Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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If January cold does win out then what I have in mind this winter will be up there with the very best for longevity and depth of cold and snow. I think this December has the potential to catch a lot of people out with cold and snow potential.
BFTP
Well December 09 and 10 both provided the UK with a shock start to winter. In 09 if i remeber right, it was around the 23rd and in 10 it was around the 18th?
Waiting to see what the evolution is like over the coming week and keeping my fingers crossed!
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Resorts are going to be opening up a bit later this year than they have for the last 4/5 years. Probably due to the fact that the UK as a whole has had a very warm and dry spring summer and autumn.
Glencoe 5 day forecast.
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Braemar Snow gate! It's snowing
http://braemarscotland.co.uk/snowgate-webcam/Nice.
This week coming looks set to bring some good snow to the highlands (dusts off snowboard...) with most of the country seeing some wintry temps. After that it will be interesting to see what happens. Hoping for something very wintry for xmas when I head back to Scotland.
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I think someone mentioned this the other day, but I been looking at Archives through all of our cold winters, and the majority of Octobers do seem have high pressure over us or close to us in most of them, and all seem rather dry!
Well, we may have burned that ticket with the September we have just had. Driest on record and I don't see two months out of three of autumn being drier than average.. but you never know.
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Looks like autum could start getting under way this weekend with some cooler air mass coming in. Perhaps a switch to a more mobile pattern?
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Well it looks like colder air by the weekend so could be the starting point for "autum actual". A more chop n change pattern developing perhaps? Even the beeb weather guys are commenting on just how dry september has been.
and today-
pretty good head start as we get into october.......
Some very nice snow gains in Siberia. Even scandi has some of the white stuff. It's going to be a long couple of months......
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Lets hope it not last Winters pattern, but a blocked cold and snowy pattern from November through to February
Indeed. I fear the winters of 09 and 10 are going to start turning into one of those " I remember way back when...." winters. And I'm not counting the cold snap springs of recent years beacuase as fun as they are (unless your a farmer) they don't last as long.
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Well, my post wasn't meant to start a climate debate, it was merely drawing a "loose" connection between the weather this autumn and the jet stream patterns. I have to say, 24 degrees down here at the end of September is in my opinion something of a rare oddity. Even back home it's 17-18 degrees forecast today. I remember of the last few years, the Atlantic is usually starting to wind up about now. Two years ago, on the 5th Oct I believe, there was some decent snowfall on high ground in Scotland (And I think the Express bought Maddens snowmageddon forecast hook line and sinker).
My point being, if the Jet remains on it's long windy path through Autumn and into Winter, then we will get stuck under one type of weather pattern for a prolonged period. Simiar to last winters unrelenting Atlantic storms.
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An article which kind of details what many aleady know/suspect.
And this summer / autumn is evidence of the jet stream slowing/meandering more often, allowing for longer settled weather or if your unlucky, prolonged wilder weather. It looks like we are heading for a very settled first half of autum away from the very north-western areas.
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It would be fair to say that the blocked pattern has been very prominent over the start of the Autumn. At this rate, I'd expect any significant pattern change, at the earliest, at the end of september / start of October.
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Yesterday vs today. Plenty of new snow around, really getting going now!
Sea ice appears to have start expanding again as well
We are still in the 'In between period' where snow gains are very susceptable to snow loss the next day. But it does look good seeing some of that white stuff in Scandi.
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Looks like I missed the start of the countdown to winter lol....
This year I shall definetely not be getting my hopes up for mega snow and cold. I've moved to just north of London so unless we get a dec 09 or Jan 10.... I will be keeping my expectations low. On the flip side, it does make it cheaper to get to the alps from here.... muwahaha!
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My assessment of the model output WRT to cold and snow prospects.
Onions.
The UK looks like being under the influence of SWerlie winds and a raging Jet stream. See you all in the new year!
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Lets not forget peeps, the Euro HP can still bring plenty of surface cold. The longer it sits there, the more cold air will filter into Europe and eventually the UK. This will cool the air coming from the south. And with LP off to our west, it will bring colder polar maritime air.
After a few days, the air should become quite cool with a mix of polar maritime and cold continental air. Surface temperatures could get quite low, especially at night.
So, I would put my money on some frosts building up, especially in the East. LP could make some inroads to the west from time to time keeping things a touch milder.
In a nutshell, at least it doesn't look like the full blown hairdryer treatment is on the cards for Xmas.
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Hate to admit it, but Height rises to our east, doesn't shift anytime soon. See you guys in two weeks. Bah, only joking lol, but as BFTP said, its all SWerlie from next week. Could be that 's the case right up to xmas. Obviously, not going to right xmas off at this range but for the next week to two, the writing looks to be on the wall.
On the bright side, the UK should be relatively dry for the next week or two.
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I thought Bullseye got cancelled? Thats a dart board and a half lol
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A quick GEM comparisson of yesterdays 12z (left) and this mornings 00z. (right)
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Found this in the GEM suite..... what am i looking at lol..
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The GEFS 06z mean shows a northwest / southeast split forming as time goes on, clearly shown at T+240 hours, beyond then the lower heights to the northwest make inroads further south and east eroding the fine anticyclonic weather which dominates the majority of the next 10-12 days across the southeastern half of the uk, becoming unsettled, relatively milder and windier further northwest.
That kind of setup (2nd image) would introduce cold yet more mobile weather in the north. Not the jewel in the crown but far from mild for those in Scotland at least. Plenty of wet snow potential.
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There is too much trust in the mid to longer range modelling, best to just take it one run at at a time, normally something good pops up in FI, cold and snowy weather will come because it's winter, patience grasshopper.
I predict a GEM of a GEM 12Z lol.
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Sheeesh, so much negativity in here today. I know the charts aren't pretty for us coldies to look at, but keep the faith (as Bon Jovi said), good things come to those who wait. The GEM could be the only model heading in the right direction so before we get hung up on the next two weeks trends, lets wait a few more runs to see which model gives way.
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No: it merely makes it unlikely, not wholly discounted. But it does look ever more isolated...
If the energy diving south into the Atlantic amplifies enough, it should help promote the GEM solution. The fact that the GEM hasn't back away from it means that it's still up for grabs. Some models will present a solution for a run or two before falling back in line with the majority. The longer the GEM goes against the grain, the more hope I will cling on to.
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Anyone up for starting a GEM only thread for us coldies??
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I see the GFS 06 is rolling out. Will be interesting to see where this run goes. Will it stubbornly stick to whats been shown in the last few runs, or can it tred to GEM??
Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It may not be blocked high goodness anytime soon but the LP to the north is going to give the UK a good wintry blast this week into the weekend. After that, its pointless trying to nail down the pattern but just looking at the GFS ops last night and this morning, I would say it's an upgraded in terms of cold. The HP to the south east not as dominant. Hopefully as time progresses, we would perhaps even see this HP migrate NW.