edo
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Posts posted by edo
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It is a cross between Sleet Rain and Hail and snow out in rural Perthshire in the Cleish area.
Been a boring year to say the least, the quietest of my 12 years on netweather.
Here's hoping for some interesting weather.
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absolutely hee haw made it through as far as here, the radar is a liar a liar I tell you.
Let's hope the pattern the GFS been hinting at looking to bring in has some legs.
I did say last year if I only got one spell like we did last February I would be happy and I do mean that so fingers crossed for that one proper snowy cold spell.
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watching a blob aswell wondering and hoping.... Still not seen a flake... another 10 mins or so and should know if I will see flakes or if the bulb is to wet
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grauple here is the best mustered and now very cold rain.... put shopping for mums birthday present and just wandering aimlessly with no clue. January birthdays are so bad
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florida wow.... Nice move.... florida actually had snow last weekend, some places were 79c one day and had snow less than 24 hours later... been some crazy temp variants in states last few days.
As always in this set up dry as a bone here so well jel of the North contingent bit great pics.
The radar teases you aswell with the predictive always thinking showers will make it but sadly don't.
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amazingly there are some flakes falling here.... looking a bit meh for a while though in the medium term.
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Definitely still some legs in the chase. Certainly maybe now setting up a jam tomorrow scenario for some and still looking like a cold frstive weekend for us. I was going to say Mogreps trending colder again quite a big signal but then if signalling warm yesterday what's the point.... to sound like an MT poster
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cracking pup @Mair Snaw could be some chilly nights standing in the garden in yer baffies waiting for it to go pee pee. @Scepticalsome trolling u have been doing in the MT.... very stealthy
good summary from @Scottish-Irish SkierI am given up trying to see what it's going to do.... im now thinking freezing crisp and clear and that will do just fine.
I've had reports of small flurries up in Aberfeldy earlier on with a dusting.
The pub run has been a sobering one tonight and it appears a full wake is currently taking place.
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excellent analysis @A Winter's TaleI completely agree re the front and fully expect flurries from the e/ne that would bring a technical white Xmas to some. The romantic in me hopes everything fast forwards 12 hours and peps up unexpectedly and delivers on a wider scale but that's hope casting however the way things have been going with the models nothing would surprise me be 10c or - 10c
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I still feel there is a decent chance of some seeing a white Xmas, model volatility is order of the day but scotland consistently looking on the cold side.... fingers crossed
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wow @Puffy MacCloudyour a superstar and hopefully be on the mend......
an all to familiar tale these days. It pales into insignificance but last year amidst severe toothache i was advised they couldnt drill due to covid rules on NHS and my tooth would need to be removed.......but i could go private for treatment and save the tooth as that was allowed. So because i was fortunate enough to afford private my tooth was saved. Makes me angry to think of others not so lucky.
Charts looking fab as AWT has eloquently expained above, as someone near to the east starting to dream kids could see first white xmas.
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1 hour ago, A Winter's Tale said:
GFS 00z shows a shift north for Christmas but still showing a white Christmas for many - though we can’t afford another shift northwards. A very good run 28th December onwards.
The ECM on the other hand shows a southward shift which has raised the spirits of members south of the border in the model thread. Still showing a white Christmas for much of Scotland away from the south west with estimated depths generally in the range of 2-5cm. The main snow risk for Christmas in the Midlands. The easterly also returns from the 24th-26th. It remains cold and blocked to the end of the run with the potential fur very low temperatures with slack heights during day 9/10.
in this clearly complex scenario how close do you think it needs to be to Dec25 before we have an actual clear idea what's likely to be happening? 72 or 48 or even 24. I don't mean where will snow if at all but rather how far north/south everything is.
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7 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:
Definitely an interesting period ahead.
My main concern is that the eastern winds will be travelling across a relatively warm North Sea, and that may ruin the chances of seeing snow for eastern areas (Edinburgh included). I think we’d need at least uppers of -8 to guarantee snowfall.
plenty of runs have had that the last few days, temp of sea would aid convection so a risk/reward scenario.
great post AWT love looking at year comparisons
my lowly educated thoughts remains the same that 23rd still looks like the start of the cold spell and 3 options remain on the table
cold/foggy
bright/dry
lots of snow
some real tasty perbs out there though.....hows this for xmas eve
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For any Scottish members reading the Model Thread this morning do not be alarmed by the comments.
The attached chart I have highlighted to explain the reasons for such messages throwing toys out of prams even although the weather for even far south still every chance of being wintry of not nirvana.
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fooks sake Puffy not good.......dont get me started on some of the treatment issues in this pandemic....dont give up make sure you and any family members hound your practice until you get the treatment/care required.
a spot on summary AWT and the pub run has thrown out another severe run again providing a likely decent convective event on the big day. Every run today pretty much says snow for scotland and less and less dry scenarios.
To help everyone here lets hope for a strong convective option followed by a stalling low in from the west.
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yes tonight all roads lead to rome pretty much.... we all know though at still over a week away take it at caution.
-12 uppers Xmas day though
and those thicknesses.... can but dream
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oh and nice idea @shuggee winner gets to put an emoji trophy next to their username
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yes @Kirkcaldy Weatherbeen avidly reading the thread......even enjoying it now having muted the most annoying posters..... latest being that jules character who seems like he may throw himself in front of a train due to a 10 day prediction of -2 uppers.
Looking even better now on the 23rd which is the date i have been tracking for what i see as the true start of the cold spell but i may be refining that date to earlier. Promising signs continuing.
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Min Temp -4c
Max Temp 2
Morning (00:00 - 12:00) frosty clear
Afternoon (12:00 - 00:00) frost lifts slightly then bitterly cold quickly after dark and some wintry showers blowing in off a slack easterly.
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the models continue to take steps towards a cold outcome, still too early for confidence as to a snowy spell..... here we can see as early as 23rd the cold air start to flow towards us. I am almost at 80 per cent confidence it will be cold and seasonal for xmas day which is remarkable this far out. Thats mainly because everything says high pressure over us at that point....always a risk could be gloomy but im quietly confident.
Could do with kirkcaldy, ravelin, catch, LS, SS, etc giving some views ... lorenzo too and where is Mr Frost and Hairy Celt.... really hope they are ok.
funny story puffy made me laugh
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Dangerous frost/ice here with pavements treacherous walking the dog. Charts continue to point to cold starting a week from now and with some luck and upgrades maybe some will be able to dream of a white xmas.
Im in a panic as the kids missed out on trip to man city march 2020 and had rebooked for boxing day this year, now im starting to fear either restrictions or game being off due to covid or now maybe snow in the mix too.
Health and wellbeing more important but cant imagine their poor wee faces if dont get this time
Hope u feel better soon Puffy and get something interesting to watch out that window.
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On 09/12/2021 at 22:00, Ravelin said:
I'd to go pick my son up from Insch about an hour ago and it was 1-2C there and back in heavy sleet and wet snow. Not really lying even at the highest point of the road but loads of surface water again.
4 new all season tyres fitted to my new car earlier, I was always going to do it but the snow around storm Arwen convinced me the sooner the better as the summers on it were awful. After years of having a 4WD with all seasons it's going be interesting to see how I fare with a 2WD if its a snowy winter.
Let's hope we find out, might actually be better for those quick getaways from members Houses
Some decent model agreement on HP setting up as we head towards Xmas which should at the very least give us some coldish and frosty seasonal conditions that would suit many.
A great post from our very own @Kirkcaldy Weatherin the MT who is proving quite adept at seeing the future.
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On 07/12/2021 at 10:02, Penicuikblizzard said:
I never get too excited over a snow to rain event
nope its the worst, don't think even looks particularly stormy here.... has the makings of a simple horrible windy rainy late afternoon/night
really hoping can get some high pressure and cold frosty nights for Xmas week and then snow events after Xmas whilst on holiday.... thats my Santa wish
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yup so icy jerked my back several times walking the dog, everything shiny and slippy.... if only tomorrow was a low level event would be a buzzing thread.... here's hoping for some wintry charts for Xmas time and that I can find someplace to hide all the Xmas presents from @Ravelin
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Scotland Weather discussion
in Scottish Weather Discussion
Posted
Yes pretty flat as you come up the a90 to Perth, Perth itself gets up above 100m at highest part and just a few miles up the road it's over 100m.