Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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Might I offer this idea, if the GFS and ECM can not decide how they want to play over the next few weeks, might we champion the GEM and all it's wintry glory as the model leading the way..?
Just going to add that I'm surprised my internet is still up lol... it's pure blawin' a gale here!
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Well the CFS 12z is another beauty following yesterdays 12z:
Model filth lol ...... Where's the drooling icon when you need it lol.
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Can we please order a dose of the GEM? The split PV looks just awesome!
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We really could get that bridge this year.
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That HP needs to backup further with each subsequent run. If not, then I fear we are looking at a milder Euro HP establishing itself by mid week next week. If the LP in the mid Atlantic would sweep underneath into the med, then it would give us a good shot at getting the HP in the right location. As it is, the LP is progged to phase into the LP to our NW near Greenland.
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The biggest differences on the 18Z is the alignment of the Euro/Scandi HP at t.120. On the 18z, it is much more North and South. On the 12Z, the bulk of the HP was aligned West and East.
12Z
18Z
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I prefer to think that the poor synoptics are there to lull us all into a false sense of security and the Beast will sneak up on us and we won't even see it coming.
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Oh dear this looks all purpley and vortexy and from such promising beginnings. Another extreme mild option from day 8 in the ensembles no doubt.
Lest we forget that this could all change on the pub run or tomorrows runs. Lets hope we can consign these to this....
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If anyonevwanted to, they culd do animated gifs of dec 62 and this dec.
Would be the best way to do an anomolie comparrison.
I aint as im at uni and on my phone and have study to do rather than get caught up chasing the dragon.... Oops, t o late lol
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Well, the 90s this aint, and i refuse to belive recent winters were flukes and one offs that just happened to arrive like busses at the same time lol.Me too...this time next year we'll be
I'm really liking the growing chances of a colder european pattern becoming established as we head towards christmas.-
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Scottish skiing tends to be at its best Jan - May. However, the Alps they are not. The two best periods recently were Winter 09/10 and winter 10/11. Last two years have been hit and miss pre xmas and decent post xmas.
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If the NAO and AO both go negative in the 2nd / 3rd week of December, we could be in for a good Xmas. The Negative NAO and AO will only serve to allow an Easterly to flow.
Will we benfit as per 2009 and 2010 and march 2013? Only time will tell.
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Is it too late for the term "Indian summer?" Im genuinely curious?
I think the temps may be a little 'over-amped'. I wouldn't be too surprised to see some of the 850's diluted a bit more as we approach the weekend.
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A failes northerly would be a complete backtrack to a different pattern ala the beasterly of last december....
And by their natutre, northerlies tend to be brief and useless at inland snow prospecta apart from the north of scotland.
This one could be quite good for snow for a decent area, but, it will be brief.
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At t186 on the GFS so far and the Atlantic is looking far more amplified than the 12Z.
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18Z showing an ever so slight upgrade with the cold shot. Slightly further west with the cold uppers, but the differences are so minuscule, it will hardly be noticeable.
Looks like the the cold shot will last two days max (three at a push) starting with some stormy weather for the north of scotland bringing blizzard conditions especially to the high ground.
The -5 uppers start leaving the UK the early hours of sat morning.
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Here's the latest sea ice graphic from the Icelandic Met Office:
Doesn't look too far away at first sight, but then again, judging by the last couple of decades it could be a while before the slightest hint of any contact.
Anyone able to decipher Icelandic??
The northern coastline of Iceland has very low concentrations of sea ice according to some charts. So the water is def cold enough.
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Aviemore will get a proper pasting, too bad the milder weather returns before the snow can be used for snowsports......
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If one could order a winter, a Greenland High followed by a Scandi would be what I want. And for the High to move between each area, tilting on its axis (the uk) for the entire xmas-jan period.
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But yet for some reason I just can't resist obsessing over them! At the moment realistically given the upstream pattern and where the PV is expected to set up then the only way to get some real cold into the UK is from the east or ne, any other route really does require a team of Hollywood script writers.The trend for troughing in the mid Atlantic is there across all the outputs, we'll have to see over the next few days whether the Scandi high trend develops further.
If only we could get a super block set up stretching from Greenland heading east and then stretching south west from central Siberia, with the UK directly in the firing line.......
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GFS 06z finishes with the beginnings of an Eastern promise. The 00z and 06z share similar evolutions through much of the runs, with varying degrees of differences post cold shot this thur/fri. HP looks set to be in and around Europe as we approach Xmas going on trends. the position of said HP however will determine whether we get a green or white xmas.
The ECM has a lovely Scandi ridge by 240 which (if it came off) would send this community into meltdown at t-minus 24 hours.
I can honestly say compared to last year, this is quite exciting. Last December was an Atlantic rinse repeat situation on the models. This year however, is far more exciting to watch and far less predictable.
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Maybe a time to sit back and absorb this thread: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75166-model-output-discussion-12z-04122012/page-47 (not picking any page in particular, just the latter stages).
(Glad I was not in the UK for that event!)
Here is the EC det +192hr prog for that easterly:
And this is what actually happened:
A few days of chilly weather follow by a breakdown to westerlies.
Is this going to happen all over again?
Just noticed the 15th is a better example:
Why!?!?!!?!?!?!?!?!!
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One thing that hasn't been mentioned a lot is the potential for some very stormy weather over Northern Britain on Thursday, certainly some scope for severe gales perhaps storm force winds. Expect wind warnings to be issued before we see the wintry blast dig in.
Could produce some proper blizzard conditions and deliver some decent snow amounts to the mountains.
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GFS throwing a shortwave (Spanner) in the works on the 12Z. Prevents HP building into Greenland and forcing arctic air down as per 06z run.
That shortwave needs to be further east instead of north of us.. The only good news is that's it's probably at least 48 hours before the final detail of that LP is nailed on for certain.
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I'm really liking the growing chances of a colder european pattern becoming established as we head towards christmas.
Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by IBTHToThoseShortwaves
GEM t.240
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=TT850&hh=240&map=eur&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en
GEM sticking to it's idea of HP to our north/north-east.
Now in the 1000 club!!