Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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Well we're t minus 9 mins and counting.... "It's the final coutdown duh duh duh duhhhhhh! do-do do-dooooooo"
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Here's a model showing where all our cold has gone.....
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Does anyone know if Kayaks are any good for sledging ? I'm just wondering whether to buy one. That way, no matter what happens, its win win as far as winter weather activities go.
If the snow is deep enough then yes, I would say it would be lol.
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Yes, and the already disorganised/weak PV looks to be taking more hits as we head into the 2nd part of the month, with wave one activity set to increase yet again in the strat.
With clear signs for the PV to trend towards Siberia, i would be looking for height rises towards Greenland as we head towards and through the xmas period. Perhaps an xmas northerly? Will be watching the models with interest over the coming days
There was a FI Xmas beasterly on last nights Pub run...........
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I think we all need to retire and reconvene for the Pub run. The last two have been pretty good, it may deliver some Yule tidings!
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Well what a terrible set of runs from this evenings 12z. They have pretty much drained any hope of a cold spell for the next 16 days away.
Time to take a week break from model watching methinks.
There has even been a removal of what could have been an ineteresting storm or two.
At the moment just a bunch of mature lows forecast.
Biggest snooze fest of a 12z in a long long time.
We need a synoptic reset or it will be January before we know it.
I agree with Nick Suss, We need ride of the Siberian High, it is only going to wasted a good portion of our winter at the moment
And as i have outlined many times in the past. the UK 90% of the time needs a GREENLAND block to sustain a cold spell.
So crucial./
One posibility is if the HP can put a beat down on the LP and link up with Greenland. A flatter easterly would still give us some cracking weather. I don't see why that LP is extending towards Iceland once it hits the UK. The natural flow would take the LP south east and under the HP.. Damn fickle mother nature.
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A possibility that cropped up last night was the LP throwing off shortwaves into the Continent which in the longer run encouraged the HP to creep westwards. It would mean some wet and windy weather in the short term but it's a better scenario than LP after LP fizzing out over the UK.
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Can't help thinking that we are going to get a cold and snowy spell all this week and into next week, but the models are not showing it becasue they've been hacked by UKUNCOLD
I like your positive thinking, and I'm trying to remain as positive as I was last night.. but after that 12z....
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The 12Z made me want to tear my eyes out.....
That Low looks like doing some serious damage to the Ski slopes by the end of the weekend. Only the ECM keeps Scotland under colder uppers until end of Fri but the milder air could really put a dent in the snow cover.
Unless we get a miracle.... prepare for some wet and windy weather by end of the week.
Once we get to day 5+, it's any ones guess what will happen. I think a retrogression of the LP NW is the only thing that will allow the Easterly HP to advance westwards. The danger is that the LP just fizzles out and is replaced with another one.
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Ahh, I'm off for the night. What a run!!!!
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....and by T144 the 500mb chart shows the Scandavian upper high building again pushing the easterlies into Shetland....However that strong cold northerly blast from Eastern Canada needs to be switched off. Its giving the Atlantic too much energy.
That's whats driving the LP south and elongating it I believe. Without it, we could end up with a Jet ploughing straight into us.
A Beasterly in time for XMAS!!!!!
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...And he's put the white behind the black...!! (at t.216 lol)
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It's going to be a drawn out affair. Those little shortwaves ejected over the continent are dragging some of the LP energy out with them. It's only a short step away from becoming a full blown slider.
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Ok, at around 168. My assessment is that the Low retrogresses back west alot quicker and the HP to the east advances further west. It's another upgrade and another step in the right direction. Still no sign of a slider operational.
The air over the UK only briefly comes out of the 0 line. It's by no means going to be hugely mild.
God this is exciting!
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Second shortwave about to follow the first into the Med. Actually, more like across france/germany.
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At t.129 .. small shortwave ejected into the med.
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no sign of "hurricane" higgins yet.....
You do realise if it does crop up, it will have to be named that now lol.
Let me see that LP squeeze baby squeeze. How low can it go?
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....but the whites gone in off.......
... it's popped back out.... ahhhh! unbelievable match play....
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No no no... do not throw off a shotwave...
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Ok, at t.51, the bottom edge of the LP is sitting a wee bit further south... Looking good so far.
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Lets have some of this!
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Will the 18z see a gargantuan shift. Make that block to our north stronger against the initial push from the west near 72hrs and then slide the lows into France?
I think the trend is our friend but unsure whether the 18z GFS will be onto this yet.
Get your seatbelt fastened because i feel the next 24hrs will be huge.
There is potential for a serious snow-event to hit some location in UK mid-week.
We should know by tomorrow evening whether the slider is possible. I think it is not possible but, likely.
If its as good as last nights 18Z, this forum will probably explode.
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Its a westerly flow on GFS and ECM OPs, bringing cyclonic weather but as you say its not zonal per se, at least while the block lasts. However it is probably worse than raging zonality in the medium term as the lows slow down as they meet the block and the UK ends up in the firing line for high levels of wind and rain. Of course it is synoptically better for cold, as it may allow the Russian high to push back west, however it will need the upstream amplification to trigger this. At the moment nothing conclusive on that front and the GFS op (later stages of FI) has the Russian high migrate to Siberia, giving a more active zonal flow.
Depends on which Op you look at. The 06Z had us under an easterly. The Siberian High looks to become fairly established and close to us at t.144. That has been on both the 12 and 06z. It's what happens after that I'm looking forward to seeing. I would say it's going to be an interesting week or so.
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ECM mean at T120hrs shows how close we are to serious snowy breakdown.
It's coming, this bad boy is going to slide right under and we are going to be getting plastered. I'm going to positive think it to happen!
Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
One mans freezing is anothers tropical lol.