Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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Hope so
Looking pretty chilly to when it comes be nice to get some frosty mornings to go out in when i'm working outdoors Can clearly see the ice, that is holding back the area reading on that map,some lesser pieces of ice between the slightly thicker pieces
There is a line of not so thick ice running from near the Alaska end to north of svalbard?Did you notice the low ice concentrations on the East coast of the UK??
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Will be looking forward to the ECM. On it's earlier run it threw up a northern low at t.192
Will be interesting to see where it came from and if it keeps it in its next run.
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Nice to see Scandi starting to fill in. Hopefully, the UK will get it's first white pixel or two next weekend!
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It would be good to see the models go with a sustained HP scenario as we get closer to next weekend.
Having been away for a few days I've only had a chance to look at todays 06Z and 12Z GFS runs. Could it be that as we start this week, the models pick up on possible scenario where the HP decides to become stationary keeping us under a sustained northerly flow?
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With the forecast for next weekend turning cold for the UK, it will give this side of the Arctic a chance to see some sustained ice growth.
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Some very tasty charts to open winter proper with from the CFS Daily:
All just eye candy for now, but always nice to look at!
The GFS isn't letting go of that overall pattern.
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What is def certain is the settled period with warmer temps from this weekend. If I was going on gut hunch, I would suggest the Polar blast would be odds on over anything else 06Z has shown. It's just a gut feeling mide you so I will watching the runs over the next day or so.
Personally, I'm looking forward to a dry spell after all the rain we've had.
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I'm at work so only brief - after a quick glance Is the 6z falling more into line with the ECM?
Havn't seen the whole run but it's not so eager to bring in the polar blast. Will have to see the next few runs before we can say for sure what is the more likely outcome.
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Huge ice bride from Siberia to Greenland now. Ice increase was huge.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
Snow across the Alps and Scandi has picked up over the last few days.
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Extreme or not, you have to hand it to the GFS, it is definitly on a roll regarding a trend. The last few days have seen a very similar pattern emerge of a slight warming this weekend followed by a HP taking up recidence over the N.Atlantic/Greenland.
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Ok, so far it seems that the majority of members on Netweather are predicting a Winter of mixed fortunes with a "bit of everything" thrown into the mix.
Close behind that, a Scandi blocked winter is joint second favourtie with a Greenland/Atlantic blocked winter, however if you combine the votes into a generic blocked vote, then it edges ahead of the "Bit of Everything" scenario by 4 votes.
Some sporadic votes for a Atlantic dominated winter and the Euro high suggest not many members are forecasting these setups this year.
While not very scientific, it does show a split decision on what many members are expecting this winter.#
As for personal preferences, the blocked winter scenario is clear favourite with Epic Winter running in second. I suspect there are either many cold and snow fans on here, or everyone is sick tired of wind and rain.
I'll post again at the end of next week.
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Thanks, still wasnt able to positively identify it as lots of those spiders look similair. I would say if it's not of the widow species then it looks damn close to it.
I read about how the false widow bites are like wasp stings and though rarely fatal, can put some people in A&E. There is also the possibility that the black widow may one day get a foot hold in the UK. There are plenty of news articles about Black Widows being imported in on goods/vehicles etc. So how many make it over and go undetected?
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That 308k record is up for grabs me thinks.
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Sure, they are not great, the camera is pants. You can really only get a sense of the size and shape of it.
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Hey guys, hoping someone on here is a spider fan. Long story short, need help identifying a spider.
After reading about the False Widow Spider in Britain, I think I found a small colony on my west facing skylight.
This is the closest image on google I could find to what I found. My own images where on a phone camera and not very clear. It's the same shape, almost identical markings (Perhaps a little darker in color) and had a single dark stripe on the underside of its abdomen. It also had orange/brown banded legs. Was appx. 1. - 1.5 cm (excluding legs) Abdomen was larger compared to rest of body than in this photograph (Suggesting female).
I found at least 8 - 10 egg sacks which I've tried to remove as much of.
Thanks guys.
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Who is this Big Joe? Can he elaborate on his statements?
Joe laminate floori
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i watched that video it showed a blocked Atlantic and Greenland in their August chart but their latest one from from September towards the end of the video clearly showed no blocking over Greenland in fact they were going for lower than normal pressure values in that area..in fact listening to the guy it seemed he was covering all basis saying it could be mild but also it could be cold at the same time...maybe that's because last winter they got it totally 100% wrong!
Lol maybe, but I got the impression that he was personally favoring the August chart.
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The angle of that line is good viewing at the moment, it's almost vertical
Can it continue?It's the proverbial "Bawhair" away from passing 2007.
From mid September, it has been following more or less the same gradient as the 2008 plot.
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Accuwather were favoring a blocked Greenland/Atlantic this winter according the video I posted several pages back., they didn't go into details though.
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Here you go!
I have never seen it like that before!
The Jet has some serious amplitude going on there.
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Another massive gain in extent today for IJIS, this time a jump of 237k! Leaving us just 50k behind 2007.
That's 133k/day average over the last week.
Nice. Could we beat 2005's October one day increase of 304k this year? That would be impressive.
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We almost have a bridge now from siberia/Kamchatka to main ice should we expect very rapid growth now it is getting close to land on both sides of siberia?
No reason not to. The sun has gone down on the pole now I believe, so it will only be getting colder up there.
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Just a quick one and to continue to wet the appetite, but the monthly update of the EUROSIP (some info on it here - http://t3projects.zm.../TStockdale.pdf) seasonal model for October which combines the ECMWF, Met Office and MeteoFrance data, does signal higher pressure to the N and NW of the UK as a +ve pressure anom throughout D/J/F. It isn't a strong signal, but compared with the ECMWF seasonal it is totally different and supports a far more blocked pattern to the N and NW of the UK in particular throughout the winter. The average temperature for the UK is approx 0.5C to 1C below average according to this model as well, but I would take that with a decent pinch of salt.
The broader importance is the signal for higher pressure in the 'right' areas...
Interesting times.
M.
Clearly illustrated on the 00Z GFS run this morning, albeit, in deep FI.
Looking pretty chilly to when it comes be nice to get some frosty mornings to go out in when i'm working outdoors 
Model Output Discussion 12z 18/10/2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Anytime the -5 Isotherm passess overhead is a chance for low level snowfall. That said, the chances are probably lower during Autumn than in winter. The Weather from thur/fri onwards is as already mentioned, looking very good for the ski resorts, which is, if Im being honest, at this early stage, all I'm concerned with.
The output looks good. If it continues into winter, then we may well get a good start to winter this year. I'm still favouring an overall blocked winter over the Atlantic/Greenland.