Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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Trips to norway and europe would be cheaper, just rent our own skidoo snowmobiles Lol!
A big Kite and a snowboard!
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Just to add, my main wish this year is that the Polar vortex sets up shop over the UK. Too much to ask??
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Wow
getting quite a head of steam up now, 2008 had quite a sharp uprise after 2007's low extent as well maybe no coincidence?.I was thinking the same, especially as we don't get sst's that cold in the north sea ever, even when we got down to -20 in 2010, in the depths of winter
never mind October I'm sticking to IJIS and nsidc for now .If the Ice Agers are to be believed, it won't be long until the sea freezes up around the UK
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I'll take a punt at 5.3C
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You forgot.... MODEL P*RN,
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Here is chart of the day to cheer people up. A real boxing day **** up to celebrate this if it occured.
WTF is going on there lol.
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-is that Bodie, 007?
-no its Doyle M
ROFL!
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Video blog from MetO today regarding forecasted Cold Spell this weekend.
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/22/turning-colder-this-weekend/
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Video blog from MetO today regarding forecasted Cold Spell
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/22/turning-colder-this-weekend/
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The large extent increases continue on IJIS, with a 177,188km2 jump yesterday up to 6,610,469km2. With both 2011 and 2007 less than 100k behind, there can be no slow down if we want to finish the month anything other than lowest on record.
Quietly confident we can maintain a comfortable margin over 11 and 07.
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I am hoping for a cold winter this year, extreme snow events mixed with some milder interludes - bliss! (then I woke up with my head in my cornflakes)... I think we may have a better shot at some good snow events this year though based on current projections from the more knowledgable, and I am looking forward to the roller-coaster that the MD thread becomes!
You've missed the train, it has already left the station lol.
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As long as I get to use my snowboard at home this year.. I will be happy.
Edit: 500 posts
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'Incidentally, GFS and ECM long range 30hPa temperature forecasts maintain -70C or -75C values for early November over the Pole, which is average or slightly above average for that time of year.' - GP.
Winters not over.
Winter hasn't begun yet lol.
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You have to say hats off to the gfs over the last week or so.
First to spot the Northerly and first to spot the Greeny high not being as dominant.
I mean last night it was every model v gfs and the gfs was right!!
We don't know that is right yet. They could all change tack by tomorrow. But it was the first to spot the cold shot.
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i haven't relooked at the ecm runs from the weekend but there was a theme for the scandi trough to push energy sw towards us as a result of the greeny ridge being sharper and more defined. maybe a good time to reflect that ecm op seems to have a bias towards greeny ridges being overstated which has a consequence of more wintry charts for nw europe. i have a feeling this could be a recurring theme this winter so possibly a good time for us to be reminded of this bias. lets hope when winter comes we have a more meridional flow off the eastern seaboard to blow up the ridge.
Am I right in thinking that if that LP in the Atlantic can migrate North West(ish), it would be beneficial for the HP sticking around for longer, producing a longer lasting northerly?
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The euro's tonight give us something to work with, a much colder snap than the gfs is showing and it's only monday so still lots of time to fine tune the pattern in the next few days before we know for sure, little pesky lows that appear on one run can disappear on the next run.
Exactly, I pointed out earlier that one run from the GFS a few days ago had the LP in the Atlantic kick out a shortwave which completely toppled the Cold spell prospects. Next run, it was gone. ECM also had a shortwave above the UK a few days ago. It too is gone now.
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I can see a special corner being set up for people who are accused of being Doylem, like it is a contagious disease haha! "No Doylems allowed!"
Well said BobbyDog, but I think it's def on for a cold spell this weekend, how deep and lasting its is, is another question entirely.
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"You're Doylem!", "No I'm not, you are!"
Is this thread going to get a part 5?
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UKMO still maintaining more of a northerly flow out at t.120. Hoping the rest of the models trend towards the UKMO for some prolonged cold and high level snow come the weekend.
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Lets not forget that the Italian justice system is probably the most corrupt and inept in western Europe. I'm pretty sure this would get squashed in the ECHR with a solid backhand.
It's pretty shocking.
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Those lows always chop and change from run to run. It was only a few days ago that the LP in the Atlantic was progged to throw off a shortwave and scupper the entire prospect of a cold snap.
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Once the cold and snow get here, you're all invited to my bar.....
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IMS showing the Ice almost sealing off the northern Siberian coast with Ice. Should be sealed up in a few days time. Northern Canada also received a nice dumping of snow.
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The destination of the cold shot is still in the balance. It won't be until wed morning before we get a firm grasp of how the northerly behaves and what is likely to happen thereafter. Prognosis is still looking very good for some frostiness and high level snow. But can we hold on to it for a sustained period? This is going to be an interesting few days.
never mind October 
Model Output Discussion 12z 18/10/2012
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Just out of curiosity, is that the Jet Stream in the Med??