Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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You cant deny that the GFS is sticking to its guns with HP and blocking. The key is where will land, as seen on the 00Z run (which is rather tasty). If it moves East, then its good by Easterly and hello Euro high. But what a run! Hardly any LP after next weekend for the north.
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Snow down to 2750 feet on glencoe mt.
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FI bring the cold to western Russia and Eastern Europe. Good for westward snow progression.
Is that a scandi ridge forming at t.348???? Nope, ah well. Overall, from t.140, it's 2 weeks of blockage that even Mario and Luigi couldn't fix. Low pressure during the coming week is regressing south and west, and that little LP to the north has gone east.
Even at the very end of the run, there is more HP out in the Atlantic.
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Better than the 12Z run so far. Looking very blocked out at t.180.
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Is that a general Go team blue........
Blue skittles.
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to 'iBringTheHammer',I like the poem.
A community effort created by several members.
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This would get me more excited
So long as the HP wasn't transitory and made way for the first LP system to come sweeping across the Atlantic, that would be an awesome run up to Xmas.
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An Accuweather winter forecast. Little bit of Europe included regards blocking setups.
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Sorry Hammer but I am not seeing it the same as you, Could you post the chart you are looking at please.
The only high I can see of interest (Northern Blocking) is on the other side of the arctic.
Referring to the HP that was modeled to sit over the northern half of the UK. Migrating from North West Atlantic into Europe. It was looking quite promising on the 00Z chart, but as usual, it's now looking unlikely, with Low pressure persisting through next weekend, and even a hint of Euro High thereafter.
Writing the 12Z off today. It's gone from a promising weekend next weekend, to meh in 3 runs. But, I guess that's what I get for watching individual runs.
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Nice. That is a very good covering up top today.
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12Z teasing us with the HP situation. Currently at t.114, HP reaching further north into Greenland than on the 06Z.
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It's an impressive gain, but when compared to the largest one day October gains of the last 10 years, it's actually a little on the low side.
2012 = 226k
2011 = 282k
2010 = 220k
2009 = 257k
2008 = 227k
2007 = 250k
2006 = 282k
2005 = 304k
2004 = 183k
2003 = 215k
Average of last 10 years = 257k
Hopefully we'll beat that in the coming days!
Lol, always ready to put it back into perspective haha! Good job there is still 2 weeks of October to go.
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i would say there are slightly more blue than red pixels on the latest image. Go team blue!
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Lag time of 4-6 weeks from a ssw not from a little bit of warming. We have not had a ssw, so far too early to set the egg timer for 6 weeks...
I'll keep it on standby just incase.
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226K,
That is huuuuge! -
Probably wise to be careful what you wish for. Let's face it, for every one of us on here who would love a cold, snow filled winter, there are probably 9 others out of 10 who want the exact opposite. With fuel and energy prices running at an all time high and set to rise even further, there is a very real danger that many people will be unable to heat their homes this Winter and we're not just talking about the old and vulnerable here. I'm sure in the cold (no pun intended) light of day none of us would like to think that someone else is suffering or even dying of cold, just because as weather fans we love snow and ice. Of course the weather will do what it does and we will, as ever, all have to accept the consequences... but let's try to remember there is another side to the coin here.
I agree with you on this. I would happily settle for 2 - 3 weeks of extreme cold and snow over Xmas and New year, but not for the entire winter for the reasons you outlined above. It is a case of head vs heart as usual. A blocked winter with relatively average temps and high pressure is always a welcome one. Even if it is just to keep the westerlies at bay. I've had about all I can take of wind and rain.
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chionomaniac, on 15 October 2012 - 13:46 , said:
Which stratosphere thread are you following?
I certainly haven't said - that is called jumping to the wrong conclusion!
I did say "Signs of.."?
Anyway, you are right, probably would have been better to word it as "slight temp rise". Or "stratospheric warming", without the sudden. Either way, I certainly never stated out and out SSW, merely a hint of one.
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Yes certainly looking interesting but I would hesitate to start pinning hopes on the start of december just yet. I think anything with a 6 week time lag has to be taken with a pinch of salt as we all know, anything can happen. But not gonna deny, it does raise the expectation that little bit more. Not long to go now ....
Not pinning my hopes on it alone, more like, adding it to "The Epic Winter Box of Stuff Required For An Epic Winter.".
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So, looking good, add 6 weeks for time lag... that would take us to start of December.
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For those not following the Strato' thread.. promising signs of a SSW event beginning.
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I reckon there are at least 6 buzzards around where I live. I constantly see them perched on the trees and phone poles out the back or gliding low over my hen runs while out there.
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Once we catch 07', the next target is 2000 Avg.
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That photograph is proof that we are all living in SimCity!
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Awaiting the 12Z with bated breath now......
That is huuuuge!
Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by IBringTheHammer
Heaviest snow fall across the Cairngorm range ATM.
Latest IMS image shows snow more or less even as it melts and falls elsewhere. Some good quality white pixels over Scandi and the Alps now. Ice extent has exploded in 24 hours.
Todays.
Yesterdays
From the NSIDC, this provides a very good view of sea ice.