Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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How about adding an option for a mixture of everything?
I see no option for me who'd like a winter with a few very cold snowy periods lasting a week or so with other times milder Atlantic based weather - or even some pleasant sunshine under a Euro high situation.
Exciting & fun as extreme cold can be for a short while if it goes on too long its just costly & damages our economy even more. I'm sure many of us would rather spend our money on things for ourselves instead of handing it over to Russian gas company owner billionaires...
Ok, option added... "A bit of Everything". Votes can be recast if members wish.
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Only 8K off your avg of 160K that you thought was required to catch 07. Not bad. If we can catch 07 by next weekend that would be a result.
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I will be waiting until the 24th of Dec before I call this one lol.
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Ok, so I'm rebooting this poll, but with a twist. I'm inviting everyone to pick their prediction for the upcoming winter. It can be a wild guess or gut hunch, but I'd prefer it to be more of a forecast based vote (If you have a forecast) giving members an opportunity to see what all those with the experience are forecasting for the upcoming winter.
Secondly, a poll to see what members on here desire for the upcoming winter weather.
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There was a snow event on the 30th Ocotober (I think it was the 30th). Brought a meter of snow to the peaks of cairngorm etc, but as was the pattern last year, it was gone within the week. I do also remember Madden jumping on that event as a precursor to his "Epic" winter.
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A dusting of white stuff on the likes of Cairngorm and Glencoe mountain today.
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The HP developing to the North East could bring some very decent high ground snow. The low pressure moving in at the end is an unwelcome sight. Could it shift away to the south east? I hope so, I would quite easily settle for some quieter weather for a couple of weeks after the misery of the this years washout.
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*Cough Cough* Can anyone say blocking pattern? This is from the 00Z Run .
And these are from last nights 18Z Run.
Notice the similar pattern emerging of HP just off South West Greenland. This is a pattern that "Hopefully" will continue to develop. I know they say don't compare one run from the next, but as it's within 7 days, it's worth keeping an eye on. The 00Z run really develops the HP system to bring in a lovely ridge of blocking to our north, putting us under an Easterly.
Now don't go getting your hopes up too much, this trend could very well just disappear, BUT, if it does develop, depending on the specifics, we could get some decent high ground snowfall. One to keep an eye out for, and an example of what I would very much like to see come the winter.
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Blue doing well, Red not!
First chance of snow away from tallest mountains monday?Hmm, high ground only. Anything below 1000m is likely to be sleet or very cold rain.
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First easterly of the season emerging???
Nope. Dont think it is. And at that far out, it will be gone next run.
Part 4 already!
I think alot of the excitement is down to the fact that no one knows if we are in a new period of colder than avg winters (More frequently) or not. I think after the period from the late 80's through to the early 2000's winter became a bit boring. It was more a case of.. "Will we get snow this winter?". Now it's more like ... "How much snow and how cold will it get?"
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We are half way through the month now and I didn't think we would get this close to the 2007 plot. I thought it was a bit ambitious to catch it by now, but, it's done remarkably well.
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Some more good Ice gains too. Heading over to the Arctic Ice thread to check for figures.
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National Grid have published their winter outlook document. They don't go into much detail regards weather but they do summarize what they are being told.
Weather7. The Met Office has ceased publication of their long term winter weather forecast. The
Met Office web site contains a short description of the weather up to 30 days ahead3
and guidance for contingency planners up to 3 months ahead4. The latest 3 month
outlook for October to December forecasts an increased risk of colder than average
weather.
8. Last winter’s weather illustrated the variability of winter weather. It was close to
seasonal normal for the 3 months from December to February but the second
warmest in National Grid’s 84 year weather history for the 6 months from October to
March. February 2012 was average for the whole month but this was split into cold
weather for the first two weeks and warm weather for the last two weeks.
9. Early warning of severe weather can be obtained from month-ahead ensemble
forecasts. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts5 specialises
in producing these forecasts. Products based on them are available from a number of
weather service providers. Fifty separate forecasts are produced showing the range
of possibilities. The greater the number of forecasts showing the same outcome, the
greater the possibility of that outcome.
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Ice is also forming around the Siberian coastline now.
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The first bit of litter on Mars.... ^^^^^^
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Can see clear ice forming around the Siberian coastline which is good news!
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We just need the snow to move west as soon as possible now.
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If I was a betting man (Which I have been known to do), I would stake a fiver on Bastadi.
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read it again barry. its getting cold at the top (no sh*t sherlock, its mid october) but its also showing warming forecast lower down which, if verifying, would help disrupt vortex formation in the trop.
Very possibly all that extra heat stored in the water up north having an effect in the upper atmosphere as some have said. If we do get a SSW event, I would say the record Ice melt has had a hand in it.
And as mentioned above, the GFS is proging a very messy vortex out in FI. Will have to keep checking the charts as we get closer to November to see if the models continue this trend or if the Vortex starts to tank the red bull.
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Joe B is the biggest Anit-AGW man I am aware off. Just follow his twitter feed. Personally, I think it's nothing more than natural global warming, part of a long natural cycle.
Back on topic though, the models have been picking up on some interesting signals over the last while. The coming winter could bear much fruit I believe.
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Dry and Yorkshire lol
Cold and Wet... I dont care what the weather man says lol.
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GFS in FI now showing some early winter-like uppers over the UK. Its getting closer guys.
The 06Z run was showing a lovely northerly flow at the end of it's run today with HP over Greenland/N.Atlantic
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What max temperatures would we be looking at if that happens.Probably around 5 - 8 Deg? Depends on location and weather.
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Good to see Scandi snow cover boosted!
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a litle unfair to the man-yes he is a cold ramper but he does talk over the charts to explain why he feels the weather will do as he predicts. Totally unlike the other loon in my view
Joe B posted a tweet a few days ago which referenced http://iceagenow.info He was banging on about the UK being in for a heck of a winter in the tweet so it probably does present Joe B as a bit of a winter ramper.
First chance of snow away from tallest mountains monday?
Model Output Discussion October 2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by IBringTheHammer
It's that damned low pressure.!! The overall pattern is still there, we just need the models to send it south and east.
06Z
00Z
The 06Z has reverted back to more like the 18Z.