Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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Perhaps the lad would have been better off using the following ... "Hurricane strength storm" rather than "Hurricane".....And lets be honest, We usually get at least one belter of an autumnal/winter storm each year.
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Having a look at the IMS images, I'm thinking we could see a slightly earlier start to the refreeze this year?
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I forgot to NOT just link the images as the update daily lol.
Anyway, yeah, that is a good dumping in the Himalayas.
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I don't think that GP's forecast, for last winter, was bad; he outlined clearly all the likely pitfalls when his forecast was issued, and presented his effort in probabilistic terms...He wasn't pretending to be aux fait with all kinds of occultist nonsense, and blethering on about his knowing the unknowable...On the contrary; he presented it like it was...
Contrast that with the run-of-the-mill mumbo-jumbo that the tabloid press publishes each year: seagulls, grebes, hedgehogs, rowan berries, blah blah blah...None of which, will ever benefit from future advances in computing...
What I am interested to know is.. How will the major fires in the US contribute the global weather pattern? There's been an awful lot of ash and smoke been released into the atmosphere (On a par with a small volcanic eruption? minus the sulphur?) Could have an influence on how weather patterns develop in the US and then further downstream?
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It aint cold till your eyeballs freeze over.
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Hi!Don't know where to post this but this, but there is a young guy who has a Facebook page called "Steves Winter forecast". He forecasts a category 3 hurricane over the UK in October and a 6 month severe winter, the worst for 300 years (worse than 1962/1963) until April 2014. He has posted videos on YouTube explaining why!I will leave it up to you as to what you think of that. At first I had a big laugh at what he was forecasting and thought he was putting up for a laugh. However he's been forecasting this hurricane since February. He actually forecasted the weather for August and September quite accurately a month ago. He even forecasted the February winter storms in NE USA two weeks before it happened. However I am still taking it with a pinch of salt!!!
iceagenow.com or whaterver the site is lol...?
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Had to do a double take on todays chart compared with yesterdays, but there is def some ice expansion on todays image. Not sure if its an overall gain, but very interesting.
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Will never forget that winter SS, nearly 3ft level here and snowed in for 2.5 weeks until the lanes were cleared. If we had a Nov/Dec/2010 this year, and another March blizzard where there were 16ft drifts in places here, I would be a very happy man.
The 09'10 winter was best for us here in the west regards snow, but, as for drifts, will never forget driving up cairngorm mountain to the slopes and there being 15-20ft snow walls either side of the road. The result of digging the road out after a 3 day storm on the mountain. Epic!!
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One less white dot than shown on the 16th Aug 2013 shown here
16thAug.png but no worrys IBTH ,Earliest decent Scandi kick off than I've found from a quick search is from 2010 about three weeks later than were we are now
ims2010268_asiaeurope.gif25th Sep eh.... Will be keeping an eye on that then.
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Looking at those charts above, that would suggest blocking to our north and west. Ala 2009/10 and 10/11.
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KaBLAAM!! And I'm back once more for the winter madness!!!
Hopes: Snow and lots of it.
Gut Feeling: We are in a trend of cooler than average winters with the odd mild one for the foreseeable future.
This year? EPIC COLD & SNOW! (IMO - not based on any data)
Hey folks, I'm baaaaack. So I do think we are in the pattern of one mild winter in three atm.(So a reversal of the awful 90's drudgery) If you take the last 4/5 winters in a row into account, then I think, from memory, only one was a damp squib with the others having at the minimum, a 2 - 4 week arctic blast for the majority of the country at some point. These patterns are cyclical and there have been periods throughout history where colder winters become dominant for period of time, then milder, then colder etc...
The Solar Max has been utterly mince and I believe we've passed the peak. So if you're an advocate for solar influence like me, then we could be heading for another cold one. However, I'm unsure how much lag there is between solar weather and observable effects here on earth.
How will the recent summer influence our winter? Well, while it was fab to have a decent summer longer that two weeks for the first time in years, I reckon that's down to law of probability rather than any developing trend.
Soooo, these are my thoughts, make of them what you will.
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While I welcome a return to more seasonal temps, having returned from a failed snowboard trip up north. (Cairngorm summit reached 13 degs last night), with regards to long range easterlies etc.... not holding my breath.
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Absolutely f**king typical that the two days I planned to go to Aviemore (Thurs, Fri) we get above avg temps!! I mean cmon!!!
GAAHAHGAHGAGAHAGAGHAHGAGHAGHAH!
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Going away on the 3rd Jan to Aviemore for snowboarding on the 4th Jan. The modeled HP makes me want to tear my eyes out. So F**king sick of being bombarded by S**ty wet, windy, mild muck!
As soon as I can, I'm leaving the UK and not coming back. Austrian Alps are a calling.
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What are the chances that the Azores high could do a Beast from the East and do a swift about turn at t.44 hrs? Or are the models better at handling an Azores HP than they are at a north/north easterly incursion?
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I would say only 6 weeks of winter left because the 06Z is dreadful until mid Jan.
Quickly losing faith in LRF's. All the talk of negative AO/NAO/Greenland HP and for the rest of the year into Jan we have the exact opposite!
At the moment the ECM seasonal output looks to be the only correct forecast which did indeed predict a mild, zonal Jan.
Just goes to show that you can have all the positive background signals you want and it won't matter a jot! Aside from the high ground getting a freeze thaw freeze cycle, nothing cold or white anywhere low lying.
Quickly becoming brased off with the fact that our little island just seems to be getting drenched constantly. We will sink if it keeps up. And unless we get a vast improvement in pattern for spring, all the farmers are going to have to switch to growing rice.
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Yes it looks very unsettled for the rest of the month Frosty.
I think many of us would raise a glass of festive cheer to a even a brief period of high pressure with a bit of frost but even that looks very unlikely at the moment.
Indeed it does. But, as many of us have witnessed in the past, HP can creep up out of now where and set up shop for weeks at a time. Lets hope the GFS is overdoing the Atlantic this morning.
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ECM again looking not too bad. Some decent cold weather over Xmas and New year looks on the cards.
If only the weather would cease to be so bloody atlantic driven...
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I've concluded that the models throw in shortwaves when they get stuck, just so they have something to work with....
Up to and including boxing day looks pretty straight forward, it's what happens there after that intrigues.
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You get 10/10 for being so optimistic, and we need more of that in these testing times but there are some hints here and there for a colder pattern or at least a cold snap or two in the near future.
Cheers Frosty. I haven't been on much recently thanks to all the mild mush that's been around. So my main focus is on FI and what we could be heading towards come Xmas through to early jan. And I've decided to be only positive at this most festive time of year.
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I highly doubt we will be starting the New Year in the freezer, in fact the first week of January is a case of more of the same at this moment in time, Then we are at the mercy of the weather gods in any SSW having an effect on this tiny island.
Agreed, all speculation on my part, BUT, if we rolled the dice and came up 7's, it could be a very cold month. If today's 06Z FI run from the 30th to the 7th verified (
) and we struck luck with a SSW propagating more cold towards us.... It could be a very, very cold Jan.It is all if's and buts I know, but the consequences of such a long cold spell would be nigh on 'apocalyptic' <- get it? lol
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Chiono is expecting a SSW around the 10th according to his tweet. Could we start the new year off in the freezer and finish it off in the freezer post SSW? Could make for a record cold month.
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Frosty, I didn't ask that mate, I know and have read all the views from members etc, just want to know how to save it please
BFTP
Take a print out and pin it up
) and we struck luck with a SSW propagating more cold towards us.... It could be a very, very cold Jan.
Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I have always had the feeling that the earlier we see a HP block over Greenland/Scandi then, the later into Winter it is before we see a cold & snow event of the past few winters.
To me, it seems that just as we approach winter, the block gets disrupted and it takes a month or two to reform. (going on the last two winters)
Far better to have a mobile pattern to start Autumn with and a better chance of a prolonged HP block to start winter off with (2010), rather than having the HP block throughout autumn and for it to get blown out by westerlies just in time for winter starting.