Yes agree with that - last winters snow prospects ended here on 26th December and despite some promising charts at times after that - nothing materialised from Jan to March except some frosts - hopefully this year we will have some snowy weather to look forward to in the second half of winterFinally I think we should respect GP's analysis as he obviously has more knowledge than most of us have put together - of course he cannot always be correct - if he was he would be a billionaire - however its analysis from people like GP, JH, BFTP etc.that helps people like me get a better understanding of a subject I love but unfortunately don't fully understand - keep up the good work guys...............whether your thoughts for second half of winter come to fruition or not I will enjoy learning from your analysis and thoughts.........

Hi Born - did you have snow today in your area in Cork - acording to Met Eireann there were snow showers in Cork Airport most of the morning - unusual to see snow falling in Cork and places much further north reporting rain

First snow of 2011 here in South Kilkenny also - always nice to see the first flakes of winter - surprised really as the upper temps on cfharts today on the face of it didn't appear to support snow - we had a light snow shower this morning and again mid morning, then a really heavy snow shower around 2pm in very blustery wind made it blizzard like for 15 minutes or so before clearing away. Even two days ago I would have said we had no chance of seeing some snow here in the south-east this week based on the charts. Just goes to show things can change quickly - hopefully there will be more snow in the coming days, probably rain or sleet tomorrow but a cfhancfe of snow showers returning from Thursday to Saturday for some areas especfially the north-west EWS

Looking at the upper temps on the latest models suggest to me that snow should fall to quite low levels from tomorrow evening through to monday morning. However any accumulations would probably quickly melt away from the higher ground during monday forenoon. The north and west plus possiblly the midlands should see some heavy showers with other areas probably doing well to catch a few flakes. A milder interval around midweek before turning colder again by Thursday and Friday with the risk of further wintry showers in places. Not a bad start to December considering the very mild October and November we have had and considering that the PV is spinning away relentlessly. Possibly a good omen for later in the winter when hopefully upstream conditions will favour something colder and sustained EWS.

Thanks Sundog Yes similar here - the first part was better than the second for snowfall due to the wind direction. After the heavy fall on 27th Nov we also received heavy prolonged snow showers on night of 30th Nov and then further frequent but less intense showers on the 01st into the 2nd Dec. We had a short spell of snow on the 03rd Dec which turned sleety before clearing away but then had another fall on the night off the 6th Dec followed by some snow showers for a time on the 7th Dec before a slow thaw set in a few days later. The start of the 2nd spell commenced with north winds and just a few flurries here. When the wind did turn to the east in the second spell the snow showers mostly hugged the coast due to slacker breeze and we just had a few light showers giving a dusting. The cold was definately more intense the second time round though. EWS

Here is south East Ireland (Kilkenny) last winter was the best in decades. Over 10cm's fell on 27th November as a trough moved down from the north-east which was topped up on several occasions over the next 2 weeks in the mostly easterly / north-easterly flow. We had deep snowcover for 14 consecutive days and partial cover for a further 3 days when the slow thaw set in. During this spell (26th Nov to 10th December) the temperature most days did not rise above zero. The second spell from 17th to 26th December was more of a northerly flow - we received a few cm,s of snowfall and had perma frost and freezing temperatures for the duration of the spell with extremely low temperatures but the northern half of Ireland bore the brunt of the weather this time. All in all the period 26th November to 26th December 2010 was the most wintry and prolonged spell of weather experienced in my lifetime at my location. I lived through Jan 79, Jan 82, Jan 87, Jan 97 etc. but these severe / snowy spells lasted between approx. 5-8 days. The month long severe cold spell of mid December 2009 to mid January 2010 was also memorable but with not near the amount of snow as experienced last winter. EWS

Sorry proper link www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

We tend to look at longer range GFS and ECMWF charts coz they go out further but I like the way UKMO has upgraded the chance of cooler / colder weather arriving next week on its +144 chart compared to its earlier charts http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html With December looming - hopefully this trend will continue for cold weather fans EWS

In Kilkenny in South-East Ireland our best snowfalls come from easterly or northeasterly winds blowing showers in off the Irish Sea. If just a gentle breeze these showers tend to hug the coastal counties of Dublin, Wicklow and Wexford but once the wind is fresh to strong these showers penetrate further inland and Kilkenny is often in the firing line such as Feb 09, Jan 10 and Nov / Dec 2010. Kilkenny is also one of the coldest spots in Ireland during winter so if conditions are a bit sleety near the coast in more marginal situations we tend to get snow. Northerlies are not much good for here unless a trough comes down in the flow like 26th Feb 2004 for exmple. In polar westerlies or west to northwesterlies we have often received snowfall in the form of snow showers even though we are on the opposite side of the island mainly because the showers have less of a landmass to travel over than when the winds are from the north. Frontal snowfall has been recorded here such as Jan 1982 but this is rare as the south-east winds often blow slightly warmer air in off the sea giving us rain and sleet while further north gets the snow. EWS

Ok PomeroySnow got it this time Lookin forward to it StormForce 10 - craic should be good and hopefully the weather too

Thanks Born from the Void Yes the signals are certainly conflicting and I do not think anyone can accurately predict what this winter has in store - it could be mild and wet or cold and frosy / snowy - for what it's worth I have a hunch that we may see something more akin to the early to mid eighties with several cold spells interspersed with milder south-westerly spells as opposed to month long freezes lahe we had from mid December 09 to mid Jan 2010 and from late November to late December last year. If I had to endure 2-3 weeks of mild weather in Dec, Jan and Feb in return for a week long cold spell with some snow in each month I would be happy Lets wait and see folks......... Sorry PemoroySnow yes Easterlies normally deliver here and did in spades the last 3 winters although we had two decent snowfalls last winter from troughs coming down in a northerly flow although sunshine and snow shower northerlies normally leave us high and dry - however after all this mild dross I will take what comes

Lets hope the 12z's show an improving chance of something colder for all the cold weather fans - if not no need to panic things can and will change at quite short notice - only a few days ago this european high was going nowhere fast and now its being progged to be blown away in the next few days - the same can happen with a change to colder conditions - as has been said before - patience people

Thanks PemerotSnow - good to chat with other people on the island with the same interest in weather as I have - hope you get your share of snow this winter in Tyrone

I wonder if the weather Gods that have sent us this benign weather for the whole of October and November have something in mind to counteract this mildness as we go through December and January - I certainly hope so - the last three winters have really whetted my appetite and I would love to see more of the white stuff hopefully kicking off around Crimbo - for the moment though still +14 degrees here in Kilkenny just as its been most of this month Earth Wind and Snow