Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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this link may help
Thanks. So this is from the 17th of that December.
Notice the hieghts around Greenland are nice and strong with it extending east and south. If we get anything like this for Xmas this year... Santa can keep all my gifts lol.
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I personally think that people would do well to remember anything before New Year would be a bonus in this pattern. Once again, a day or two ago Tamara highlighted the likely progression and any decent amplification around Christmas was seen as a bonus. I know people are impatient but let's see how the post Christmas period (the real point of interest) pans out.
It all looks very '09/'10 to me which was a favoured analogue back in October.
I was literally just thinking of the 09/10 winter and how it got started just before christmas. Now i think about it, if i remember correctly, it was a greeny high that got us started that year? Could be wrong, but hey, it was 5 winters ago now lol.
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Looking at the means on Christmas Day:
gens-0-4-216.png gens-21-4-216.png gens-21-1-216-2.png gens-21-0-216.pngStill some way to go before any confidence in that Northerly. I do note that when GFS (and other models) spot this type of transient amplification, they do tend to, in the early days over do the signal, and downgrade as it nears T0. Hopefully it will be the other way round and it will drag the ensembles towards the hi-res.
Oh yea, how many times have we all seen that happen the last couple of years.
Once we are in the reliable timeframe, and this pattern is still there and / or looking even more prolonged, I will be happy. This could all come crashing down around us by the weekend and a few of us could be feeling a mighty bit miffed lol,
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They've been pretty much correct so far this Winter, so why doubt them?
Because if I took the Meto at their word all the time, I wouldn't be in here...
And like SS mentioned above, will be interesting to see which way they go with their updates. Some really strong signals for blocking as we approach christmas and new year at the momemt, but as always, it could change in a few days to mild mush again (hope not). -
Ok,sadly,it looks like it's not going to snow anytime soon,where can i find snow that is lying in Britain right now?My nieces and nephews have not seen any for nearly 2 years and i thought it would be a nice surprise just to have a snowy day out.
I am in Sunderland,so i looked online and there is an indoor snow/ski place at Manchester,but it's going to cost hundreds for a couple of hours(there will be 11 of us)
Please can anyone help,it doesn't have to be a resort,just somewhere with snow so they can sledge for a few hours.
Unless we get the Greenland high goodness later next week, then your best bet will be North. I would imaging the Welsh hills and Dales or District will get some snow as the usually do. Guaranteed snow really only on the Scottish mountains atm.
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The MEtO 16-30 Dayer has now deleted the chance of much colder weather devolving later in the period. Not a good sign and they must be confident of no sustained cold spell on the horizon.
I don't think anyone can be really be that confident that far out. It's still a case of wait and see atm with regards to post christmas and new year. Come this weekend we wil have a good idea and a probable scenario pinned down. Considering the trending pattern shift around christmas being progged, I'm surprised to hear the METO have gone the other way.
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Just to add to the frost saga there was a nice frost at 6.00, and the mild in the long term has got downgraded a few days ago it was showing the Azores high all over us but now its 50\50 with more and more cold scenarios and runs showing up for the festive period and beyond, so enjoy your mild weather this week because after Xmas all bets are off. Bring on the snow and frost.
I don't like to rub salt into wounds BUT, I will be back in Scotland for 2 weeks over christmas and new year, so I will be sure to post photos of snow on christmas day in here
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... and today was supposed to be cold, but in the sun its quite pleasant, no cold noses, no being wrapped up too much, no frost, so delighting as what you suggest is a downgrade , cuts both ways!
Was very frosty this morning at 7:20 when I went to my car, but temps were on the rise. Was 0 when I left, and 2 degrees 30 minutes later at work. It is nice to see the mild being refered to as a 'blip' though. How many winters have we suffered when the mild was not a blip lol.
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It's amazing how much improve the mood can be in here after a single run lol.. Everyone, put the prozac down until at least the next run
To be fair, the run did produce some very decent looking charts. But I think the trend is definetly there going what I've seen over the last few runs. By the time we get to Xmas, I am not going to have any finger nails left lol.
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Will we see this at anytime this winter? Just thought I'd post this for some coldies to dream over....a getting colder and snowier scenario.
BFTP
HP getting deeper still over Greenland, so while, yes it's out in FI, (flip flop), I think this could be the pattern change we need to keep an eye on for future runs.
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Collapses?, You what lol
Now we're talking lol!! It could be a very white New year and in to January.!
Also, is that a Polar Tri-Vortex????
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This mornings 00Z run obvously hasn't had it's coffee this morning because it went from this in the pub run last night...
to this...
So it's the usual flip flopping untill the weekend by which point we should know which way the cookie is going to crumble.
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Tis the season for snow on Xmas Day!
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Very true NBLSB, however, at this range, I'm gona hold on these potential silver linings for Christmas. It may not be a snowmaggedon this Christmas but the flippity flop nature of the charts at this range suggest to me it's all to play for still. Plus, I going to be back in Scotland (Mwahaha!) for Xmas and New Year, so bring on the snow!
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Just looking at the GFS 12Z as it comes in, already, T.144 looking much better and at t.159, a very interesting HP cell located over western Canada, drifts east and looks to block off the Atlantic providing a very nice looking cold stream.
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Having had a thought about it, I reckong the Azores high finally moving may be in our favour this year. I can't see it setting up shop of the south of France and ruining our prospects of cold and snow either before xmas or into the new year. A few have mentioned that the jackpot pattern change will be hard to pin down by the models and this is usually the case. My gut feeling (bro-science) tells me that once the azores HP moves, we could lucky. If it moves far enough NE, the Jet could tank southwards and who knows what will happen!
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Well, it looks like it could very interesting right around Xmas Eve/Day. I am more than happy to endure a few milder days with the azores high if it means that there is a high chance of the white stuff on Xmas day. Also, just looking at that time frame on the 850 charts, alot of purple pooling just to our north, which, can never be a bad thing I suspect. (Now where did I put my ramp.....)
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Just taking a look at the latest ensembles, very few members are going for a raging swerly jet and mild temps. Even out in FI. The majority of members are showing PM and LP to the north-ish. Think I even spotted the odd scandi HP appearing in one or two of them. In a nutshell, I think it looks like the majority of the country is going to keep on getting normal winter weather with temps around average or slightly below. And with PM lows in the main feature/pattern, plenty of chances for snow the further north you go.
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What a mess lol....but teasing the scandi link up.. Oh, FI you tease.
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Oooh, some more of the 09 this year please. Looks amazing though and very informative and kind of allows you to get a better look at the data rather than trying to read it off of a chart.
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I think a bit of perspective is required here. ATM, (the GFS anyway) is showing some HP moving into europe in 2 weeks, just in time for Xmas. Until then, we are getting some very seasonable PM weather. And at 2 weeks timeframe, I wouldn't get to disheartened just yet. I know we all want a white Xmas, but lets not get to carried away with what the models are showing for that period just now.
Even if the 'trend' remains constant over the next week or so, it looks to me that it could still remain quite mobile. It appears to me that the HP may struggle to get locked in leaving the possiblities open for it go north for the winter
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Who the hell said this
, IDIOTS. completely different type of event, a dec2010 would have many of the coldies on here hyperventilating with excitement, my god these idiots know nothing Lol, A Dec 2010 or 09, would be like xmas come early!
I do think these papers get worse every year. Pretty soon it will be "Warnings as Drizzle and temperatures of 3 Degrees look set to paralyse the entire UK!"
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For anyone worried about Xmas day snow, all I can say is 'Patience grasshopper' One GFS run earlier had a significant Polar low and snow everywhere for Xmas then the next run flipped to southerly winds and dry weather. As it stands, the PM airmass is giving us a taste of winter this week with most areas seeing frosts and cold temps, with snow in the north. I would say that this winter is alreay much better that last years no show (if winter = cold and snow for you) and some of us in the south (I am now a southerner lol) could get a dusting or two this week.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the northern PM lows dominate going into next week also. It does appear that the HP to the south west is having a hard time making inroads and as long as we don't get blasted by a south to north Jet, I have high hopes that we could strike gold come Jan.
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the charts are showing a largely zonal pattern which is the default for the uk, just with a couple of chilly days thrown in that most are focusing on whilst ignoring the bigger picture. hey thats ok, its just that in summer when we have a projected spanish plume that ends up being a 24-36 hour affair i dont celebrate that...in fact i find that frustrating. cold for colds sake?...nah im all or nothing on that front. gimmie a stonking great blizzard or it may as well be mild.
You may want to relocate to the a Scottish peak....
Glencoe Mt forecasted for whiteouts this week.
, IDIOTS. completely different type of event, a dec2010 would have many of the coldies on here hyperventilating with excitement, my god these idiots know nothing 
Glencoe Mt forecasted for whiteouts this week.
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by IBringTheHammer
Got to love the Pub run, if todays other runs have been "modest" in their output, given what we've seen today, then I so hope to see some R - rated goodness from the pub run tonight.