anvilhead

GFS 12z for cirencester: Monday Midday: 1c (Winds Easterly) Tuesday Midday: 1c (Winds SEasterly) Wednesday Midday: 1c (Winds ESEasterly) Thursday Midday: 1c (Winds Easterly) Friday Midday: 0c (Winds Northerly) Friday Midnight -2c (-10 in wales) (Winds Col) GFS's been moving towards bringing down temps over the last 3 runs - disrupting the trough and sending a low into the med - While I dont use the gfs as gospel, and other models right now show more displacement of the high to the east and milder temps moving in, but its not written in stone. I think only a fetch not from the SE will give us any breakdown in the cold right now due to the cold continent- my money is on a disrupting trough, and SE'ly to Easterly throughout next week, although I personaly want an end to this cold!

most probable outlook to me looks like a continuation of high pressure to the north, southerly jet and low pressure over europe from the early to mid term, with a lobe of the pv over to our far NE possibly being in place for a relead/reinforcement of the cold flow come the middle of the month, with another NE'ly ... I would wager trough disruption not an attack from the atlantic, and the repeating waa involved to pull the high back towards greenland and open the floodgates again from the east wouldnt be too much of a suprise the way this winters going. I dont really see a mild/cold battle developing in the SW - maybe im missing something there Crazy spell of weather ...

lol I just went to get a coffee with the lady, then droped my front door key in the snow. she sat in the car, i felt around in the dark for 20 minutes rifling through the snow with bare hands. lol. i think my fingers will fall off

here it comes! Must go pick up the lady - ill be watching the snowfall like a hawk lol - she thinks I'm mad good luck all!!!!!

where Pat ?

I've been looking at that Potsy. Almost looks like a small low there, and also off the sw tip - may well just be local convergences etc though .. We've got the summer supercells to come Daisy

Lol. I'm so lazy at cleaning probably not actualy ...

Yeah it feels like a different kettle of fish all together this winter - 10 years of model watching on the internet, desperately clutching to a chart at 240h that, just by luck, put us in an easterly fetch for 2 days.. bust after bust after bust .. we had about 1cm of snow here in the dec part of this cold spell - hardly anything, but it lasted for weeks in the shadows, and I would wager now that things are turning serious. 2 foot of snow for a fortnight would certainly separate the hardcore extreme fanatics from those who just have a gap in thier childhood due to unlucky synoptics! Anywhere decent for sledging by the air baloon? - SW forum sledgefest anyone ? :o Sam

I tell you what its great to see falling snow without marginal temps - it feels like we're entering the next phase of this winter with the SW coming onboard. 4ft of level snow in scotland - I wonder how long the snow around here will stay around - looking at the charts it could well be built on. I remember reading the accounts for 47 & 63 (yip - sorry to drag them up!) - the most striking reading being snow amounts gradualy creeping up around the country. we shall see hey

haha good! my reverse psychology worked Thats a cracker - we're on for a foot Dogs looking at that

I wont argue the science with you Lynxus - I can see you like to forecast too and I hope I'm wrong!!. The flash warnings are never unwarranted if there's more than a remote chance of things happening - lives can be lost by forecasters wanting to be too confident before issuing a warning.

I'll stick my neck out and say the NAE will play catch up now, with the heaviest precip staying east of where its forecasted for - not that areas will miss out, just less depth .. My views are that the MetO quite possibly put too much weight on thier own model - that doesn't mean I disrespect certain members who post in here! Hopefully I'll be wrong!

starting to snow here now - pretty big flakes. I take it thats the wrap around just nosing in going by radar. To me, NAE looks good for here - GFS is taking less of the 700mb lift (vv) around the top of the low and so the same area to be hit, but less precip stretching west .. if we wake up with half the amounts predicted i wont be suprised, but hell its snowcover, so not dissapointed either. If this was scotland with 4ft level snow, id have lost my cats by now!

Hey Pat. Good question - I dont have a clue lol. I did hear that a low pressure goes in a direction prependicular to its warm front, so I hope we dont get left in marginal temps and less precip, and the damn thing slides east lol. nah I'm sure its pretty nailed on now - maybe 2 foot instead of 1 ?

i think its deepened more than modeled too sk (looking at xcweather), so id imagine the next nae will show slightly higher ppn, but a more noticeable mild sector - i could easily be wrong though

I'm guessing the low has deepened more than expected looking at xcweather ..

not looking too bad for the west country at the mo going on the latest gfs - the front looses intensity as it passes here (Cirencester), but Lift seems to increase and pep things up as it heads south - I'd imagine the SW peninsula will get a good covering from this ... sam

Good post jonesy - Its an extremely interesting Topic - would love to find out the details but it may well be off purpose for this thread! maybe we can start one ? I have a suspicion that the first thing to change will be where the mean jetstream troughs sit, with more heat exchange with the pole and more extreme troughing - I believe theres a small chance we're seeing this now, with air racing up the western side of continents, and troughing over the cooler seas - might even explain the warm summers of the late 90's & 00's, then the switch in the last 3 years to a stark dividing line between the continent's heat, and troughing over the BI, along with WAA and northern blocking. Anyway .. completely off topic - sorry mods!

I follow you. I sit on the fence with AGW, but thats purely because I dont know both sides of the argument - infact any side to any decision making depth. I still maintain he has a good track record though, and for that fact in isolation he is listened to I believe ...

Thats taken from www.accuweather.com - Joe laminate floori and his european column, although you may realise this allready. In my opinion yes his presentation needs a bit of brushing up to say the least, but he's on top of his telleconnective forecasting and has a very good track record - a big hitter in the weather world imo. He was forecasting this cold spell before the charts we're, that's for sure, and all forums take note of his blog with a fair bit of weight (Steve Murr has a quote of his as his signature at the moment). Still .. it is a bit dramatic thats for sure! And he does seem to use his European outlet to rant about the global warming myth Edit: I see the antiprofanity filter has swapped his sirname with some random text lol! - basicaly fatherless, with an extra 'I' at the end!

yeah we've got wind moving up the B channel at the moment towards the NE- looks like it adds a degree or two to the temps. Maybe they'll back more westerly as the trough comes through propper - low dp's will come into play when the precip gets to a certain rate, so I wont worry too much here if it starts as rain maybe ..

i'd say the showers are moving SE, but the trough itself is moving more due south, so maybe in time -

gonna be a close call here in cirencester temp wise! come on snow! :lol: Pat, what have you got there?

cheers Ian - looks great! Tuesday evening looking good right now (well acording to gfs anyway!) - short wave trough forms a lp on the sw peninsula at 19:00 tuesday, which then slips SW towards brest by 01:00 wednesday placing our area in a tight NE pressure gradient around the low with some nottable ppn - temps marginal in the extreme SW and north coasts maybe to start with, but minima well below 0c being drawn in all the time, even here it should become snow - I think the fax charts show less development for this feature - showing it as a wave on the main front down in biscay ? - maybe someone who can read this better could fill me in though. I'm also not sure how this low actualy forms - theres no jet entrance/exit - maybe its purely vorticity advection from that trough? Either way, stunning synoptics for this coming week. Here's to some intense radar/lamppost watching edit: btw i'm using http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/index.php - GFS HR 0.5 model /..

thats had some intense ppn rates for a while PaulT - fingers crossed!