Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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Temperatures will plunge as low as -15C, bringing freezing rain, sleet and snow, as the freezing 7,000-mile wide 'Beast From The East' sweeps the UK across Monday. The purple area in the top right of this graphic shows it looming in the east. The extreme cold is set to bring travel chaos to the nation and the Met Office says Wednesday will bring sub-zero temperatures across the whole of the UK.
Hmmm.... Daily Express by any chance???? They were quoted as printing temps of -30 inc windchill when the models were showing the Beasterly a few days ago lol. As regards that purple blob.. it does look familiar..... lol.
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What Model is this from does anyone know? It's on the Daily Mail article but I can't tell which model its of.
That looks like todays or tomorrows chart. Likely GFS.
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It's time to hang on to your hats guys n gals. Eagerly awaiting the 18Z and tomorrows output. I would love to see this Low become a slider and undercut the HP as we progress through the week. That would just be like all my Xmases rolled up into one lol.
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Just caught the Countryfile forecast 20 mins ago. As stressed by the presenter, Susan ... (?) Wed onwards could be subject to some changes, even this close out. What I will say however is that Thur and Fri were shown as having Easterly winds across the northern half of the UK, and westerly winds across the southern half. The LP center was out to the west and it was being stretched out under the high pressure to our East.
The Beeb forecast matches neither the 12Z or the 06Z. Nor the ECM.
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A little something for everyone. Running through the 06, and the 12, I have noticed that the major difference is obv the LP and what happens to said LP, will it eject a shortwave? etc.. What is very consistent is the HP over Siberia strengthening and getting closer.
A look at t.144 demonstrates the difference in the LP progging and the consistency of the Siberian HP cell.
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Fi one for me is at 120- hrs.The rest is up in the air.And right on cue at 240hrs here comes the easterly
Quite so, the key is whether or not the LP spits out a Channel dartboard which undercuts, or whether it stalls and flattens out. Sooooooo tense!!!
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Look at the chart below - sure the weather would be wet and dull here, but with that huge block over Siberia, the potential for massive medium-term changes in the model output are huge. The power of the Atlantic against that block is an immense battle. Somewhere in Europe (in this run, Russia) will see some epic snowfalls. For the moment, it looks like cold short-term, Atlantic mid-term but after that is anyone's guess. The Block has a lot of power...
Agreed if the low develops as progged here, it would not take long for it draw in colder air from the east, north and north west.
Keeping an eye on it at t.144. The low is getting squeezed flat. It could easily undercut. Just need it to be further south.
Compared the the 06Z..
The Low is tilted at a different angle and the Channel low is gone, so not on the same trend as 06 and 18Z post t.72, but, a bigger chance of the low sliding under if we can get it moving further south as the current run has demonstrated it doing.
All I'm going to say is that the time frame post 72 hours is looking very interesting...... watch this space.
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Yes Yes Yes as said by Meg Ryan! Lets have this low further south and have some of that above!
That almost exactly looks like the current output for the exception of this LP system!
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If the 18Z and subsequent runs can drag this low further south then hello mega undercutter..!
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Yep i've seen enough of the 12z. The good news is the SWward shift of the pattern generally, as well as a slightly better angle of attack from the LP (albeit in terms of an initial snow-rain event only a slight improvement upon the 6z), but long may this shift continue
Should we get that continuing for the next 24-48hrs, then we could look more optimistically at the situation towards the end of the week
SK
The center of the Low pressure system has moved south by a good few hundred miles. Another shift like that on the 18Z and the outcome for midweek is going to be very interesting indeed.
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The main Low has migrated further south with a SE-NW tilt at t.63
T.72 already an upgrade! A HP cell over france is modifying the LP air so that we are getting the mix of the two air systems. Cue some snow dumps???
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The first chart was published exactly last week and it shows what this Mondays weather couldve been, the second image is what the 06z is showing for Manday(very likely to verify) from this you can easily see why we shouldnt look beyond 4-5days but the trend has stayed and that was the ridge into Greenland or close to Grenland.
The 12Z is even closer matched for Monday.
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Soooo!! It's nearly time! What will the 12Z say, this time? Will the Russian Bear sweep westwards with mighty roar?Or will the Atlantic depressions produce an audacious last-minute flanking manoeuvre, and derail the White Army's advances?
Who knows! Lets get ready to rumble!
I'm thinking the 12Z will get on board with the 18Z and 06Z.....
(It's my preferential gut feeling driven by my emotional need for epic wintry weather.) -
ECM has good support from it's pressure ensembles more than half of them show the Atlantic weather being weaker like what the models have suggested recently. There still seems to be disagreement over the low that was shown on last nights 18z GFS, the ECM and GFS send it across the far South of the Atlantic and make it go into Europe and fizzle out but the UKMO shows it at 144 hours to head straight into the Atlantic.
The 06 also had it pep up over the channel and take an undercutting route. Leads me to believe the 18Z and 06Z are tracking the same idea.
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I think that's why we only get two days ahead max in the Beeb forecasts. And on the Countryfile update, at day 5, Susan was stressing how things could change to what she was presenting.
What I think will be a big factor on the potential outcome as we enter this week is the Snow cover atm.
The European cover is just epic.
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I know Big Joe B is a bit controversial but another tweet from him.
Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori@Barrowice Euro Winter will be colder than last 3, perhaps coldest since 62-63. Posting on http://Weatherbell.com premium within hour
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I hope he gets a cremation so his ashes can be sent into space!
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Hi quote from UKMO via Ian Fergusson:
Days 8-10, Sun-Tues: Unsettled and often windy with bands of rain crossing the UK, with clearer/showery interludes in between. Still a risk of some snow over high ground at times in the N, mainly Scottish mountains. Temperatures mainly close to average, occasionally mild in the S, but with still a risk of overnight frost in clearer, quieter interludes. EXTREMES COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY: Nil CONFIDENCE: High confidence for cyclonic SW’ly type. Low to medium confidence for the heaviest spells of rain to be across the S and W.
Days 10-15: broad continuation of conditions and synoptics described above with little change expected."
Yes they do.
I didn't think the UKMO put out High confidence assessments for Day 8+.
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Looking forward to see what the 12Z throws our way. I think the 00Z and 12Z are similar in the output atm, while the 06Z and 18Z are together in their ideas. One set of runs will eventually give way to the other.
Off
, But, watching Ice Age atm.... hoping the UK can get in on epic wintry stuff this year. -
If it sets up just right, the cold could come sweeping in from the continent, just along the west side of the UK, and stall. That would be a result.
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Sad day indeed. RIP Sir Patrick.
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We could have zero sunspots in next day or so. Unable to see any new ones rotating into view.
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Check out those fronts building up in the countryfile forecast. 3 in a row!
It's the angle of the breakdown that is most interesting to me, yesterday it was west to east meaning the mild could sweep in much faster but today it looks more like a sw/ne attack which allows cold SEly winds ahead of it and with even more undercut the mild advance could be stopped and even forced south again, it's more on a knife edge today whereas yesterday it looked a foregone conclusion, we will now find out how strong this cold block is going to be. A very interesting week ahead.
Hopefully a 18z or 06z type breakdown. Providing us with an undercutting low.
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Compared to what the models were showing yesterday, that's an upgrade in itself since it showed milder everywhere by thursday, if we have further upgrades the cold block may win. I currently don't see that there can be high confidence in any solution beyond midweek!
Indeed, I said last night, I think the UK could be right in the middle of a mega battleground between the cold to our East and the Atlantic to our west. I don't see any prolonged mild periods in the short to mid term. A mix of cold and cool n wet is most likely.
(It's my preferential gut feeling driven by my emotional need for epic wintry weather.) 
, But, watching Ice Age atm.... hoping the UK can get in on epic wintry stuff this year.
Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by IBringTheHammer
Hmm, would give the northern half of the UK an easterly flow, westerly for the South. But as they're for 8 days out, will be interesting to see how much they're modified. Call it a gut feeling, but I do sense a north/south split with a Low undercutter. The devil is in the detail....