Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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It's coming
Looks good, but I don't expect it to carry on right through to winter. October is still too early for lasting snow. All it takes is one of those pesky deep south westerlies to put us back to square one lol.. But non the less, Bring on the Snow!
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Too much even for Siberia: Worst blizzard in 10yrs turns Omsk into huge snowball (PHOTOS)
The snow has gotten off to an incredible start in Siberia, where a record snowfall has paralyzed many areas of the city of Omsk, with thousands of drivers hopelessly stuck in hellish snowstorm traffic for hours.
Awesome!! I'm desperate to get on my snowboard this year. Hopefully I won't have to go to far afield and can hit the slopes up north. Bring on the Winter!!! Bring on the snow!
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And just when you thought it was safe to come in here Mwhahaha!
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This storm looks Wrath of God epic in terms of size and strength. I would not want to be too close to this thing.
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If it was winter right now, the current set up would provide lots of lovely cold temps and the odd snow shower. The snow gains are looking good.
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The Alaska - Eastern Russia side of the globe is seeing lots of big gains. Nice to Scandi turning whiter too. October is usually an exciting month in this thread.
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Not to mention the movie The Martian is out next Wed.
I've read the book and it's a bloody good read. I've head the movie is the best Ridley Scott Movie in years! -
Likely if that is the case, every nasa scientist will be shouted down as blasphemous by every extremist no matter what religion they belong to. The Earth is flat and we are the center of the universe
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I think the concession that there is flowing water (seasonal perhaps) is already quite strong. I don't see this just being a "confirmation". Where there's water, there's life. I would say 70% chance there is some microbiol presence in the briny stuff. The little buggers can survive just about anywhere.
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IMO, rising global temperatures are the earth's natural response to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2; the earth being unable to distinguish between natural and unnatural CO2. I don't accept that there really are 'two completely different beasts' at all...
Ok, but as humans, we can distinguish the two root causes of CO2 in the atmosphere. As you say, natural and man made. Aside from CO2, there are plenty of other elements which are IMO, worse than CO2 such as NOXs and Ozones. CO2 can be moped up by organic life, these other elements will hang around and cause damage to the environment.
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Yeah, I think that's quite a disingenuous chart (no reflection on yourself , of course!).
If we look at the months used in that chart, and the 9 months leading up to them, we get the following:
2015
2009
2004
2002
No comparison really. The cold blob (whatever the cause!) this year is unusual, if not exceptional, especially in the face of record breaking global warmth.
Those charts put things into perspective some what.
Maybe the warmer water has been diverted and is driving the El Nino somehows..
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So the Sun lectures us that people-of-faith are incapable of understanding science, and then goes on to display its own idiocy? Perhaps political propagandists should stay away from science, too?
The climate is constantly changing, over a hundreds of years. I wish these bunker nuts would not bat climate change about like a hot potato. What I believe they are referring to is man made global warming. Two completely different beasts.
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The longer you look at this, the funnier it it becomes....
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Well that's very interesting. Especially the part..
The ocean has a mind of it's own
What I took away from that is the general expectation is that the colder N.Atlantic is conducive to a colder winter here in the UK.
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The colour profiles are very misleading if you don't look at the scale. The warmer areas are roughly only 1 - 1.5C above normal, yet the dark red patches do give the impression of 'Severe warmth' lol.
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the whole basis of 'The Day After Tomorrow' was the rapid decline of the AMOC...
just saying...
Lol True, but I think they holywood - ed it up. There's no way that could happen in that time frame?? If the AMOC came to a grinding halt, would we get a climate more suited to our latitude, or would the Jet Stream still keep things temperate?
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I remember Oct 12 brought a lot of hill snow to the highlands, and after the two previous winters,the papers went ballistic saying the end of the world was nigh! And I wasn't the only one that was suckered into getting my hopes up lol.
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The data for 2009-2010 also showed a totally unexpected dip of 30% and this was accompanied by significant changes in the heat content of the ocean.That's outrageous. I guess it's no coincidence then that the extreme winters of 09 and 10 coincided with this event.
This winter is going to be interesting what ever happens. The strong El Nino coupled with the cold North Atlantic could really disrupt the jet stream.
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I believe there are a few tiny pixels in Scandi....
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With tens of thousands displaced across Europe I won't be hoping for a repeat of the Siberian type winter !!! That would be just awful! Sorry guys but mild for the winter please!!!!
True there are loads of migrants / refugees coming to Europe, but I would like to think that they would have better chance in Europe. As a developed region, we could easily accommodate people and provide basic shelter which is harder to do when they are in refugee camps in some no mans land in the middle east / africa. Even winter in Syria can get get quite cold. Mainland Europe gets colder winters too, but it would be shocking if European Governments couldn't get there act together and left a few thousand people out in the cold.
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However, last year we saw nearly 24C on Halloween and winter turned out to be very bog-standard.
Can I choose to pretend that never happened lol? I do remember wearing a t-shirt to a fireworks display which was rather an odd thing...
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Surely when talking about cold and mild we are meaning relative to average, not in absolute terms.
So I'm going for 50/50 as it can go either way.
Though, funnily enough, the Jamstec long range model is going for a colder than average winter across N/W Europe with the cold anomaly centred on the British Isles.
I hope you saved a screenshot just in case it turns out to mild slush lol.
I've hit 100% Colder. Just because I'm an optimist.
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We would need quite a long drawn southerly/southeasterly for such temperature to repeat, coupled with high 850s in the region of +15C. More likely 18-23C for most taking into consideration mist & fog clearance in the morning, any breezes that pick up, weak sunshine and shorter daylight hours. Nevertheless, what the models show looks very pleasant - 07th-10th October 2010, 26th-30th October 2009 and 08th-12th October 2008 are recent examples of where temperatures surpassed 20C - the 2009 instance being quite unusual for so late in the season.
Well, we know what happened later in the winter
So if we get a +20C late October == Epic winter with snow and ice... That is my logic and I'm sticking to it On a side note, Saturday was really nice, I actually got a little sunburnt as I was out all day walking. It's a tad colder today though.
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Thank you for a comprehensive expansion of your thinking. Hopefully this bodes well for an interesting winter ahead.
What strikes me with the Sept 2015 SST chart is the stark contrast between the very warm anomaly off the eastern seaboard of the US and the record cold anomaly of the 'cold pool' in the N. Atlantic. To me it smacks of the AMOC declining - it's starting to fail to transport the warmth north so the warm anomaly grows off the seaboard, whilst the 'cold pool' gets colder with insufficient warmth arriving.
Very interesting read on the AMOC here: http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/150290/ with links to studies / references. One section discussed the effect of large land based ice sheets breaking off into the ocean.
Evidence from paleorecords (discussed more completely in subsequent sections) suggests that there have been large, decadal-scale changes in the AMOC, particularly during glacial times. These abrupt change events have had a profound impact on climate, both locally in the Atlantic and in remote locations around the globe. Research suggests that these abrupt events were related to massive discharges of freshwater into the North Atlantic from collapsing land-based ice sheets. Temperature changes of more than 10o C on time scales of a decade or two have been attributed to these abrupt change events.And if I recall, quite recently, the Greenland Glacier (forget the name) shed a huge chunk of ice into the N.Atlantic. Would be interesting to do a comparison of freshwater being released into the Atlantic compared with 30-40 years ago. Also, not sure if that bit where it says temperatures changes of 10 degrees is an increase or decrease, or if it varies by region.
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Snow On The Scottish Mountains 2015.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Not going to bother Waxing my board.... It's time to get a new one!! And then wax that one lol....