jonnybradley

Has it worked....... ??? Fantastic! Thanks weathermaster. Should have thought about the attach tool (dumb ass) Much appreciated thanks for taking the time to put that together for me!!! Jon

Hi, Can anyone tell me how to create thumbnail images in a post, like in JACKONE's alp forecast Many thanks Jon

Only been at this for a while but I can't see 18z coming to much. As others have said anything t90+ just seems like guess work at the moment. Is GFS broken?

[bump] Bit dead in here? No change so far I guess. T81 GFS Yeah precipitation charts are not the most reliable but this has been in the models for the last couple of days. The pressure charts show a NW wind so this coming from one of the lows blowing across north UK. This should at least be a start to the snow base and give some snow to most resorts. Looks like high pressure could be returning into the end of next week! Lets hope it doesn't stay to long

Great read John. I for one really appreciate the efforts of yourself and others on here that do try to explain things to newbies like myself who really don't have a clue Interesting that the Azeros high still seems to be having such an effect on where these systems track. At least this is one feature I can easily pick up on, even if I don't full understand its impact. Thanks

I know this has already been discussed in this thread but thought it was worth posting the link again, especially after Nick's last post. Sorry to those that have already seen it. It relates to Sat 3rd but seems related to me? I think this is the link to that thread, very interesting thread (even if I did only understand it in parts:)

Sorry to keep asking questions.... What is the thinking on the PV, ie how long could it last and what would/could cause it to shift? Again untrained eye but we seem to be caught in a new pattern with highs out to our south and the PV

Good post John and thanks for the heads up. Just wondering which thread you are referring to? is it the "29th November - 6th December 2011 Atlantic Storms", hell am off to read it anyhow if not, looks interesting.

I base this on nothing other than a bad feeling but can see this high moving back over Europe, replacing the high thats been stuck there for the last how ever many weeks now

Sorry meant to say SE!

Thanks for the reply Nick F. There there does seem to be a high building in the Atlantic again (Azores?). As MSB said the current models do have it tracking more SW but as others have said this is in FI and where it ends up no body knows.

Noob here again! The models certainly are looking more interesting. Most seem to be stacking these low pressure systems out in the Atlantic and seemingly disturbing the high pressure sitting over Europe into next week as they pass north of the UK. Could this at last be bringing some Precipitation to the European ski resorts?

Yep seeing the same thing. Most of the models show a low coming into northern UK at t+96 and getting pushed down into Europe. Lets hope this comes off. Certainly something to keep an eye on!!! Anybody else got thoughts on how this might develop?

I have not been following the models long but they seem to keep putting patten changes into the 192hrs onwards (espacialy GFS) and just holding it out at this range whilst the highs over euro keep winning out!!! As you say Nick they seem to over play the incursions into the high pressers over Europe to much. The only patten that seems constant is my outlook, changing from dispare to anger, resignation to hope and back to dispare again! Am very fearful for the European Ski resorts, for selfish reason as well as for all those that relies on weather for their livelihoods. Really enjoying reading all the posts here even if it is somwhat depressing. Have learned loads all ready, Thanks Jon

Jackone thank you. Format I like, with concise explanations that even wallies like me can follow. As to the content, well still nothing substantial in the near term and its hard to see where its coming from with the highs over the content continuing? Again my untrained eye! but the low (992mb) as seen on Fri 2nd charts, off the Portuguese coast, seems to get squeezed out by highs to East and West. If this should verify wouldn't it lose most of its steam before hitting the alps? This only to be followed in by another high!!! Although that is well into the longer range by that point. As you say still up in the air at this stage, lets just keep our fingers crossed. Thanks Jon

Hi all, again just to say I am no expert, so please correct me (anybody), but the models do seem to be pointing to a much more unsettled period, which can only be good. Precipitation charts from GFS do show some precipitation rolling in from the Atlantic towards the end of next week (see ensemble for 192t bellow) for the Alps. Also GEM and JMA tell a similar story. I know this is still someway off, especially for precipitation charts, but hopefully shows a trend back to more seasonal conditions and at least a start to that snow base we all feel should be building up by now. Keep the faith! Jon

I believe this was this theory has been tried this year already, Feb-Apr. Finally delivering a fresh dumping of snow to the alps (French resorts anywho) in June? The picture for December is still uncertain. As I said before the models really can't make there minds up at the mo. Something near average would be a blessing at this point. But I agree things are looking desperate at the mo. Anybody know any wise old mountain men??? Keep the faith

In response to my own ranting last night http://www.weather-fore/cast.com has turned up the following this morn. Are they on to something....

It's looking like a very snowless alps for the foreseeable. I check the http://www.weather-forecast.com/ regular and compare this with real world outcome and would say they general give an accurate mountain forecast. I have attached two jpegs of there forecast from 19/11/11 18:00 just to illustrate how crazy the models are at the moment (sorry if this isn't allowed). Notice the blip Fri 25th through Saturday 26th (Nov) surly this isn't realistic. That didn't appear on the 06:00 and Thurs 18:00 had this period different again, dry and high Freeze levels and Lower light snow respectively. The models are just bouncing all sorts of ideas around giving us false hope! (in the long range) I am certainly no expert!!! But can't see any thing other than the same continuing for the next 2 weeks, that euro block isn't going anywhere for a while. Sorry to be so neg, lets just hope I am proved wrong. Heading to Cham 17th Dec. Think am going to make enquirers about bike hire Edit: files named in wrong order, look at the 2nd (right most) first for date order

NOOB here. First post so go easy on us! Have been trying to follow this thread in the search of something wintry for the Western Alps. Has anybody been following the jet stream in the models? Mr Fish and the BBC chap both point to the jet as part of our current mild stuck in a rut. Just had a look at the GFS charts for jet stream. From my very un trained eye it looks like it is trying to move further north (from 60+) which would indicate a change to current patterns? Have I just made this up or is there anything in the jet stream modeling to indicate change Thanks all J