Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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Here's last years chart for this date, for comparison.
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hello....
yesterday...
That's a nice dumping of white stuff. Sea Ice extent up to 8.26 million sq KM. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
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Lets just hope it doesn't get 'locked up' with a strong PV this winter. Otherwise it will be a loooooong desperate winter of chart model watching.
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Arctic Ice sitting at 4,809,288 today. Only 9288 from falling below 4.8Million SqKM
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That comparison is like night and day lol.. the Siberian side of the Ice pack def seems to be the coldest atm.
Having said that, todays image shows some rather decent Melting of the Ice. Where the Ice pack touched land yesterday, it's retreated somewhat.
The freshly frozen ice around the edges would still appear to be susceptible to the weather.
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I always post this video, every year. As it really gets me in the mood for winter!
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The Maunder Minimum lasted for 70 years and that seems to be where we're headed.
http://www.leif.org/research/apjl2012-Liv-Penn-Svalg.pdf
"By extrapolating our sunspot formation fraction to the predicted peak of Cycle 24 (in mid-2013) the sunspot formation fraction would be approaching 0.5. This suggests a rather small SSN for this cycle, in agreement with some recent Cycle 24 predictions (Svalgaard et al. 2005; Hathaway 2012). And while there is no physical mechanism which suggests that we should extrapolate further, it is fascinating to see that the sunspot formation fraction would drop below 0.2 by 2020. This would suggest that although magnetic flux would be erupting at the solar surface during Cycle 25, only a small fraction of it would be strong enough to form visible sunspots or pores. Such behavior would be highly unusual, since such a small solar maximum has not been observed since the Maunder Minimum. During that period from roughly 1645 to 1715, few sunspots were observed, although cosmic-ray studies suggest the Sun did have a functioning magnetic activity cycle (Usoskin et al. 2001); this is consistent with the scenario provided by our fit extraolation. A recent study of sunspot records suggests that the Maunder Minimum began with two small sunspot cycles with roughly the same amplitude as predicted by our extrapolation for Cycle 25 (Vaquero et al. 2011). Finally, it is interesting to note that there seems to be a strange lack of the normal precursors for Cycle 25 as observed with helioseismic and coronal emission line indicators (Hill et al. 2011; Altrock 2011)."
Interesting times ahead alright, but I'm not personally convinced that we are heading into the freezer. Will be fun watching, though.
Us Solar Watchers have been banding this info around for the past 3-4 years now. It will always be met with criticism from those that don't support the ideas above, but, like others have said...only time will tell.
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I'm assuming that what actually has occurred is that for a very brief period during the night, it was cold enough for some slushy type sleet to fall from the skies near the summit of Cairngorm Mt.
The only thing tabloids are good for is.... wiping ones own A*** after right good number 2.
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And so it begins.... hehe
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Snow level down to 2000m on the Austrian/ Swiss border. Picture of the Madrisa mountain in back ground viewed from Gargellen in the Voralberg looking towards Klosters and Davos area.
NICE!
http://www.snoweye.com/ <--- Over 5000 Cameras from ski resorts.
http://webtv.feratel.com/webtv/?design=960p&pg=519378F0-A62A-49E4-8095-B30D2BB58829&cam=5692
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Don't the models err on the side of caution for the LR stuff? Settling for a 'best fit' scenario? Meaning that what we end up with could be colder/snowier or milder/wetter than whats currently being shown.
If so, then the CFS could be underplaying the extent of the 'Average' start to winter.......
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Yes and i'm sure most people in scotland are not looking forward to 70-80 mph winds ripping roofs off and uprooting trees still in full leaf, not to mention potential flooding due to torrential rain.
Scotland never floods
We bottle it and sell it lol...-
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i can see 3 even without my glasses on
Lol, compared with normal spots, they are tiny and I was merely emphasizing the smallness of them lol
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The first snowfall across the munros next week!!
Lovely charts Robbie, can I book them please!!!
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Just watched the Beeb weather forecast... Potentially the first major Autumn storm this sunday.
It looked a lot more dramatic on TV lol.
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Ice pack showing signs that the melt has 'bottomed out'? While more snow across Russia and northern Canada.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif
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Well for me it's about heat being retained deep in the oceans and redistributed over time, he is certainly spot on with regards to the two hundred years of fairlyhigh levels of solar activity. I relish the upcoming hypothesis Pete, at least there can be no further arguments as to which plays the greater role.
I've always been an advocate for the sun being the main influencer/driver. The only question for me is, how much lag is there between the suns activity and its effects on the earths weather.
Then, of course we need to ask, how is human influence augmenting the suns effects.....?
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Well, the winter of 09/10 was preceded by 260 days of spotless solar activity. We are now almost spotless (again if you use laymans, it is already at 0) The latest solar disk shows two teency weency spots you would need to dig you magnifying glass out for.
I follow Joe B on twitter and unlike some other forecasters, his stuff is at least based in science. How accurate he proves to be, well, only time will tell.
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I still maintain we're in the cycle of 3 cold winters to 1 mild atm. At least for the next 5 years. So, more chance of an average to cold winter with at least one cold/snow event. Last winter had it all, freeze/snow, thaw then epic freeze/snow at the end of winter.
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Sunspot count is almost at 0, or is 0 if you use laymans count. If the solar max continues to fizzle out, it could have an effect on this years winter weather?
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The fact still remains that Greenland is still a net loser of ice in 2013 despite relatively cool summer.
If Greenland lost it's ice sheets then that would be a disaster for sea levels if i'm not mistaken? The arctic sea ice melting actually lowers sea levels i believe, whereas, if Greenland were to become ice free, sea levels would rise considerably.
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I can honestly say that I don't pay enough attention to the science regarding climate change, but I do know the Joe Bastardi is constantly tweeting Anti-AGW stuff. Citing various different resources etc and bashing the AGW subscribers.
I feel this is a debate that will run and run for some time yet.
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^^^ Woah, I bet those journalists feel like they just got torn a new one lol... Embarrassing. ^^^
We bottle it and sell it lol...
Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Indeed, the earlier and bigger the gains, the better. Better to have a white Nrth Hemp as early as possible so we're not playing catch up come December.