Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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It's amazing what being away for a couple of weeks can do when looking at the Snow and Ice charts. IMS looks sooo much better!
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The sun has been very quiet for some considerable time now, the process started around 4 years ago, with at times a spotless sun. This coincided with the jet streams driving further south. Recent research suggests a quiet sun influences the course of the jet streams, there have been a few burst of sunspot activity recently, but these are well below the normal. The sun should be nearing its 11 year maximum cycle now, but this is not happening, It could be we are just entering a phase similar to the "Maunder Minimum" which took place around 1645 to 1715, this was a period when there were many intensely cold winters and cool wet summers over the northern hemisphere.
It's hard to argue against what is starring us in the face, literally. The winters of 09/10 and 10/11 were during a solar minimum and the next set of solar cycles are expected to see pretty much a long continued solar minimum with subsequent maximums blending in with the minimums. Interesting times lie ahead.
With the exception of the white numbers, this is petty much what the sun looked like during those last winters.
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
It can't be long until we reach zero sunspots? As mentioned, the Laymans count has already recorded a zero spot count.
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Well the sun is certainly in snooze mode. The sunspots that are visible on the sun are just minuscule specks compared with a solar max sunspot. I do think, if I was going on gut instinct, that we have indeed passed solar max as mentioned above.
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The GFS has picked up on the Scandi High Signal and has now blown a fuse
Could need a decent supply of fuses this year. Obv, it's only one run and deep in FI, but the GFS has been good at picking out trends so far this autumn.
This is what you like to see the Jet doing..
It's had enough of all the hot air being blown about, and going on holiday lol. That would suggest the PV just isn't going to really get going.
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The one crumb of comfort is that 08,09,10,and 11 weren't as bad as 07. So fingers crossed, that we wont see anything as bad next year, or for a few more yet.
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Ok, I don't know how sunspots are measured, but if it was a few hundred years ago, I'm sure todays image would be recorded as having 2 or 3. Not the 35 posted on http://www.spaceweather.com
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I'm in GP's corner, only out of preferential outcome of course.
Out of curiosity, does the fact that the sun is nigh on asleep have any influence on the upper atmosphere temp profile?
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The refreeze looked so promising only a couple of weeks ago.
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The ski resorts suffered badly last year as any snow that fell was wiped out within a day or two. This year however, we seem to be gradually building up the amount of snow on the peaks. Unlike last year, any milder interludes look short lived (less than 24 hours) which means we should see a decent ski season in the UK this year. Cmon the Snow!
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Ah thx SS, it shuld be .info. My bad. All the webcams looking gd.
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Saw 2day a decent amount of snow on Ben Lomond and the eastnrn Campsie hills on my way in to glasgow. Looks amazballs!
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I wonder if we will get to Zero sunspots this year. It's certainly extremely low atm.
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Happy Christmas jethro.
Perhaps it should have really been posted in the RAMPERS thread.
Yes, a tad optimistic GTLTW haha.
Some really good cover building on the peaks up north.
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Well, looking at that, we're not far off of Iceland linking up with Greenland. That's something to keep an eye on. The Alaskan/Canadian side will take care of itself as we progress through Nov.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-20140313
A new target to generate the equivalent of half of Scotland's electricity needs from renewable energy by 2015 has been set by the first minister.The original target was set at 31%, but Scotland has already surpassed this. I have to say, over the last few years, I've noticed the sheer number of wind turbines explode.
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Did anyone catch BBC's operation Iceberg last night on bbc 2? Of all the crap that the beeb churns out, their documentary's are some of the best imo. Operation Iceberg's first episode last night was awesome as they spent 3 weeks on one of Greenlands biggest glaciers, Store.
If you haven't seen it, get on iPlayer.
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A very slight freeze thaw cycle will help the snow stick around for longer in the event that Scandi warms up during November. However, it looks like it's going to remain nice a cold for a while yet which will only help snow accumulate.
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GTLTW has hit the nail on the head. We need Nov to keep the momentum going so that as we enter Winter, we have the best prospects possible for snow and cold. On the other hand, if you are looking for warmth and a mild winter, you will be praying that the current setup will change rapidly to something more traditional. I.E something more favorable to an Atlantic westerly based pattern, or Euro high.
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I've been watching it all on Bloomberg myself.
Indeed, there not bad compared to the American media (Fox news for the presidential race) but they do have a left dumb down streak.
Not enough variety on BBC news. There's so much going on in the world, and the beeb only give us something like 4 stories in half an hour, and then repeat them over and over. Gah, I could go on a rant but I will restrain myself.
Have seen images of New Jersey levies bursting with some severe flooding. And there is another tidal peak due in a few hours.
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Ice is also markedly different. This years melt out has really taken it's toll.
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I suspect that like their reviews of 1987 they simply don't want to confuse the viewer by explaining the various requirements.
Apparently they are 'discouraged' to mention anything like the Jet Stream as it would turn off the average viewer.
Proof then that the Beeb are notorious for "dumbing down" facts, and at times, getting them just wrong. Slightly off topic, but I'm quite fed up with BBC news atm.
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BBC is wrong, whilst gusts were in excess of 100mph, at no point did sustained winds approach that.
Well, I believe it was one of their weather reporters/forecasters that was on the news 24 channel spouting forth this info.
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BBC reporting the Eye of the storm reached 940mB. And that anywhere else, it would have registered as a Cat 3 Hurricane.
Happy Christmas jethro.
Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by IBringTheHammer
Natice. The noaa link is natice.noaa.gov/ims I've been calling it IMS (Bad habit)