Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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A continual cold forecaster - last year he didn't do too well.
To quote him:
My snow & cold forecast for November & December 2011 for the UK was shocking, and that’s putting it politely, although several parts of my forecast for other parts of the planet have been ok thus far…………
Being a Firtreeonian (just invented the word) I take a certain degree of pride in predicting the weather, as do all Firtreeonians, consequently I’ve been looking through my original notes for winter 2011 / 2012 over the last few days to try find where I went wrong……Now I know where I’ve slipped up, and without giving too many of my secrets away I will say that the reason for my failure to predict the milder, as opposed to the colder conditions that I actually predicted for Nov – Dec & the first two weeks of January, has everything to do with the relationship of the Perigee Moon with the Full Moon for those periods
It appears that being a Firtreeonian isn't the only thing that he has invented.
I'll put this one in the crackpot variety.
We could put this one over in the Radical Theorem Discussion thread? The relationship of the moon to seasonal weather forecasts.......
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Sunspots are still low. Only real activity coming from the CME producing spot which has rotated away from camera.
INCOMING SOLAR STORM CLOUD: Magnetic fields around sunspot 1577 erupted on Sept. 28th, hurling a coronal mass ejection (CME) almost directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the cloud as it raced away from the sun faster than 2.2 million mph:
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It's encouraging to see the webcam shots of snow appearing in the thread. Now you know the long slid into winter is well underway.
The tops of the Glencoe Mountain and Cairngorm Mountain recieved a dusting again yesterday, so it's looking good for regular snowfall on the high ground as we enter October. The last thing we want though is the same as last year. A sharp blast at the end of the month followed by unseasonably warm temps at altitude which saw the ski season really struggle to get underway.
-5 Isotherm looking like it could brush Northern Scotland next Saturday.
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Slow burners fine as long as long the potential is constantly there and eventually it takes off giving us epic snowfalls, what I'm dreading is last winter where we had to put up with mild mush, little potential until February came along!
Most depressing winter ever on the back of the previous two.
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It's turtles all the way down!
Loved that episode of QI
Will have to dig out some more Radical Theories for discussion then.
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Sounds fantastic, something I'd be a lot more excited about if we were heading into the second part of November, October just wont have the cold pooling to produce anything noteworthy, I just hope the potential for Northern Blocking doesn't burn itself out before we get to a time when we have real potential!
I have a feeling (Yes its a gut-cast) that it's going to be a slow burner this year. Late Nov / Early Dec at the earliest, but I reckon another 09/10 is on the cards. Exactly 5 days before Xmas. 20 Dec 09 .... What a day lol.
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I'm not sure if snow is common in all of Scotland in October..
It's pot luck really. If there's heavy snow forecast for Scotland in October, It's usually at best a minimum of 500m and above and north of Glasgow. Snow is more or less odds on, on the tops of the mountains, even in a mobile westerly pattern with the colder air being dragged down behind any sweeping low.
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I completely agree, last winter WAS another very very harsh one for "Europe" the UK just missed it by a hairs bredth.
But it was that hairs breadth that caused us to miss out for the most part. Last winter at best, IMO, was average for most with spells of cold and warm (mostly mild mush). From a snowsports perspective, it was really bad. The season kept seeing the snow fall then melt just as quickly. Never got established until late in the season.
IF the ENSO had been a tad more neutral, IF the NAO had been -ve etc... we could have joined in the party. But alas, twas not to be.
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Further to Harsh winters post
Svalbard looking rather awesomely wintry today total white out That snow on the dock looks at least 6 inches deep.
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Are were putting this in the doomsdayer bucket then?
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I've been off for a day and it seems there is panic around here for some unknown reason lol.
The signals for this winter are good...!
We are in a much better position than we were last autumn. I think all of us were grasping at straws last year.
Any coldies like me, looking at charts for mid winter this far out, will be driven to the point of insanity as they constantly chop and change.
Don't do it lol!!!!
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Its the hedgehogs I feel sorry for, they're not the fastest things on four legs.
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Brilliant report BFTV.
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This is my local river two years ago, only further down from where I live and closer to the coast. About 3 miles inland. This also happened the year before in '09.
Will it be a repeat this year? I do hope so.....
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<= it's far too early for me to be looking like this lol, but this thread is cranking up the anticipation.
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my mums knees always hurt her when cold weather is on the way does that count?
Normal cold or Epic cold?
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If one were to create a forecast for the upcoming winter using only cues from nature (Old wives/farmers tales) what would we have to look for?
The ones I know of are;
1 - Laden berry bushes.
2 - More spiders than usual in the house.
3 - Field mice moving in early.
4 - Early bird migration.
Anyone know of any others?
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.youtube.com/watch?v=A6p7PfCziiA
.youtube.com/watch?v=kPDZUr9kHV4&feature=relmfu
A different video from the same channel going into more depth on the approaching Ice Age. There are several parts to this one, but I'm not going to list them all here.
.youtube.com/watch?v=8XFy75dIc4Q&feature=relmfu
Had to take out the http bit as the forum automatically converts them to media links.
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Speaking of which, haven't had any take offs the last few days. May have to start some Ramp Repair work.
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It's definitely not an idea you hear about every day. Or the possibility that stars are connected by "strings" of electrical energy. I've watched the first video a couple of times now trying to work out if the guys that came up with this are genuinely serious about it.
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Hopefully, the lack of solar activity will mean there is less energy than thought being pumped into the Arctic and the temps plunge down rapidly.
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I guess this is the correct part of the forum. I don't think there is a topic for this so I thought I would start one.
I thought it would be cool to discuss some of the more radical theories out there relating to just about anything.
The first topic of discussion relates to the videos below. The general theme is "the impending Ice age, or global cool down."
But the evidence comes from space, not from the climate driven theory.
It's a pretty far out there theory and raises all kinds of questions. Is the author just a 'crack-pot', or is he onto a new way of thinking that conventional scientists would struggle to accept. There is a bit of a religious/moral theme in the second video but I think the discussion should be kept to the Science only.
Anyway, have a watch and post what you think.
A different video from the same channel going into more depth on the approaching Ice Age. There are several parts to this one, but I'm not going to list them all here.
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Ah there's going to be so many people buzzing with excitement this year. It may get all too much and some might start exploding, myself included lol.
A link to a winter forecast;
http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-201213/
I don't know who the author(s) is/are, but I've read through it and it's a well presented forecast.
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Ah forgot to put that in.
Svalbard looking rather awesomely wintry today total white out 
<= it's far too early for me to be looking like this lol, but this thread is cranking up the anticipation.
Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
According to a certain tabloid paper we are. I don't see anything out of the ordinary though to be honest.