Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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Did anyone else just think the GFS 06z was like a wet dream lol!!!!!! Could we bank this?????
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Hopefully this weekend will be the last above avg spell. I'm going north snowboarding between Xmas and early jan...!
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Differences between GFS and ECM, if you ask me ECM looking much better!
Agreed. I reckon the flatter ECM will be the way forward.
Oh and well done everyone for surviving the Apocalypse!
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Just popping in to add Big Joe B's latest offerings. With a UKMET 144 hr chart.
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The GFS 00z pulled the dreaded Euro High out it's hat post Xmas. Nooooooooooooo.!!!
Unfortunately, I've haven't seen any improvement in the output from last week. With yet again, only FI hinting at cold and a change in pattern.
One would think that after such a good year for being British, we may have got a bumper winter from the Jolly Fat man, not a lump of coal?!
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Vortex sits right over Iceland. Would give Scotland some nice wintry stuff. BUT... as per usual, in FI..............
I don't expect to see any return to proper cold or snow until late Dec or January at this rate.....
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Not a very good end result from the ECM but if you look at the T120-168 range there are plenty of chances for the outcome to be rather different to what it ends up showing at days 8-10.
Cold coming back from the East remains the outsider, but it's not over yet.
No fat ladies warbling just yet!
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Next week shows major uncertainty, the cold block is close and is ready to pounce although the latest ecm run would be coldest in the far north, the changes begin as early as monday and tuesday with cyclonic conditions and temps a bit lower than the weekend, nearer 6-8c on mon/tues following the 8-10c on sat/sun. We really need to see the troughing modelled to slip further southeast to enable to cold block more chance to dig further south and west so it wouldn't just be scotland that turns colder, but it keeps things interesting for coldies.
Agreed. The LP flattens out then reforms. I'm hoping the ECM is overdoing the reformation and the LP will slide right under.
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Yes we are so close to a proper incursion of cold -the ECM way better on this as shown by TEITS but not quite there on this run.
Things are still finely balanced but i have seen these setups before where the block to the east holds the pattern up for a while as we remain on the edge of things.
We are not yet seeing enough heights building to our north.
Well, on the 00Z, the -5 was east of scotland, on the chart you posted, it's over Scotland. If i'm reading correctly. So, small but significant steps in the right direction.
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ECM like the other models continue to tease with that cold air edging so close to our north east around T120-144hrs..
again the energy from the west just too much and holds us in the Atlantic pattern.
There are just many fragments of energy breaking off the main vortex to our north which precludes any solid westwards extension of those Russian heights.
Looking good for the North. And the South isn't exactly tropical. I'm seeing tiny wee upgrades from the ECM over the last few runs.
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This mornings ECM vs the GFS 12z could not be more differant for the 22nd!!!!!!!!!
GFS loves to really wind it up. ECM much more attractive.
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I agree with Frosty (Edit, I wrote snowdrift as I spotted his name in the list of likes lol..... far too early!)
The question is, will be getting clipped by a succession of Lows through the rest of December, or is the GFS over doing it? It's a game of inches, and Joe laminate floori was def in the ECM camp last night, so, I'm inclined to jump onto the ECM band wagon too.
I've noticed that the LP front is still slowing down this morning. Wet weather was supposed to arrive at my location early this morning, now, the weather forecast is not saying any wet stuff until this afternoon.
Some blizzard conditions for the grampians which is good for the ski slopes.
Having just viewed the ECM this morning, it would be nice to see the ECM flatten everything out just a little bit more. Not liking the LPs reforming out if FI over the UK.
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And the ridging arrives at t.384.
Cold pooling over Canada
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What on earth is this all about??? That dongle on the LP coming of the East coast......
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The LP is breaking down into smaller shortwaves. By t.66, there are 4 individual cells, one of which is really tiny and gets reabsorbed, then reappears lol.
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GFS pushing everything further back by 3 hours tonight. Plus a strengthening of the Russian High. Milder air becoming ever briefer.
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Can I just give a big thumbs up to OldMetMan... Outstanding analysis, and yes I am biased towards cold, BUT, I am very much liking the post above. As highlighted by a lot of members the GFS is very much biased to Atlantic weather and has struggled recently.
This incoming LP has slowed and filled in a little more every run....
Here are you thumbs up OMM
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After the ECM, Lets have a pub run that's really on one tonight.!!
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IMO, the models have really struggled to model anything past day 3 this past week. This incoming LP has been very poorly handled. Never mind the LR stuff.
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well guys the ref just awarded us a corner lets just consotrate on taking that and if we scor then excelent, how ever we r facing quite a strong defence the atlantic.
More like playing a miracle escape from behind the black and nudging a red......
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Food for thought.
Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori
Expect GFS to "correct" west as it is now shifting emphasis to the last short wave in the train. ECMWF already stronger looking
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It has to be said, the warmest part of this weekend will be from early fri to late sat. After that, we are back under cool air. It probably won't be frosty but it certainly won't be mild for any longer than 36 hours or so in the south, and perhaps less than 24 in the North.
Temps looks set to stay cool then until at least Tuesday, which at this stage, could easily change if the GFS has overestimated the temps.
As for FI, would be nice to see GFS send the lows further south and undercut. This is the pattern that Netweather forecast for January, so will be keeping an eye out for trends towards this pattern. And we all know the GFS loves to ramp up the Atlantic.
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up to 21st? I think the chart shows 21st to 28th and this chart can change instantly depending on operational output like it did a few days ago.
Oh is it?? I thought it said up to 21st. And yes it can change at a drop of the hat, but this is what it's showing atm.
Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting - 20th Dec
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Shades of Jan 10' starting to emerge on the GFS FI. And yes, I will be holding my breath.