[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

2 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

I've just seen Gavins 12th Christmas update on you tube and I wish I hadn't. No sign of any winter come 10th December its just constant Autumnal wind and rain right out to the middle of January as we lock a very locked Atlantic pattern

.  

 

Lets not get too carried away now. That video still shows a chart over 2 weeks away.  Given the current synoptic setup and the next 10 days of charts, I struggle to see how the atlantic is going to ruin Christmas. 

 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's going to be turning progressively more wintry from north through this week with arctic air sweeping south across the uk bringing increasingly wintry showers, especially to exposed northern, eastern and for a time, western areas. Frosts becoming more widespread with icy patches..thurs / fri look even colder and the cold air lasting longest further south-east, even into the weekend. The conditions moderate for a time with less cold uppers but then next week, if the Gfs 6z / Ecm 00z are right, a more severe wintry spell will be on the way!..could it be boom time next week?..hope so????

 

Week of the 5th will really come down to what happens to the Altantic low. If the HP holds out and sends the LP north west towards Greenland, then we could be game on for another cold shot with perhaps even snowier weather than this week.  Will enjoy the weather this week and not get to carried away for the next week just yet.

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

13 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

So we have our first cold spell in the bank so to speak. Whilst its not going to be anything special, many of us could see some flurries at least and it will feel bitter.

It's also now highly likely that there will be a milder interlude lasting a couple of days, then what happens after is the big question. The models are toying with a northerly/north easterly/easterly outbreak. The ECM this morning showing probably the best set up for the UK seen so far this winter.

What is really noticeable is that none are showing a vigorous Atlantic and whilst that's the case were in with a chance of something more severe down the line. More ups and downs to come but fascinating viewing at the moment. 

 

Good summary. The ridge starts to take form over night tonight. This lasts the week and should continue to bring cold nights and days. Scotland looks good for further snowfall, esp on the high ground. Would expect fine settled weather everywhere else.  The end of the week sees slightly milder temperatures. But should still be fine and settled. The HP has parked itself to our west.  Further into FI, it goes for a mega reload, but takes a full week to get there. 

As mentioned, the Atlantic is a no show. If we can keep the Atlantic shutdown, then this could be the pattern this month.  If we get a few reloads of this ridging, all it takes is for it to setup just right and it could put us in the freezer for a prolonged spell.

Roll on winter!!

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Hello PV lobe, welcome to the neighbourhood put your feet up, get comfortable and unleash your fury on our little island will you 

 

That is a stonker of a chart. That would bring serious amounts of snow to quite a few locations! Not just on the mountains.

 

 

[Snow on the Scottish Mountains.]

 

 

Glencoe Summit this morning.  Snow all the way down to the bottom and beyond!

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

I remember 2009 when we got that easterly (or was it greenie) on the 24th December. I'm in no way disappointed with whats coming, but if it was happening only 3-4 weeks from now. Boom!   What I like about the models just now is the consistency for a sustained cold setup. If this lasts all the way to Xmas, then it will be one of the best Xmas lead ups I can remember.  Even if low levels don't get the  quantity of snow of 2009 / 2010, it would feel truly festive compared with recent years.

[Snow on the Scottish Mountains.]

4 weeks I will be back in Scotland for the Xmas period!   Waxing the snowboard as I type this....ARgggh I don't know if I can wait that long! lol

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

17 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

For all the talk of similar synoptics to 2010, it should be borne in mind that there was a significant cold pool to our North East then.  The cold is not there (yet).

 

I have heard several comments like this on here, but having seen nothing really worth talking about since the winters of 2009 and 2010, and so many heartbreakingly close but no cigar moments, what we are lined up for is by far and away, the best thing since sliced bread. If you will pardon the anaology.  Temperatures are already dropping everywhere and we have probably had more snow on the mountains in the last few days than we did the entire of last winter. , with more on the way, which is great for those of us who like to ride the magical white powder.

 

 

[Snow on the Scottish Mountains.]

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18]

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

The GFS going back to amplified northerly feed by middle of next week after this weekend.  Whats that now, 3 days of models trending to a cold and wintry solution for the next 7 - 10 days. And a dumping of snow on the mountains in Scotland! Game on!

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

The setup atm is far better than at any time last year. How often did we see eye candy charts at just past the reliable only to seem them disappear a day later. At least we have some consistency in the near term to focus on.

 

[Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion]

3 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Interesting.... Colder December and January 

https://business.weather.com/news/seasonal-outlook-early-spells-of-cold-weather-western-europe-but-generally-mild-winter-for-much-of-europe?utm_campaign=&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Banked!

[Model Output Discussion 01/09/17]

Having a look at the evolution for the next 2 weeks, can I just say how nice it is to see some proper wintry weather being modeled as we head into December. The last few winters have had myself and many others peering from behind a sofa as the models trot out their output. 

Even though a ridge may not be able to sustain itself to create a long lasting Scandi or Greenie wedge, lack of southern incursions means that each topple introduces air mass from the north west before attempting to reload the HP.  Far better position to be in compared to seeing a Euro block to our east.

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18]

Current snow sitch at Aviemore

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18]

2 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Here it comes !!

 

That looks rather nice and healthy... hope it translates as forecast.

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18]

3 hours ago, Bradowl said:

I guess this isn't good news for anyone wanting the cold to spread here? Someone on here might know more than me.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/news/extreme-warming-in-the-arctic-over-the-next-10-days/

 

 

Lets see how this actually turns out. I wouldn't be surprised if that site was doing the opposite of a daily express. Plucked on run out of several rather than looking at the trends.

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18]

Annnnnnnd....... I'm Back! A month later than usual, but strapping myself in for the Great British Annual Snow Hunt!  I say it every year, but this year is the one... Another 2010 on its way!

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Anything possible from here really

 

This has been a consistent feature now for a few runs. The migration towards Greenland could produce wonders next weekend and beyond.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

7 minutes ago, K9 said:

How are we getting spoilt??...the models have admittedly shown promise....and continue to do so....however ...anything worthy of note has failed to verify....and no doubt will always be 7 to 10 days 'away'....still, makes good viewing, albeit frustrating and disappointing!!...keep up the good work peeps ..lovin' this site !!!

Compared to the dreary muck the last few winters, these charts are indeed 'spoiling' us.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The 6z OP was one of the colder solutions through day 10-14 as expected...though not entirely without support. There is still a fair amount of variance even at D2/3, so obviously extrapolations from this will lead to big differences ahead. It literally could go either way.
 

Post this weekend, majority of members close to -5 on that chart all the way to 25th January. Great starting point.  A few runs required over this weekend to really see if it can hold on to these sort of outputs beyond next weekend.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

A run with lots of Interest Cold air moving down from the south East..

 

 

Potential Greenie HP developing. I mentioned earlier, the HP of Greenland slackens off next Tuesday / Wednesday. The setup is primed for it. Keep touching wood!

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

To everyone feeling gloomy today.. all I can see on the models is bags and bags of potential within the 7 day time frame. Compared to last year, I'd rather be looking at lots of potential rather than lots of Atlantic weather. 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Clarity on Sundays runs I reckon still few little bits to iron out the lack of Atlantic domination is always a positive.

Things have back tracked a bit but still feel either retrograde to Greenland or another lobe moving in around Greenland. 

Upgrades look more likely than not things just bit messy right now.

 

We are in a far better position compared with last year. Ok Decmeber was a let down, how things have change quickly this past week. Oddles of potential coming up, and all it takes is a gentle nudge from the weather gods in the right direction.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Sorry that's not a Greenland hp.

You need orangey yellows on themy charts.

The charts I posted are the 850s, this is the 500.  The blob of yellow and orange needs to be tad further north though. My point is, it's got potential.