SnowObsessor90

It looks like your concerns were well founded on this, as I said personally I was never going to duped again by the models after their previous form this winter, one day they'll be time where we'll see good looking synoptics actually verify again ala 2010 i'm sure but I think it's fair to say that it's not going to be within the next 9 months at the very least, I just hope that we won't be waiting too long. I mean come this December it'll be 3 years on from our last noteworthy cold spell....

But true to form it still throws us something right at the end however.

Well I thought that it was definitely over full stop a few days ago so for my sanity it's probably best if I try I stick with that mindset rather be let down for the umpteenth time!

Those living in the south west certainly wouldn't agree with you......

As I've said I'm happy enough with that outlook considering that we never really in the frame for anything to begin with, still it's sort of a shame that most likely won't see get any Snow against that blue sky backdrop but ah well perhaps we'll have a better chance of seeing something like that next winter when heights finally do find their way to Greenland for once (fat chance)!

It's good to know that I'm not only who noticed this, thought I was looking at it all wrong for a bit there, not that matters seeing as it's FI and on the the 18z..., will start to become more interested if this and what was hinted at by the ECM 12z earlier becomes a consistent running trend though as you say.

I'm assuming that the GFS FI does nothing but reaffirm the strong west based - NAO trend going by the lack of comments.....

As much as IB has gotten stick for it I think to say but the more modern type weather pattern tendencies have had an impact on this winter as you bet your bottom doller that we wouldn't have had quite this many near misses back in the old days. Don't really hold out much hope for next two seasons either given these factors, it'll probably be yet another Greenland high dominated summer followed by a raging Zonal Bartlett type pattern next winter, see this forecasting malarky isn't really so hard when you think about lol

I personally wouldn't bank on that, I was under the assumption that last spring being wet would be a good omen for the summer to follow but in reality it was anything but lol

As someone commented in the MOD thread this fast starting to look like an early December 2012 type setup with high pressure sat over us followed by the Atlantic invariably taking charge not too long after but ah well never mind it's not as if this so called 'easterly' was ever going to be really anything other than the dry and cold variety for us anyway (not that I'm complaining from a sunny and frosty POV obviously) , it simply means that those further east won't be getting anything either lol

Could the GFS have had this right to begin with? as the more this trend continues the more it looks that's the sort of direction we're heading in....

I'll ask the question again, would it? Failing any more snow or a prolonged nationwide freeze (which I realise was probably never going to be a realistic prospect anyway) I really would like to see a cool/cold sunny and frosty spell to see out the winter as we really haven't seen much in the way of that this year.

Okay I was started to get all excited about the output this morning then I realised that I live in the North West I really have think seriously about moving to somewhere further east one day.

Would the latest ECM 12z bring sunshine and frosts for us under the influence of high pressure? or am I looking at it wrong?

Seems odd in the MOD when IB seems to be generally more upbeat about cold prospects than several others, not quite sure whether that's a good or a bad thing.

I have to say I'm come along with your line of thinking, the prospect of a rinse and repeat of last months synoptics doesn't exactly overwhelm me tbh especially given that the lengthening daylight hours which will only serve to anything lying quicker.

Well other than that it seems to be mostly dry and cold/cool with us under the influence of high pressure, as you say it is most likely to be wrong due to the differences in the earlier time frames but still I'd take that over another eventual Atlantic breakdown.

The ECM is still good on face of it but as has been pointed once you start to loose some of those solid foundations the margin for error becomes ever so lower, we got lucky last Jan in that respect with a few decent frontal events and even then the snowcover started melting at the first opportunity due to it not being overly cold, personally I'd prefer something more locked in and prolonged, that way everybody benefits.

To be fair I think some peoples concerns are quite justified, I mean how many ECM runs this winter suggesting robust blocking have actually come anywhere to fruition? Exactly

Oh why did I have to open my big mouth, the ideas gone on the latest run

One of the things the latest GFS sort of reminds me of is last Feb when we failed to get enough energy going underneath and in the end it was just a rather tame affair with with a big high sat over us which inevitably flattened, is there any chance that we could possibly have a scenario like that again?

Indeed, what we would require after getting to that point is a retrogression towards Greenland which has been talked about a lot this winter but never actually happened, could we finally get those sort of synoptics which have thus far alluded us just as the season is on it's dying embers? fingers crossed...

Perhaps 'going of on one' was the wrong choice of phrase, maybe 'going overboard' would have more appropriate which you do have to admit it has done on quite few occasions this season, do hope it's right though

Well the GFS remains bullish from it's 12z run of it's idea of an early spring, probably more even as high pressure remains in SITU well into FI, can't but help feeling that the ECM has gone on one again.

Looks I'll be going out to have another snow walk tomorrow, it'll be nice to take a few more wintry pics to add my collection