Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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On any other day, this would undercut. I mean, look how flat this low is......
Very minute differences at t.144. This is getting old hat.
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Really think that are main cold will happen in January as the next 10 days or so are really going to be the z***l steam train which is unfortunate plus MJO phases aren't really in are favour at all going to some time for that to change not writing of Winter just the Next 10 days until we start to see some change in the models.
I will leave you with this pretty picture.
This is what the Netweather forecast is hinting at for mid January. Would be lovely to see this develop by the end of the weekend however.
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Carlsberg
BFTP
If Carlsberg did winters..... they'd probably be the best winters in the world!
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Phhfffffftttttttt........
The only slight, minuscule, microscopic, shred of hope we have of avoiding a stagnant pattern is if the models are consistently wrong about the path of the LP. If we get to fri/sat, and it starts to undercut rather than retrogress north west-ish, then we may have a teeny tiny weeny bit of hope glimmering through the Foreboding Door of Despair.
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"....and another one bites the dust....."
It could be BBQ for xmas dinner.
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If that second Low is quick enough, it would be able to get in behind the first and under the HP. We need to get the Canadians to blow hard to the East.
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The Atlantic does seem to be weakening with every run, that can only be a good thing can't it?
It is indeed weakening more quickly. As ever, it will come down to minute details such as shortwave activity. The ideal scenario is for shortwaves to get ejected under the HP across the continent.
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think were starting to see the undercut on sunday night
Could be. At 123. its looking a lot better. Ideally, if that LP can keep getting sucked under, it would drag the smaller one behind it helping to deliver a nice flat pattern with easterly winds for the north, but westerly for the south.
I don't think it wants to go though.
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Shortwave sent east into the seaboard. This will have a real knock on effect in FI, this has also seem to weaken the low as its taken a bit more energy east.
Two shortwaves, will most likely gang up to create a new LP and it's rinse repeat.
Hold the freaking fone! Is that the HP trying to link up with Greenland at 114......? Lol...I may be getting too excited at the smallest things
There is much better amplification from the Azores towards Greenland also at 117.
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do u think two lows could help spiral each other down to the continant.
prob a stupid question but had to ask
The Jet stream is trying to send it under the HP block. But, the LP just isn't squeezing by.
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Low splitting at T+72, does anyone know what implications this could have?
Will help to keep temps a touch lower as it recycles colder air to us faster than a cell further out west. As for FI.... no clue.
The cell center transfers to over the UK which flattens the northern flank of the LP. Keeps colder air closer to us.... interesting to see what happens down the line. Not as much amplification either.
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He said brolly as Sledge may curse it lol
Exactly. I'm taking my GF to Aviemore in January so I can go snowboarding (She skis
) . My board only got used twice last year, so there will be no jinxing lol. -
Tonight's ECM ensembles are out
ECM temps trending colder towards the end of the month, while the precipitation trends up... time to dig out the brolly again.
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Well, It will be interesting to see how the remainder of the month pans. Just watched netweather winter forecast and they are going for cold spell from mid january, in line with wave activity affecting our weather in 6 week cycles. Goes someway to explaining the cold spell we've just had. Chiono may be able to clarify what exactly they are relating to. I'm not the person to ask lol.
But the the pressure charts looked favorable for mid january. High pressure in Northern Europe and LP in Southern Europe. Picture the LP undercutting at the weekend and that's what it resembled.
They also forecast below avg temps for december, and as it stands, it looks like remaining avg temps at best which would be a feather in the cap for the Netweather team as the December monthly CET would come in below average.
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I couldn't keep away lol.
So everythings par for the course regarding the LP arriving. How far south will it go before arrival?? Only time will tell. Please correct me if get anything wrong, I'd like to highlight a couple of features regarding the incoming LP that I think will be key in determining what will happen next weekend and beyond.
The LP just breaks over the UK. The HP to the east just puts up a barrier and shouts "You shall not paaaasssss!". The GFS is constantly nudging the system south as we approach t.0.
The movement south of the LP should allow it to squeeze under the HP, but HP to the south is proving difficult to budge. This is why the LP is just doing a Kylie Minogue on the spot which causes the northern edge to bulge out northwards, and cut off the cold air.
IF, and it's a big IF, this LP can find a gap between the two HP cells, it may cause enough flatttening out to allow more of an undercut. It could also do with telling the small shortwave/depression following behind to pi** off and allow the HP under the LP to ridge up to greenland behind the LP.
So, If that's all we need, then I rate the odds at about 2000/1 ?? Any takers??
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Went raking through the Archives to see how we were setup compared with the winters a couple a years ago.
First, 6 January 2010 - Just before the Epic cold arrived.
December 15th 2010 - again just before the epic cold arrived.
Our current setup.
Both of the previous two cold blasts had HP parked just off our west coast... If we can find any of that again this winter, then it'll be time to get the champers out. Until then, I fear we will struggle to get any significant cold and snow that isn't just fleeting.
That said, the first two weeks of December this year have been fairly cold with some decent snow across a portion of the country. Will it be the last? Or will we find one of those hidden gems above in the next few weeks?
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OK, if the extreme FI came off for Xmas, Id be happy lol. Night all.
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Only difference is the angle of attack from the Atlantic at t.180. See you all in a few days.
Look familiar?????
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Time to stick this one in the bin.
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look at the way it just stops dead slap bang on top of us 4-5 days of constant rain the totals will be mega bad flooding
Indeed it would be bad flooding, but it looks like the Low will just grind itself to death over us. I would expect the METO to be putting out flood alerts towards end of the week.
..and there is a slight undercut to the east with colder air remaining in Scandi...
Much better undercutting. Could work in the long run, but it looks like enduring some pretty awful weather for 3-4 days.
At t.138, that Low is completely cut off, it doesn't have anywhere to go but SE.
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There is only possible solution, I can see, that can bring us the cold. That Low has to sit in place over us and let the cold envelope it from East, North and north west. Once it's filled in, we may be left with some pretty cold air again.
This run looks like it may pull that off.
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Going to see how this plays out up to around t.144. Then I wont be back for a few days.........
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Pfffffft.....
Check out that Low just grinding up against a massive wall of HP. Stretching from Siberia to the Azores.... It looks like a baseball mitt catching the ball just before it left the park.
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So according to the pub run, from t.57, Scotland is set for a snow event. Good news for last hurrah before the low arrives. At t.69....
) . My board only got used twice last year, so there will be no jinxing lol. 
Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 12th Dec
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/278921720159694848/photo/1
Global temp anomaly up to 21 Dec.