[Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards]

By days 5 and 6 the ensembles show some pretty jaw dropping charts tonight. There are a few that have us in sourtherlies by day 5! There are quite a few big northerlies in there though and five or six are showing heights developing over Greenland. Very surprised to see this so early in the suite.The main conclusion is that we have massive uncertainty at days 5 and 6. The fat lady is struggling to decide which tune to sing tonight.Ignore the detail tonight IMHO.Jason

 

 

The Fat Lady is what you might term... Warbling like a harpooned walrus... tonight then lol. 

 

 

It feels like someone just popped a Balloon in here, could this be a ukmo wobble?

 

That's still going to be fairly cool / cold.

[Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards]

Purely looking at the ECM, I don't believe a return to Atlantic driven weather is on the cards past next weekend. HP is still in the Atlantic by t240 and over the UK. LP is starting to squeeze the HP the in Atlantic, but the HP over the UK is at 1040mb which will be hard to shift.  I think it's anything BUT atlantic lows for the foreseeable future.

 

The N.H pattern is looking very messy with the PV failing to establish itself.

 

[Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards]

It was down to shortwave drama over northern scandi which stopped the ridge from moving.

 

You can see the mess there it was just picked up late.

 

Shortwaves are so often the bane of our winters lol. 

[Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards]

What was the 'big fail' re ecm last year? If you are talking about the beasterly, then more fool all of us looking at operational charts at 7 days plus. You will find that there was cross model agreement on the easterly arrival. It was a fail by all of the nwp.

 

If I remember correctly, the 'Failed Beasterly' was shown on models up to t.48hr. I'm sure the vast majority of members on here know better than to get hopes too high at anything beyond 48hrs. 

 

Edit, Just realized bluearmy meant Numerical Weather Prediction. (NWP) and not NetWeather People lol. (Although I wasn't having a dig). My bad. 

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

Some really good ice images.

 

 

 

http://www.arctic.io/sea-ice-charts/#webcams-satellites

[Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards]

Beeb weather forecast already pointed to next weeks Arctic air on the air mass chart they display for longer range hints, so that's good enough for me. 

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

Just for you Frosty!

 

 

Another banker on the GFS 06Z run!

 

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

Barely any pixels in Greece or Turkey! It's mainly Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia.Sorry for the geography lesson but I couldn't resist.

None the less, they are there lol. And i suspect its over mountainous ground only.

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

Thanks for clearing that up. Looking at the NISDC maps(concentration map more so), there is a hint of some sea ice around the northern Icelandic isles. Just a small amount mind you, so conditions must be ideal for ice formation and perhaps more favorable than previous years for an ice bridge forming.

 

The maps can be found in the link I posted above.  

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

Latest IMS image showing snow getting into Turkey, Greece and a few other southern European areas.

 

 

And the ice pixels are tantalizing close to the Icelandic islands.

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

358 users reading this topic!! Crikey, it must be almost winter lol.  

 

You can see on the ensemble where GFS has a cold outlier follow the black line on the 850's from the 7th to 11th the average from all the ensembles is the red line

 

 

 

The vast majority of ensembles are pointing towards a cold shot. The only reservation I have is that at this range, as has been the case so often, we see downgrades far more often than upgrades to projected patterns.

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

Here's some cracking images.

 

http://www.arctic.io/sea-ice-charts/#webcams-satellites

 

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

The ECM is more in line with the GFS so it's a 2 - 1 majority. And in a democracy, majority rules lol.  

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

Make a note your diaries for the weekend of the 7th and 8th of December.

 

 

I'm banking this chart. 

 

ECM at 240

GFS at 240

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

 

 

I'm not sure if the light blue on the image correlates to the dark blue on the key or the grey?

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

There is always a lull in ice growth at the start of Nov. Looking at the NISDC data ovet 12 months.(on phone and cant post chart) You can see the last few years have all followed a similar pattern before resuming ice growth.

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

The PV is having a tough time of it lately. The charts posted by S.S above resemble something more akin to mushed up jelly beans lol.

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

HI Ibth, if the ice extends all the way across from Greenland to Iceland...would this be sone sort of record, when was the last time this happened.thanks in advance

Last time? I keep forgetting but it was a long time ago. So yes, potentially a record.

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

Oooooh, the Ice could almost touch Iceland!!!  Eagerly awaiting tonight's IMS update.

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

I dont imagine its vety thick right now. But if it makes it, it would perhaps allow the ice to thicken gradually.

[Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14]

 

Its getting closer....  The Icelandic Ice Bridge that is.

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

Aside from a brief milder interlude this week, the GFS shows a potential 'reload' scenario with another Northerly blast with a LP system moving south down the east side of the UK. (I'd take this weather pattern all winter)

Over the next few days, Arctic air flirts ever so close with the eastern side of the UK and one wonders if some of that air will perhaps reach the UK. Either way, Europe is going to be a decidedly chilly place to be.

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

TFINZM is all i have to say this morning. See if you can work that out lol. This pattern of weather is a next best if you ask me. If we're not getting an arctic blast with snow, i'd settle for this over zonal atlantic any day of the week.

It puts us in a much better position as we enter winter. And we arent getting drowned in rain or blasted by gales.

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

I think one thing is clear for next week.  Europe looks like being in the freezer.

 

(Would help if i posted the correct charts lol....)

[Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.]

T.90 bringing that colder air down further south and west. Due to the LP system over Scandi/Siberia is not as intense allowing the isobars to straighten up more and stream further south.  The cold air plunges further south quicker than before and is shaping up to flood into the UK.