[Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread]

jeesus flip! I dont know what the windspeeds will be over the north on the 18z gfs, but it looks pretty potent..

I make that a mean wind speed on the north coast of Ireland, and then across scotland of 60mph, gusts to over 100mph and probably then some ..

[Ex Ts Katia To Hit The UK - Chat Thread]

looks like its shifting south on the 12Z gfs going on the jetstream digging more beforehand - I'm normaly wrong though!

[UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts]

I agree with you RE rank for storms Paul! One thing I've noticed over the last few years is that storms have no problem exploding when they get into the north sea - its more about synoptics than sst's for the channel. There must be some reason why the dividing line is in the same place every time and we dont get a look in -

[UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts]

wondering if thats a wave forming on the cold front heading up past brest - might make things interesting if so ..

storms for me by the way, although I love snow

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

Yes he did.

[New Iceage? Much Evidence? - Global Cooling]

hey all

As I ride out the fifth non continental style summer, cant help wondering about the temperature anomolies around us - i Just stumbled on the met office model's prediction for twice the co2 as we have now, and its not a million miles away in principle to the 'weather' the planet has expierenced in the last 5 years imo - http://www.sciencephoto.com/media/160492/enlarge.

Saying that, I'm still yet to be convinced that warming is happening, but the anomolous nwerly every summer for us is making me worry!

sam

[25th into 26th Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports]

Keep us updated S4Lancia

[25th into 26th Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports]

wow that looks potent!

[25th into 26th Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports]

Nice intense line showing up over Lyme bay/Chesil at the moment...

[22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports]

seems to be some development south of lyme bay, and south of the iow - probably nothing, but you never know -

[22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports]

boo!

I give up with the UK!

[22nd into 23rd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports]

the wrfnmm on metieociel (usualy pretty acurate) looks pretty promissing http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

06z rolling out. Seems to be stuck on T120, but we're not a million miles away from a short lived spanish plume imo -

[Model Discussion - 27th July]

interesting though that the 20c+ 850 spike on one of the 12z ensemble members ties in with 15c 850's on the 18z gfs op at 240 Hours -

[2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports]

Coast what radar are you using ?

[2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports]

seems to be cells kicking off now in the south - presumably due to the increase in cape and misture pooiling where the winds are converging - the WRF NMM was predicting something like 700kj cape in a narrow region stretching NE up the country for 16:00 onwards -

Sam

[2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports]

cells near oxford and reading!, one further south just north of Salisbury (Acording to raintoday radar) - is it kicking off?!!!!!!!

[2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports]

haha. i that a cell going up directly above Salisbury ?? :o

[2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports]

i'm going to take a stab at some activity forming roughly around the salisbury area a bit later thisafternoon - dont take my forecasts seriousely whatever you do though!

[2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports]

seems to be something heading for the IOW right now, doesnt look massively potent, but its building

[Arizona Desert Monsoon Chasing]

Hey Sam

The Venezuela 180 Day Permanant Thunderstorm was talked about.................But the logistics and 10 days of seeing the Same Phenomena kind of put us off doing this. Also you need to fly to Venezuela and then get about 3 Internal Flights just to reach the area.

There is a company based in Scotland that runs trips to see the Lightning but they have 10 day trips which includes about 8 days of Hiking and 1-2 days at the Lake, they also sort out the 3 Internal Flights I believe.

There is more chance of us Running a Tornado Trip to Argentina in their Season which is November- January for example, the Plains West of the Mountain range is a back to front version of the Rockies in Colorado for example, and storms move to the SW With the Hook on the NW Side :wacko:

That would take some getting used too!

Paul S

Ah yeah I can see why.. 3 flights would be too much for me anyway - It takes enough out of me just to get on one .. maybe oneday when (if) I've got the time to make my way there though.

[1 Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast, Discussion And Reports]

well, hopefully the less chance of imports, the less chance of a decayed anvil canopy destroying our insolation this side of the channel ... Tomorrow evening still looks promissing to me -

[Arizona Desert Monsoon Chasing]

Lol. Yeah odd for pulse storms - I'd love to see it though. If I had the money I'd come along

Massively off topic Paul, but how about a 1 off chase to see this semi-permament storm - from what I can tell where the river enters the lake the riverbed decomposes so much that the methane creates a fixed updraft - sailors have used the storm as a beacon for hundreds of years - one of the places I need to see before I pop it. http://boingboing.net/2009/08/24/venezuelas-continuou.html

Sorry al! - im back on topic now!

Sam

[Arizona Desert Monsoon Chasing]

I dont think you'll need lightning triggers!

Sam

[Arizona Desert Monsoon Chasing]

"immediate, excruciating pain that simply shuts down one's ability to do anything, except, perhaps, scream. Mental discipline simply does not work in these situations"

nice .....