Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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Breezy point in NYC. 50 homes destroyed by fire.
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The sun today.
No new sunspots emerging. Sunspot count could get very low over the next few days.
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Just a couple of pics from GlenCoe and Cairngorm to show current snow status.
The Ptarmigan camera is offline so the view of Cairngorm is from Loch Morlich.
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Without trying to sound blase about the situation, it is probably the closest NYC has come to "The Day After Tommorow" scenario regarding the level of flooding. Just extraordinary
Does anyone have info about the level of inland snowfall?.
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Well, not seen as many outputs recently, but from the ones I've seen today, 12Z esp, we are looking like being kept under a cool zonal flow. The 0C line more or less constantly covering the UK. A cooler than average start to November looks on the cards.
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This storm is going at a marathon pace rather than a sprint. Going to create a lot of havoc.
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The snow in Europe still there, and has expanded a little. Further gains in Scandinavia.
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The snow cover has been boosted over the last 24 hours. Ice as mentioned only making small gains. Could do with a sharp drop in temperatures over the pole.
Massive difference in Snow cover over 24 hours. Uk gets it's first white pixels of the season.
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Massive difference in Snow cover over 24 hours. Uk gets it's first white pixels of the season.
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i know the NH doesn't look normal but there is far to much emphasis on northern blocking on here im afraid, the fact is this island just looks to have normal autumn weather next week, this weekend looks quite chilly though
yes ECM FI looks blocked but its FI so until this northern blocking has a real impact on this island, i don;t care how much blocking there is over greenland or the NH, as we all know northern blocking doesn't always mean cold for us, i know it dosen't look milder in the near future but as i said these lows that are shown for next week could end up further north, meaning the south becomes milder, i remember nick sussex saying this often happens and he was right as it happened last autumn and winter
Tis very true. Overall, I'd say the model outputs look better than last year so far. As you mentioned, doesn't guarantee a bean, but I will remain quietly optimistic that even if we do get a zonal winter, it will be a cold zonal winter rather than last years dross.
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That is an impressive gain in Ice and Snow especially!
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lots of people do have winter tyres here and swap their all season ones..depends on the vehicle you drive and the type of snow you get...anyway its still snowing temp -7c..do i expect this weather to be the forerunner of a cold snowy one for my location..i dont think so.
Now you've said that, it will probably snow all winter where you are...
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I think the GFS is going off on one with the 850 temps south of Greenland. That wee orange blob looks a bit optimistic.
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Do you want a job as a moderator?
Yes please, lets stick to what it says on the title of the thread, not that difficult really, is it?
Judging by the GFS 06z ensembles, it may well be more than just a snap, having said that, many may have to wait for their snowfest, understandingly, given the time of year.
12z runs rolling out right now.Checked the ensembles last night. Quite an impressive drop in temp. Even after the initial blast, it never really recovers.
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Ah the old "there's berries on the bush" myth. Yeah, it's rubbish. Plants grow based on a good growing season, they don't grow based on future weather events.
Do we reeeealllly know that for sure? Ask some folks, and they will tell you that trees and plants can talk to each other. Perhaps they can organise themselves for a coming season lol.
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Never liked the ITV weather. Found it to be rubbish in comparison to the BBC weather. And they still use symbols! How retro, and inaccurate.
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Northern Canada looking very good now with further snow fall. Sea Ice still making gains though, hard to tell how much on these charts.
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00Z FI is very pleasant for us cold fans, but it is FI....... Anyway, the 00Z gives us a little more cold air than the 18Z and another decent reload. The interesting bit is working out what will happen thereafter. Towards the end on the 18Z, LP swept in off the Atlantic (Ex-hurricane?) giving us a more mobile outlook. The 00Z shows a decent Northerly flow before the Atlantic moves in right at the end.
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Better for recycling cooler air rather than dragging warm air up from the south. Interesting run, has it's plus points and negative points. Few more runs required I think before it's safe to call exact duration and depth of the cold shot and any potential reload.
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Ah lol. I notice that as the ruun goes deeper, the air over the Atlantic begins to cool down. Far more green tones than yellow. And Colder in southern europe.
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We have -25 850hPa air at the moment, and thats forecast to only just make Southern England
The reload has significantly less "cold air" over the same place, going by the 18z
So definitely not any "colder" I wouldn't have thought, but I suppose it'll help keep temperatures below average with further widespread frosts! IF it comes off, of course
Do you mean -2.5?
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18z is an improvement on the 12z thats for sure with re-load potential! I feel that the re-load is showing too soon though, after the initial blast of cold the Arctic has pretty much displaced all of its cold into Europe, it doesn't look like a re-load would be any colder than the initial shot, the cold pooling over the Arctic just isn't there at the moment.
I get that impression too. The Really cold air doesn't get a chance to build, and it's looking at the moment like it would dwindle out. The good news is that the HP looks to be going nowhere fast.
18Z
12Z
Better reload on the 18Z. This is at t.141.
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t.108
Reload!? Watching in anticipation.
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the 30hpa strat temp for early november is irrelevant to the general point being made by GP. its all supposition at the moment and i think you'll have to wait some time to get a handle on what effect the strat is going to have on this winter. part 5 of this thread and just over half way through autumn!!
I wager 25 parts by the end of March.
12z runs rolling out right now.
Cold Weather Chat and Ramping Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by IBringTheHammer
Should have taken the 4x4.....